Yanjing Brewery(000729) 华鑫证券·2025-04-11 06:21Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company achieved a successful year-end for 2024, with significant profit release and performance in Q1 2025 continuing to be strong [1][3]. - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing structural upgrades and cost control measures, which will enhance profitability [4]. Summary by Sections Annual Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 14.667 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.20%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.056 billion yuan, reflecting a substantial year-on-year growth of 63.74% [1]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw total revenue of 1.821 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.32%, and a reduction in losses compared to the previous year [1]. Product Pricing and Structure - The average price per ton of beer increased by 1.60% in 2024, with total beer sales volume reaching 4.0044 million kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of 1.57% [2]. - The sales volume of the premium product, Yanjing U8, grew significantly by 31.40%, accounting for 17.38% of total beer sales [2]. Q1 2025 Performance - For Q1 2025, the company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders in the range of 160 to 172 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 55.96% to 67.66% [3]. - The company continues to implement nine major reforms, with Yanjing U8 maintaining over 30% growth, contributing to overall structural upgrades [3]. Profit Forecast - The company is projected to maintain high growth rates in profitability, with EPS estimates for 2024-2026 adjusted to 0.37, 0.50, and 0.61 yuan respectively [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 35, 26, and 22 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 [4].