Yanjing Brewery(000729) 光大证券·2025-04-11 05:27Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yanjing Beer, indicating expected returns exceeding the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Views - Yanjing Beer achieved a revenue of 14.67 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.06 billion yuan, up 63.7% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s flagship product, Yanjing U8, saw a sales volume of 696,000 kiloliters in 2024, representing a significant growth of 31.4% year-on-year, contributing to the overall revenue and profit growth [2]. - The company is entering the beverage market with the launch of "Beiste Soda," aiming to diversify its product offerings and reduce reliance on beer sales [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Yanjing Beer expects a net profit of 160-172 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 55.96%-67.66% [1]. - The company’s net profit margin for 2024 was 7.2%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved operational efficiency [2]. Sales and Market Strategy - Yanjing Beer sold 4.0044 million kiloliters of beer in 2024, marking a 1.57% increase despite an overall industry decline [2]. - The company is focusing on market expansion and channel upgrades, with Yanjing U8 achieving nationwide distribution and sales growth [2]. Profitability and Cost Management - The report highlights that the company has maintained a net profit growth rate exceeding 50% for three consecutive years, driven by operational reforms and cost reductions [2]. - The anticipated profit for 2024-2026 has been adjusted upwards, with net profit forecasts of 1.056 billion yuan, 1.406 billion yuan, and 1.656 billion yuan respectively [3]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) estimates of 0.37 yuan, 0.50 yuan, and 0.59 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 35x, 26x, and 22x [3].