汇率弹性增加后，降息节奏如何演绎

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - After the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, RMB exchange rate fluctuations have intensified, and the RMB has also depreciated against some non - US currencies such as the euro and the yen. The subsequent interest rate cut may be slow, and the window period may appear in the middle of the year [2][4] - Since 2023, external balance has significantly affected the domestic interest rate cut rhythm. The central bank's exchange rate management aims for stability, and the step - by - step increase in the central parity rate reflects the gentle and orderly release of exchange rate pressure [4][7] - In the medium term, there are signs of a slowdown in the US economy, and there may be a window period for an interest rate cut in mid - 2025 [4][14] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. How will the interest rate cut rhythm evolve after the increase in exchange rate flexibility? - Exchange rate fluctuations after reciprocal tariffs: After the implementation of reciprocal tariffs on April 3, the on - shore RMB exchange rate has been rising for 4 consecutive trading days, with the central rate moving up from 7.27 to 7.35. The offshore RMB exchange rate has also depreciated, breaking through 7.4 on April 9. The US dollar index has been weak, and the RMB has depreciated against some non - US currencies [4][6] - Impact of external balance on interest rate cut rhythm: Since 2023, external balance has significantly affected the domestic interest rate cut rhythm. In 2024, the first policy interest rate cut was in late July, mainly due to exchange rate pressure [4][7] - Exchange rate management and interest rate cut prediction: The central bank's exchange rate management aims for stability. The step - by - step increase in the on - shore central parity rate to over 7.2% reflects the orderly release of exchange rate pressure. The central bank will likely maintain its stance in exchange rate regulation, with reserve requirement ratio cuts taking precedence over interest rate cuts, and the latter may be slow [4][12] - Medium - term interest rate cut window: There are signs of a slowdown in the US economy. The market has priced in a more than 50% probability of a Fed interest rate cut in May, and mid - year may be a good time for a domestic interest rate cut [4][14]