中科三环：稀土价格企稳回升，公司资产减值压力缓解-20250416

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12-15 million yuan in Q1 2025, a significant improvement from a loss of 98.74 million yuan in the same period last year [1] - The stabilization of rare earth prices has alleviated the pressure of asset impairment, with the average prices of key raw materials showing slight increases or stability [1] - The company plans to slow down its capacity expansion in response to market demand and competition, with a total sintered neodymium-iron-boron capacity of 25,000 tons expected by the end of 2024 [2] - Recent export controls on rare earth elements may exacerbate supply-demand imbalances, impacting both domestic and international pricing dynamics [3] Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 8,358 million yuan in 2023, with a projected decline to 6,751 million yuan in 2024, followed by a recovery to 7,794 million yuan in 2025 [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 275 million yuan in 2023, dropping to 12 million yuan in 2024, and recovering to 192 million yuan in 2025 [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.23 yuan in 2023, decreasing to 0.01 yuan in 2024, and then increasing to 0.16 yuan in 2025 [4] Market Dynamics - The company’s raw material inventory is maintained at approximately two months' worth of usage, which may allow for potential inventory gains as rare earth prices rise [1] - The company’s operational capacity is currently around 65%, with a total production of approximately 10,637 tons of magnetic materials in 2024 [2] - The recent export controls are expected to significantly impact export volumes in the short term, with a gradual recovery anticipated as companies adapt to new processes [3]