如果告诉你，一台晚会没有顶流明星撑场、主角全是"普通人"，却能成为跨越全国20座城市的年度文化 事件，并持续吸引数万家庭参与22年——你或许会认为这只是个理想化的故事。 但这就是在绿城，实实在在发生的事。 2月7日晚，上海音乐厅的灯光为一场特别的"春晚"点亮。当《相亲相爱一家人》的全场合唱声落下帷 幕，2026绿城业主春晚上海站在温暖与掌声中圆满定格。这场晚会，主角是近百位来自上海及启东各绿 城园区的普通业主，节目涵盖从少儿越剧、太极功夫到现代乐队等十余种形式。它的特别之处在于，这 并非一场孤立的年终活动，而是绿城持续运营了二十二年的全国性IP"绿城春晚，家礼中国"在上海的首 次落地。 从"观众"到"主角"，让温情在专业舞台绽放 与许多品牌单方主导、业主被动参与的活动不同，这场春晚的魅力在于其"共享、共乐、共创、共建"的 真实底色。 舞台上银发业主的优雅走秀、少儿戏曲的有模有样、业主乐队的倾情弹唱，其生命力均源自日常社区中 自然生长的兴趣社群。绿城的角色，更像是一个平台的搭建者和资源的连接者——邀请资深导演许晨云 提供专业支撑，组织业主、绿城服务团队从节目海选到排练的数月筹备，最终在专业级艺术殿堂呈现精 彩演 ...

来源：观点地产网 观点网讯：2月9日，穆迪确认绿城中国"B1"公司家族评级（CFR）及其高级无抵押评级，评级展望维 持"稳定"。 评级确认反映了绿城中国在房地产行业长期低迷背景下，凭借既有市场地位、审慎的财务管理以及多元 化融资渠道，维持了稳健的运营记录、平稳的信用指标与良好的流动性。绿城中国与国有第一大股东中 国交通建设集团有限公司的持续关联，有利于公司融资与运营安排。 穆迪预计，绿城中国未来12-18个月合同销售仍将跑赢市场整体，预测2026年总合同销售额降幅约为 5%-7%，较2025年的11%有所收窄；其品牌知名度、市场地位及高线城市布局被视为对冲行业压力的重 要因素。 财务方面，穆迪预计绿城中国将继续利用盈余现金减少债务，并依托境内多元化融资渠道控制融资成 本。经调整债务/EBITDA将保持在8.0倍以下，经调整EBIT/利息覆盖率约为3.0倍，处于"B1"评级对应的 较强水平。 截至2025年6月底，绿城中国非限制性现金约620亿元人民币，可覆盖同期约230亿元人民币的短期债 务。穆迪认为，公司现金储备与经营现金流足以覆盖未来12–18个月到期债务、已承诺土地款及股息。 穆迪指出，稳定展望反映其预 ...

Market Performance - The real estate sector (CITIC) had a weekly performance of 0.0%, while the CSI 300 and Wind All A indices decreased by -1.3% and -1.5% respectively, resulting in excess returns of 1.3% and 1.4%[5] - Among 29 CITIC industry sectors, real estate ranked 15th in performance[5] New Housing Market - In the week from January 31 to February 6, 2026, the new housing transaction area in 36 cities was 1.392 million square meters, down 2.9% week-on-week but up 175.7% year-on-year[10] - Cumulative transactions from February 1 to February 6 reached 1.204 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 257.9%[10] - Year-to-date transactions as of February 6 totaled 6.798 million square meters, down 16.2% year-on-year[10] Second-Hand Housing Market - For the same week, the transaction area for second-hand housing in 15 cities was 1.644 million square meters, down 3.6% week-on-week but up 245.8% year-on-year[16] - Cumulative transactions from February 1 to February 6 were 1.535 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 423.1%[16] - Year-to-date transactions as of February 6 totaled 8.383 million square meters, up 37.1% year-on-year[16] Inventory and Depletion Cycle - Cumulative new housing inventory in 13 cities was 77.165 million square meters, down 0.7% week-on-week and down 4.6% year-on-year[24] - The new housing depletion cycle for these cities is 22.9 months, with a week-on-week change of -0.1 months and a year-on-year change of +6.2 months[24] Land Market - The land transaction area from February 2 to February 8 was 1.1863 million square meters, down 44.9% week-on-week and down 36.0% year-on-year[43] - The average land price was 1,552 RMB per square meter, up 42.8% week-on-week and up 71.5% year-on-year[43] - Year-to-date land transactions as of February 8 totaled 10.556 million square meters, down 15.8% year-on-year[43] Investment Recommendations - Recommended mainland developers include A-shares: Binhai Group, China Merchants Shekou; Hong Kong stocks: China Overseas Development, Greentown China, China Resources Land, Jianfa International Group[9] - For light asset operation companies, recommended property management companies include Greentown Service and commercial management companies like China Resources Vientiane Life[9] Risk Factors - Risks include potential delays in the relaxation of real estate control policies, continued industry downturns, and ongoing credit risks leading to liquidity deterioration[5]

