ZXFC(002915) 光大证券·2025-04-08 07:16Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [5] Core Views - The company's gross margin is under pressure due to declining product prices and goodwill impairment, leading to a forecasted net profit loss for 2024 [1] - The company is expected to generate revenue between 1.4 billion to 1.42 billion yuan in 2024, with a projected net loss of 200 million to 180 million yuan [1] - The company has a complete fluorochemical industry chain, expanding from traditional pharmaceutical and pesticide sectors to new materials [2] - The recovery in the pesticide industry is anticipated to stabilize product prices and improve profitability [2] - The company’s profitability is expected to gradually recover as downstream demand increases and new production capacities are released [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company is projected to have a revenue of 1.418 billion yuan, a slight increase from 1.344 billion yuan in 2023, but a significant drop in net profit to -192 million yuan [4][8] - The gross margin is expected to decline to 7.7% in 2024 from 13.6% in 2023 [10] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be -0.59 yuan in 2024, compared to -0.57 yuan in 2023 [4][10] Production Capacity and Market Outlook - New production capacities for fluorobenzene, fluoroketone, and electronic-grade hydrogen fluoride are expected to come online, but low utilization rates may hinder profitability [1][2] - The company is planning to write down goodwill for its subsidiaries, which will impact overall performance [1] Valuation Metrics - The report projects a decline in net profit for 2024, with subsequent recovery expected in 2025 and 2026, forecasting net profits of 28 million and 75 million yuan respectively [3][4] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 50 in 2026, indicating a potential recovery in profitability [10][11]