Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Insights - The company achieved a contract sales amount of approximately 363 billion yuan for self-invested projects in Q1 2025, with a cumulative total of 524 billion yuan for the group [2]. - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 1585.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.7%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 48.8% to 15.96 billion yuan [2]. - The decline in net profit is attributed to losses from joint ventures and increased impairment provisions totaling 49.17 billion yuan, which is 28.82 billion yuan higher than the previous year [3]. - The company’s property sales revenue reached 1470.2 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 92.7% of total revenue, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.9% [3]. - The company’s total contract sales amount for 2024 was 2768 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.1% year-on-year, with self-invested sales down 11.6% [3]. - The company has a strong market presence in core cities, with 79% of sales coming from first and second-tier cities, and it ranks first in market share in eight cities [3]. Financial Performance - The company’s total land reserve consists of 146 projects with a total buildable area of 27.47 million square meters, of which 18.43 million square meters are for sale [4]. - The company’s financing channels remain robust, with domestic bond issuance of 12.531 billion yuan in 2024 and a total interest-bearing debt financing cost of 3.7%, down 40 basis points year-on-year [4]. - The projected net profit for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is adjusted to 1.83 billion yuan, 2.30 billion yuan, and 2.74 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.6%, 25.7%, and 19.1% [4]. - The company’s current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 13.2, 10.5, and 8.8 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4]. Market Conditions - The report notes that the real estate market continues to face challenges, including lower-than-expected policy implementation and ongoing sales sluggishness [5].
绿城中国（03900）：减值拖累业绩下滑，投销表现维持强势