2月9日穆迪已确认绿城中国控股有限公司（Greentown China Holdings Limited简称"绿城中 国"03900.HK）的"B1"公司家族评级（CFR）及其高级无抵押评级。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the real estate sector, specifically highlighting the promotion of "good housing" construction in Fujian [2]. Core Insights - The report indicates a seasonal decline in new and second-hand housing transactions, with new housing transaction area in 20 cities decreasing by 9% week-on-week but increasing by 147% year-on-year. The total transaction area for new housing was 170 million square meters [22][21]. - The second-hand housing market showed a similar trend, with a 7% week-on-week decrease but a 174% year-on-year increase in transaction area, totaling 199 million square meters [27][24]. - The report emphasizes the importance of addressing three key issues in the real estate market: declining new housing demand, unresolved inventory, and the negative impact of land finance on the economy [6]. Industry Data - The real estate sector consists of 107 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 1,270.7 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of about 1,217.1 billion yuan [2]. - The sector's performance in the past month shows an absolute increase of 2.3%, a 6-month increase of 7.4%, and a 12-month increase of 12.8% [3]. Policy Developments - Fujian province has introduced measures to stabilize the real estate market, focusing on promoting housing consumption and inventory reduction, including optimizing shared ownership policies and encouraging the purchase of existing homes [15][18]. - Gansu province has adjusted its housing provident fund loan policies, increasing the maximum loan amounts for single and married contributors [15][18]. Sales Performance - In the first week of February, the average daily transaction area for new housing in 20 cities was 24.3 million square meters, with a cumulative transaction area of 838 million square meters year-to-date, reflecting a 28% year-on-year decrease [22][21]. - The report notes that the average transaction area for second-hand housing in 11 cities was 28.5 million square meters, with a cumulative area of 1,067 million square meters year-to-date, indicating a 23% year-on-year increase [27][24]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on three areas to find alpha in the real estate sector: precision in land acquisition for developers, stable income assets such as leading shopping centers, and leading real estate agencies that enhance transaction efficiency [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the real estate sector, specifically highlighting the promotion of "good housing" construction in Fujian [2]. Core Insights - The report indicates a seasonal decline in new and second-hand housing transactions, with new housing transaction volume in 20 cities decreasing by 9% week-on-week but increasing by 147% year-on-year. Second-hand housing transactions in 11 cities also saw a week-on-week decrease of 7% but a year-on-year increase of 174% [6][21][27]. - The report emphasizes the importance of addressing three key issues in the real estate market: the decline in new housing demand, unresolved inventory issues, and the negative impact of land finance on the economy [6]. Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The real estate sector comprises 107 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 1,270.717 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 1,217.136 billion yuan [2]. Sales Performance - In the sixth week, the average daily transaction area for new housing in 20 cities was 24.3 million square meters, with a total transaction area of 170 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 147% [22][21]. - The average daily transaction area for second-hand housing in 11 cities was 28.5 million square meters, with a total transaction area of 199 million square meters, showing a year-on-year increase of 174% [27][30]. Policy News - Fujian Province has introduced measures to stabilize the real estate market, focusing on promoting housing consumption and inventory reduction, including optimizing shared ownership policies and encouraging the purchase of existing homes [15][18]. - Gansu Province has adjusted its housing provident fund loan policies, increasing the maximum loan amounts for single and married contributors [15][18]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on three areas to find alpha in the real estate sector: precision in land acquisition for developers, investment in leading shopping centers, and monitoring leading real estate agencies for efficiency improvements [6].

