博瑞医药2024年报点评：业绩稳健，BGM0504推进III期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][3] Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a reported revenue of 1.283 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting an 8.74% year-on-year increase. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 6.57% to 189 million yuan due to increased expenses [11] - The company is advancing its BGM0504 project into Phase III clinical trials, with promising results in Phase II for both glycemic control and weight loss [11] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 1.283 billion yuan in 2024 to 1.960 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.7%, 23.2%, 12.2%, and 10.6% respectively [9] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 57.5% in 2024 to 59.8% in 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [9] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 0.61, 0.71, and 0.81 yuan respectively, reflecting an upward revision from previous estimates [3][9] Segment Performance Summary - The raw material drug segment achieved revenue of 988 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.57%, driven by strong demand for antifungal and immunosuppressive products [11] - The formulation segment reported revenue of 161 million yuan, up 16.77% year-on-year, primarily due to increased sales of specific products [11] Valuation Summary - Based on comparable companies, a target price of 37.21 yuan is set for 2025, corresponding to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 61 times [3][12]