KWEICHOW MOUTAI(600519) 中邮证券·2025-04-14 04:51Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and maintained [1] Core Views - The company's revenue and profit for Q4 2024 met expectations, with total revenue of 174.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.66% [4] - The company aims for a revenue growth target of approximately 9% for 2025, with a total dividend payout of 64.67 billion yuan for 2024, representing a 75% payout ratio [7][8] Company Overview - The latest closing price is 1,568.98 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 197.09 billion yuan [3] - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 19.0% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.86 [3] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 1,741.44 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 862.28 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.38% [4] - The revenue from Moutai liquor and series liquor for 2024 was 1,459.28 billion yuan and 246.84 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.28% and 19.65% [4] Sales Channels - In 2024, direct sales revenue was 748.43 billion yuan, up 11.32% year-on-year, while distribution channel revenue was 957.69 billion yuan, up 19.73% year-on-year [5] - The proportion of direct sales decreased by 1.80 percentage points to 43.87% in 2024 [5] Profitability and Cash Flow - The company's gross margin and net profit margin for 2024 were 92.08% and 49.52%, respectively [6] - Cash flow from sales increased by 11.57% year-on-year to 1,826.45 billion yuan [6] Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 1,900.38 billion yuan, 2,090.91 billion yuan, and 2,307.04 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 941.51 billion yuan, 1,039.63 billion yuan, and 1,150.80 billion yuan [8][10]