YTO(600233) 天风证券·2025-04-14 03:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The report highlights the potential for increased express delivery volume and pricing due to the transition of export products to domestic sales, supported by various e-commerce platforms and government initiatives [1][3]. - The express delivery industry is expected to see a rebound in volume and pricing by 2025, with significant growth in domestic online retail sales [3][4]. - The forecast for the company's net profit has been adjusted slightly downward for 2024 and 2025, but the overall outlook remains positive with a projected net profit of 54 billion yuan by 2026 [4][6]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 53.54 billion yuan in 2022 to 84.82 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.37% [5][22]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 3.92 billion yuan in 2022 to 5.38 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 12.11% [5][23]. - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 11.33 in 2022 to 8.26 in 2026, indicating potential undervaluation [5][24]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 1.66 in 2022 to 1.15 in 2026, suggesting a favorable valuation trend [5][24]. Market Context - The report notes that the express delivery industry has experienced a significant increase in revenue growth rates since late 2018, driven by domestic consumption expansion [2][3]. - The report anticipates that the domestic express delivery volume will continue to grow, with a year-on-year increase of 22% expected in early 2025 [3][4].