CRCC(601186) 国信证券·2025-04-09 06:42Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for China Railway Construction Corporation (601186.SH) [5][19][3] Core Views - The company experienced revenue and profit pressure in 2024, with total revenue of 1,067.2 billion yuan, down 6.2% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 22.22 billion yuan, down 14.9% year-on-year. The fourth quarter saw a revenue of 309 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 6.52 billion yuan, down 2.4% year-on-year. Despite the overall industry downturn, the company’s proactive investment contraction led to a significant reduction in investment losses, with a non-recurring net profit increase of 6.6% year-on-year in Q4 [6][3][19] - The company’s overseas new contract signing continued to grow, with a total of 3,120 billion yuan in new overseas contracts, up 23.4% year-on-year, while total new contracts signed for the year were 30,370 billion yuan, down 7.8% year-on-year. The company is optimizing its investment structure, significantly reducing new contracts in investment operation businesses by 65.6% year-on-year [7][3][19] - The overall gross margin slightly decreased to 10.27%, down 0.13 percentage points year-on-year, with a more significant decline in Q4 to 7.79%, down 5.60 percentage points year-on-year. The company effectively controlled expenses, with a total expense ratio of 5.89%, up 0.42 percentage points year-on-year, while management, research and development, and sales expenses all saw declines [9][2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 1,067.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 22.22 billion yuan, down 14.9% year-on-year. The fourth quarter figures were 309 billion yuan in revenue and 6.52 billion yuan in net profit [6][3][4] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities turned negative at -31.42 billion yuan, with a collection ratio of 100.5% and a payment ratio of 103.2% [15][2] Investment and Contracts - The total new contracts signed in 2024 were 30,370 billion yuan, down 7.8% year-on-year, with overseas contracts increasing by 23.4% to 3,120 billion yuan. The company is shifting focus from investment-driven construction to optimizing investment operations [7][3][19] Profitability and Margins - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 10.27%, with a significant drop in Q4 to 7.79%. The company maintained expense control, resulting in a stable overall profitability despite increased competition [9][2][3] Future Outlook - The report forecasts net profits for the next three years at 22.1 billion yuan, 22.6 billion yuan, and 22.6 billion yuan, with earnings per share projected at 1.63 yuan, 1.66 yuan, and 1.67 yuan respectively. The current price-to-earnings ratio is estimated at 4.97, 4.87, and 4.90 for the next three years [19][4][3]