Chanhen(002895) 光大证券·2025-04-10 07:44Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company achieved significant revenue growth in 2024, with total revenue reaching 5.906 billion, a year-on-year increase of 36.72%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 956 million, up 24.80% [1][4]. - The sales volume of phosphate chemical products saw a notable increase, driven by enhanced capacity utilization and new capacity release at the company's Guangxi base [2]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 12 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 646 million, which represents a 20.0% increase year-on-year and a payout ratio of 67.6% [2]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In Q4 2024, the company reported a single-quarter revenue of 1.932 billion, a year-on-year increase of 54.83% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 29.73% [1]. - The sales volumes for key products in 2024 were 370,000 tons of calcium dihydrogen phosphate, 266,000 tons of monoammonium phosphate, and 315,000 tons of phosphoric acid, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.8%, 15.7%, and 107.9% respectively [2]. Capacity Expansion and Resource Integration - The company’s phosphate rock production reached approximately 3.15 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, with growth primarily from technical upgrades at existing mines [3]. - The company is expanding its upstream phosphate rock resources through acquisitions and ongoing construction of new mining capacities [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.289 billion, 1.573 billion, and 1.847 billion respectively, with a downward adjustment for 2026 due to delays in some mining projects [4][5]. - The report projects a continuous expansion of the company's upstream phosphate rock resources and an improvement in the integrated phosphate chemical industry chain [4].