公 司 报 告 食品饮料 2025年04月30日 贵州茅台(600519.SH) 业绩稳健增长，经营韧性十足 推荐 ( 维持) 相关研究报告 【平安证券】贵州茅台（600519.SH）*年报点评*24 年业绩略超预告，25年目标稳中求进*推荐20250403 证券分析师 张晋溢 投资咨询资格编号 事项： 贵州茅台发布1季报，1Q25公司实现营业总收入514亿元，同比+10.7%，归母 净利268亿元，同比+11.6%。 股价:1544元 行情走势图 司 季 平安观点： 证 券 研 究 报 告 S1060521030001 ZHANGJINYI112@pingan.com.cn 王萌 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522030001 WANGMENG917@pingan.com.cn 王星云 投资咨询资格编号 S1060523100001 wangxingyun937@pingan.com.cn | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 147,694 | 170, ...

25Q1 收入同比双位数增长，品牌韧性彰显。25Q1 公司收入端同比增长 10.7%、 略超此前市场预期，整体需求平淡下仍实现双位数增长，再度彰显公司品牌韧性。 1）分产品看，25Q1 茅台酒/系列酒实现营收分别为 435.57/70.22 亿元，同比增 加 9.7%/18.3%，茅台酒收入保持稳健增长，飞天茅台价格底线相对明确，系列 酒收入增长环比提速（24Q3/24Q4 系列酒收入同比增长 13.14%/5.07%）。2） 分渠道看，25Q1 直销/批发代理渠道收入分别为 232.20/273.60 亿元，同比增加 20.19%/3.93%，直销渠道收入占比约 46%、同比 24Q1 有所提升，其中"i 茅 台"数字平台实现酒类不含税收入 58.70 亿元、同比增长约 10%。3）截至 25Q1 末国内/国外经销商数量分别为 2174/109 家，净增 31/5 家，国内经销商数量增 加均为系列酒经销商。 2025 年 4 月 30 日 公司研究 Q1 开局亮眼，业绩略超预期 ——贵州茅台（600519.SH）2025 年一季报点评 要点 事件：贵州茅台发布 2025 年一季报，公司 25Q1 实现总营收 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月30日 贵州茅台（600519.SH） 优于大市 2025Q1 收入同比增长 10.7%，销售收现表现较好 2025Q1 收入增长双位数，需求收缩背景下彰显龙头韧性。2025Q1 公司实现营 业总收入 514.43 亿元/同比+10.7%，归母净利润 268.47 亿元/同比+11.6%。 结合 2024Q4+2025Q1，收入同比+11.7%，净利润同比+13.8%，利润端增速高 于收入端主因税金率下降较多。 | 盈利预测和财务指标 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 150,560 | 174,144 | 190,754 | 207,065 | 223,663 | | (+/-%) | 18.0% | 15.7% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 8.0% | | 净利润(百万元) | 74734 | 86228 | 94268 | 102766 | 111681 | | (+/-%) | 19.2% | 15.4% | 9.3 ...

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 贵州茅台（600519）2025 年一季报点评 强推（维持） 亮眼开局，压舱之石 目标价：2600 元 当前价：1544.00 元 事项： 公司发布 25 年一季报，25Q1 实现总营收 514.4 亿元，同增 10.7%，归母净利 润 268.5 亿元，同增 11.6%。销售回款 561.4 亿元，同增 21.4%，经营性现金流 净额 88.1 亿元，同减 4.1%，Q1 末合同负债 87.9 亿元，环比下降 8.0 亿元。 评论： 风险提示：需求持续疲软致普茅批价承压、非标放量过快致量价失衡。 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 174,144 | 190,775 | 207,395 | 223,719 | | 同比增速(%) | 15.7% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 7.9% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 86,228 | 94,685 | 103,604 | 112,615 ...

