海外周度观察：在地缘政治风险及盈利下修压力下修压力下修-20250416

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index rose by 48 points or 0.2% to close at 21,466 points, marking the sixth consecutive trading day of gains[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.7% to 4,981 points, indicating mixed performance in the tech sector[1] - Market turnover decreased to HKD 185.1 billion, the lowest since February 6, 2023, with net inflow from the Stock Connect at approximately HKD 7.2 billion[1] Economic Indicators - The New York Fed reported a 1-year inflation expectation of 3.58%, the highest since October 2023, while the Michigan survey indicated a 1-year inflation expectation of 6.7%, the highest since November 1981[2] - Consumer expectations regarding unemployment have worsened, reaching the highest level since April 2020[2] Sector Performance - Essential consumer sectors such as banking, telecommunications, utilities, and food & beverage showed strong performance, with notable gains in stocks like China Resources Power (up 3.1%-3.8%) and Tingyi (up 1.2%) reaching a three-year high[1] - The healthcare sector saw a decline of 1.10%, but companies like Rongchang Bio reported significant clinical trial results, indicating potential for future growth[3] Real Estate Market - New home sales in 30 major cities fell to 1.46 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 18.9%, contrasting with a previous week’s increase of 30.6%[5] - The inventory-to-sales ratio for major cities rose to 79.5, up from 72.6 a year ago, indicating a potential oversupply in the market[7] Land Transactions - Land transaction volume in 100 major cities dropped to 11.36 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 28.5% and a month-on-month decline of 56.8%[8] Company Insights - China Overseas Development reported a stable Q1 2025 with operating profit rising by 0.2% to HKD 430 million, although the growth rate was lower than the previous quarter[13] - The company secured new contracts worth HKD 3.72 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.6%[14] Future Outlook - The report suggests that the market may expect more supportive measures from the central government for the real estate sector, given the current economic challenges and global uncertainties[11]