Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for China XLX Fertiliser with a target price of HK3.99 [1][8]. Core Insights - In 2024, the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 22.96% year-on-year, driven by significant investment income from the sale of a subsidiary [5][6]. - The company achieved a revenue of 23.129 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decrease of 1.48% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 3.931 billion yuan, down 6.12% [5][6]. - The board proposed a dividend policy for 2025-2027 with a distribution ratio of at least 25% of audited net profit attributable to shareholders, and a minimum dividend of 0.24 yuan per share [5][6]. Revenue Breakdown - The fertilizer segment accounted for 58% of total revenue, while the chemical segment contributed 37% in 2024 [6][7]. - Urea revenue increased by 6.3% year-on-year to 7.306 billion yuan, with a sales volume growth of 29% [6][7]. - Compound fertilizers saw a revenue decrease of 2% to 5.994 billion yuan, with a slight sales volume decline of 0.3% [6][7]. - Methanol revenue grew by 14.5% year-on-year to 2.678 billion yuan, with a sales volume increase of 16% [6][7]. Ongoing Projects - The company is progressing with ongoing projects, including a 60,000-tonne polyformaldehyde project and a 300,000-tonne compound fertilizer project, both expected to enhance market presence [7][8]. - Future projects include a 920,000-tonne compound fertilizer and 160,000-tonne melamine facility, expected to start production in early 2027 [7][8]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for 2025-2027 shows a projected net profit of 1.153 billion yuan in 2025, down 29.95%, followed by 1.611 billion yuan in 2026 and 2.142 billion yuan in 2027 [8][6]. - The target price is set at HK$5.18, based on a PE ratio of 5.3 times for 2025 [8].
中国心连心化肥（01866）：母公司拥有人应占溢利同比增长22.96%，产能扩张提升市场份额