伊利股份 一、生意质量：草原雄狮也有打盹时 2024年营收1158亿同比降8%，扣非净利润60.11亿同比跌40%。这数据让老巴想起他的名言："只有当潮 水退去时，你才知道谁在裸泳"。 近期，越来越多的上市公司的财报密集披露，其中也有不少是研究院所跟踪覆盖过的。一些着重关注的 公司，我们已提前在价投圈内以文字形式做过点评，圈友们看过的话应该早已心里有底。 今天的文章，证星研究院部分结合"问小巴"工具，一起同大家再来看一看，伊利股份（600887）、美的 集团（000333）、贵州茅台（600519）。 乳业赛道看似刚需，但伊利这份成绩单显示： 以下为主要内容(内容结合问小巴)： 一是乳制品行业增速已降至个位数，二是销售费用率若维持19%，利润增速可能被"营销黑洞"吞噬。 亮点在于合同负债120.7亿(预收款)，同比增38%，经销商提前打款热情不减，渠道掌控力仍是王牌。但 存货107亿同比降14%，去库存效果显著，这草原雄狮至少没被库存压垮。 四、风险预警：别被草原风光迷了眼 三、估值拷问：22.5倍PE值不值？ 成本端压力山大：销售费用高达219.8亿(占营收19%)，比研发费用(8.7亿)多25倍，这钱砸得 ...

证券研究报告 贵州茅台 (600519 CH) 开局顺利，势能向上 | 华泰研究 | | 季报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 4 月 | 30 日│中国内地 | 饮料 | 公司发布 25 年一季度业绩，25Q1 公司实现总营收/归母净利 514.4/268.5 亿（同比+10.7%/+11.6%），实现稳健增长。公司业绩整体高于我们此前预 期（25Q1 总营收/归母净利同比+10%/+8%）。产品端，25Q1 茅台酒/系列 酒收入同比+9.7%/+18.3%，一季度顺利实现开门红，各重点项目建设稳步 推进，为全年高质量发展打下基础；渠道端，25Q1 直销/批发收入同比 +20.2%/+3.9%，直销占比同比+3.6pct 至 45.9%。展望 25 年，我们认为领 先的品质和品牌优势、日趋精细化的量价策略和公司治理，海外市场的持续 开拓将助力公司经营势能持续向上，维持"买入"。 资料来源：公司公告、华泰研究预测 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 目标价(人民币): | 1,945.58 | | 研究员 | 龚源月 | | SAC No. ...

