KWEICHOW MOUTAI(600519) 国金证券·2025-04-30 05:58Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong expectation for price appreciation in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 51.44 billion yuan for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 26.85 billion yuan, up 11.6% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [2]. - Revenue from Moutai liquor and series liquor for Q1 2025 reached 43.56 billion yuan and 7.02 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 9.7% and 18.3% [3]. - The company is actively optimizing its distributor assessment and building a standardized evaluation system, aiming to stabilize market price expectations and channel order [4]. - The expected revenue growth rates for 2025-2027 are 9.3%, 8.2%, and 8.0%, with net profit growth rates of 9.8%, 8.6%, and 8.1% respectively [5]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 51.44 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%, and a net profit of 26.85 billion yuan, up 11.6% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations [2]. Operational Analysis - Revenue breakdown for Q1 2025 shows Moutai liquor and series liquor generated 43.56 billion yuan and 7.02 billion yuan, with growth rates of 9.7% and 18.3% respectively. Direct sales and wholesale agency revenues were 23.22 billion yuan and 27.36 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year increases of 20.2% and 3.9% [3]. - The company’s net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 52.2%, with a slight decrease in gross margin and an increase in sales expense ratio [3]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The company forecasts revenue growth rates of 9.3% for 2025, 8.2% for 2026, and 8.0% for 2027, with net profit growth rates of 9.8%, 8.6%, and 8.1% respectively, leading to net profits of 94.69 billion yuan in 2025 [5]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 20.5 for 2025, 18.9 for 2026, and 17.5 for 2027, supporting the "Buy" rating [5].