贵州茅台：Q1业绩超预期，龙头持续变革转型-20250430

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong expectation of price appreciation in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 51.44 billion yuan for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 26.85 billion yuan, up 11.6% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [2]. - The revenue breakdown shows that Moutai liquor and series liquor achieved revenues of 43.56 billion yuan and 7.02 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth of 9.7% and 18.3% [3]. - The company is actively optimizing its dealer assessment and building a standardized assessment system, aiming to stabilize market price expectations and channel order [4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenue growth rates of 9.3%, 8.2%, and 8.0% for the years 2025 to 2027, with net profit growth rates of 9.8%, 8.6%, and 8.1% respectively [5]. - The estimated net profit for 2025 is 94.686 billion yuan, with earnings per share (EPS) expected to be 75.38 yuan [10]. Financial Metrics - The report indicates a gross profit margin of 52.2% for Q1 2025, with a slight decrease in gross margin by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company’s dividend payout ratio is projected at 75%, corresponding to a dividend yield of 3.7% [4].