晨光股份（603899）：深度报告：扩圈出海变革

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][4]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on enhancing product value through a strong IP and functional strategy, aiming to meet diverse consumer needs and expand its market presence internationally [4][15]. - The overseas market is showing initial signs of contribution, with a projected revenue of 1.039 billion yuan in 2024, representing a 22% year-on-year growth [4][15]. - The company plans to strengthen its IP strategy in 2025, targeting high-value stationery products that appeal to younger consumers [4][15]. Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023A: 23.351 billion yuan - 2024A: 24.228 billion yuan - 2025E: 27.566 billion yuan - 2026E: 31.143 billion yuan - 2027E: 35.125 billion yuan - Net profit estimates are: - 2023A: 1.527 billion yuan - 2024A: 1.396 billion yuan - 2025E: 1.607 billion yuan - 2026E: 1.831 billion yuan - 2027E: 2.075 billion yuan - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be: - 2023A: 1.65 yuan - 2024A: 1.51 yuan - 2025E: 1.74 yuan - 2026E: 1.98 yuan - 2027E: 2.25 yuan - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is estimated at 18 times, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to the past decade [3][4]. Product Strategy and Market Expansion - The company emphasizes product strength through a combination of strong IP and functionality, which has been a key driver for product upgrades [8][14]. - The independent brand "Qi Zhi Hao Wan" is rapidly developing, focusing on popular two-dimensional IPs and expanding its product offerings [20][22]. - The company is actively pursuing international expansion, particularly in Southeast Asia and Africa, where it has established a significant market presence [4][15]. Investment Recommendations - The company plans to enhance shareholder returns through dividends and share buybacks, with a combined ratio of 73% in 2024 [4][15]. - The report anticipates steady growth in net profit for the years 2025 to 2027, with expected increases of 15%, 14%, and 13% respectively [4][15].