证券研究报告 房地产 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 09 日 证券分析师 邓力 SAC：S1350525070006 dengli@jzsec.com 陈颖 SAC：S1350525110002 chenying02@huayuanstock.com 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 上海三区启动收储二手房，关注地产板块配置价值 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——房地产行业周报（26/1/31-26/2/6） 投资要点： 风险提示：房地产量价超预期下行、房地产融资资金趋紧、房地产政策不及预期。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 板块行情：本周上证指数下跌 1.3%、深证成指下跌 2.1%、创业板指下跌 3.3%、沪深 300 下 跌 1.3%、房地产（申万）上升 0.0%。个股方面，涨跌幅前五的分别为：京投发展(+23.7%)、 荣安地产(+13.7%)、皇庭国际(+13.4%)、珠免集团(+12.1%)、ST 中迪(+11.1%)，涨跌幅后五 的分别为：南山控股(-10.6%)、先导基电(-8.9%)、三湘印象(-8.8%)、*ST 中地 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4] Core Insights - The report highlights the significance of Shanghai's new policy to acquire second-hand housing for affordable rental housing, indicating a strong signal in a declining market. The policy aims to link demand for affordable housing with improvement needs, potentially activating the market by directing purchasing power to higher-priced new and second-hand homes [11][12] - The report emphasizes that the real estate sector serves as an early economic indicator, suggesting that investing in real estate is akin to investing in economic trends. The competitive landscape is expected to improve, benefiting leading state-owned enterprises and quality developers [4] - The report suggests focusing on first-tier cities and select second- and third-tier cities, as this combination has shown better performance during market rebounds [4] Summary by Sections 1. Shanghai's Housing Acquisition Policy - Shanghai has initiated a program to acquire second-hand housing for affordable rental purposes, with pilot areas including Pudong, Jing'an, and Xuhui, each having distinct acquisition criteria and models [11] - The policy aims to match housing types with talent needs, focusing on low-priced, small-sized properties to stimulate market activity [12] 2. Market Review - The report notes that the real estate index has shown minimal change, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.34 percentage points. A total of 73 stocks in the real estate sector increased in value, while 40 stocks decreased [15] - The top-performing stocks included Jinglan Technology and Qianjing Garden, with significant weekly gains [21] 3. New and Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the week leading up to February 6, new housing transactions in 30 cities totaled 131.2 million square meters, a 5.2% decrease from the previous week but a 138.2% increase year-on-year. First-tier cities saw a 4.0% increase week-on-week [26] - Second-hand housing transactions in 15 sample cities totaled 204.5 million square meters, reflecting a 3.5% decrease week-on-week but a 717.5% increase year-on-year [35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting the recovery potential of quality real estate companies and commercial real estate [2][31]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the real estate sector is approaching a bottom in its fundamentals after a deep adjustment, with recent central government policies aimed at stabilizing the market. The report emphasizes the importance of quality real estate companies, predicting that their profit recovery will occur sooner and be more resilient [2][31]. - The report recommends several quality real estate companies and commercial real estate firms, including Jianfa International, Binjiang Group, Greentown China, China Jinmao, and Poly Development, as well as commercial real estate firms like New City Holdings and China Resources Land [2][31]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transactions - In the week of January 31 to February 6, 2026, new home transactions in 34 key cities totaled 1.974 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 6.9%. The transaction volume in first and second-tier cities decreased by 3.1%, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a significant drop of 39.4% [3][4]. - Year-on-year, new home transactions in February increased by 327.2%, with first and second-tier cities up by 347.8% and third and fourth-tier cities up by 168.9% [4][10]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - In the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 key cities totaled 1.198 million square meters, also down by 6.9% week-on-week. However, year-to-date transactions showed a 27.4% increase compared to the previous year [10][31]. Inventory and Supply - The report notes that 15 cities had a total of 290,000 square meters of new supply, with a sales-to-supply ratio of 2.62 times. The total available residential area in these cities was 88.525 million square meters, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.52% [21][31]. Policy and News Tracking - The report highlights significant policy developments, including the acceleration of commercial real estate REITs applications, with over 10 applications submitted to exchanges as of February 6, 2026. Additionally, Shanghai is advancing the acquisition of second-hand homes for rental housing, with pilot areas identified [31][32]. - Various regions, including Tianjin, Sichuan, and Hainan, have adjusted the minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans to no less than 30% [31][32].

2026年1月，绿城集团取得合同销售面积约22万平方米，合同销售金额约人民币63亿元；其中归属于绿 城集团的权益金额约为人民币42亿元。 央广网北京2月6日消息（记者门庭婷）2月5日，绿城中国发布截至2026年1月31日止一个月未经审核营 运数据。 2026年1月，绿城集团自投项目取得销售1179套，销售面积约18万平方米，当月销售金额约为人民币61 亿元，销售均价约为每平方米人民币34345元。 于2026年1月31日，另有累计已签认购协议未转销售合同的金额约人民币28亿元，其中归属于绿城集团 的权益金额约为人民币18亿元。 2026年1月，绿城集团代建项目取得销售面积约25万平方米，销售金额约人民币34亿元。 综上，截至2026年1月31日止一个月，绿城集团累计取得总合同销售面积约47万平方米，总合同销售金 额约人民币97亿元。 ...