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai demonstrates strong performance in Q1 2025, with revenue of 51.443 billion yuan and net profit of 26.847 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.67% and 11.56% respectively, solidifying its market position and instilling confidence in the industry [1] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Guizhou Moutai achieved total revenue of 51.443 billion yuan, a 10.67% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 26.847 billion yuan, up 11.56% [1] - For the full year 2024, the company reported total revenue of 174.144 billion yuan, a 15.66% increase, with total profit of 119.639 billion yuan, up 15.41%, and net profit of 86.228 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.38% growth [1] Market Strategy - Guizhou Moutai employs a dual-channel strategy of "traditional channel deepening + direct sales channel enhancement," balancing agency and direct sales to create a healthier channel ecosystem, which has led to reduced inventory turnover days and stable high prepayments [1] - The company has seen a significant increase in sales of its series of products, with Q1 sales reaching 7.022 billion yuan, marking an 18.3% year-on-year growth, driven by strong demand for its flagship product, Feitian Moutai [2] Product Development - Moutai's product lineup includes a pyramid structure, with high-end products like Moutai 1935 at the top, mid-range products like the upgraded Prince Wine (Sauce Aroma Classic) 2.0, and entry-level products like the 100ml "Little Moutai," catering to a wide price range and avoiding competition with the main brand [2] - The company has successfully increased its market share in celebratory occasions, achieving a 28% market share in banquet wines in regions like Guangdong and Fujian, with a bottle opening rate of 67% [3] International Expansion - In Q1, Guizhou Moutai's overseas revenue reached 1.119 billion yuan, a 37.53% increase, showcasing significant progress in international market expansion [3] - The company has implemented a "One Belt, One Road" strategy, distributing products to 64 countries and regions across five continents, enhancing its global influence [3] Industry Position - Guizhou Moutai is viewed as a pillar of the Chinese liquor industry, with its pricing stability benefiting other high-end liquor brands, ensuring their survival and competitiveness [4] - The company is recognized for its strong risk resistance and long-term value, with public funds heavily invested, reflecting market confidence in its brand and performance [7] Management and Future Outlook - The management has initiated a series of in-depth market research activities to adapt to changing consumer behaviors, focusing on three transformations: customer, scenario, and service [5] - The company aims to enhance consumer engagement and address supply-demand mismatches, with a focus on building a collaborative channel ecosystem [6] - Analysts project a revenue growth target of 9% for 2025, supported by product innovations and strategic channel adjustments [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong expectation for price appreciation in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 51.44 billion yuan for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 26.85 billion yuan, up 11.6% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [2]. - Revenue from Moutai liquor and series liquor for Q1 2025 reached 43.56 billion yuan and 7.02 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 9.7% and 18.3% [3]. - The company is actively optimizing its distributor assessment and building a standardized evaluation system, aiming to stabilize market price expectations and channel order [4]. - The expected revenue growth rates for 2025-2027 are 9.3%, 8.2%, and 8.0%, with net profit growth rates of 9.8%, 8.6%, and 8.1% respectively [5]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 51.44 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%, and a net profit of 26.85 billion yuan, up 11.6% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations [2]. Operational Analysis - Revenue breakdown for Q1 2025 shows Moutai liquor and series liquor generated 43.56 billion yuan and 7.02 billion yuan, with growth rates of 9.7% and 18.3% respectively. Direct sales and wholesale agency revenues were 23.22 billion yuan and 27.36 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year increases of 20.2% and 3.9% [3]. - The company’s net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 52.2%, with a slight decrease in gross margin and an increase in sales expense ratio [3]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The company forecasts revenue growth rates of 9.3% for 2025, 8.2% for 2026, and 8.0% for 2027, with net profit growth rates of 9.8%, 8.6%, and 8.1% respectively, leading to net profits of 94.69 billion yuan in 2025 [5]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 20.5 for 2025, 18.9 for 2026, and 17.5 for 2027, supporting the "Buy" rating [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong expectation of price appreciation in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 51.44 billion yuan for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 26.85 billion yuan, up 11.6% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [2]. - The revenue breakdown shows that Moutai liquor and series liquor achieved revenues of 43.56 billion yuan and 7.02 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth of 9.7% and 18.3% [3]. - The company is actively optimizing its dealer assessment and building a standardized assessment system, aiming to stabilize market price expectations and channel order [4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenue growth rates of 9.3%, 8.2%, and 8.0% for the years 2025 to 2027, with net profit growth rates of 9.8%, 8.6%, and 8.1% respectively [5]. - The estimated net profit for 2025 is 94.686 billion yuan, with earnings per share (EPS) expected to be 75.38 yuan [10]. Financial Metrics - The report indicates a gross profit margin of 52.2% for Q1 2025, with a slight decrease in gross margin by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company’s dividend payout ratio is projected at 75%, corresponding to a dividend yield of 3.7% [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 51.44 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.7% [7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2025 was 26.85 billion yuan, up 11.6% year-on-year [7] - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 9% in 2025, driven by both Moutai liquor and series liquor [7] - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 is 93.2 billion, 100.9 billion, and 110.3 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8%, 8%, and 9% [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2023A to 2027E are 150.56 billion, 174.14 billion, 190.05 billion, 206.83 billion, and 227 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 18.04%, 15.66%, 9.14%, 8.83%, and 9.75% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period is projected to be 74.73 billion, 86.23 billion, 93.20 billion, 100.94 billion, and 110.28 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.16%, 15.38%, 8.09%, 8.30%, and 9.25% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2025E is projected at 74.19 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 20.81 [1] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 1,544.00 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 1,939.57 billion yuan [5] - The stock has a price-to-book ratio of 7.51 and a net asset value per share of 205.67 yuan [6]