GDPD(600795) 西南证券·2025-04-17 07:05Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guodian Power (600795) with a target price of 6.12 CNY over the next six months [1]. Core Views - The profitability of thermal power is improving, while the company is awaiting the commissioning of hydropower projects [1]. - The report highlights a decrease in revenue for 2024, but a significant increase in net profit, indicating a strong recovery in profitability [7]. - The company is expected to see growth in its various segments, particularly in thermal and hydropower, with a focus on increasing installed capacity in renewable energy [11]. Financial Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2024A revenue is projected at 179.18 billion CNY, with a decrease of 1.0% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 9.83 billion CNY, an increase of 75.3% year-on-year [7]. - For 2025E, revenue is expected to rise to 192.20 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 7.26%, while net profit is forecasted to decrease to 7.57 billion CNY, a decline of 23.01% [2][9]. - Segment Performance: - Thermal power is projected to generate a net profit of 100.5 billion CNY in 2024, with a net profit margin of 2.9 cents per kWh, showing a year-on-year increase [7]. - The hydropower segment is expected to face challenges due to impairment losses, with a projected net profit of 19.9 billion CNY, down 33.3% year-on-year [7]. - The wind and solar segments are anticipated to grow significantly, with net profits of 19.2 billion CNY and 13.8 billion CNY, respectively, despite facing price pressures [7]. - Valuation Metrics: - The report assigns a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.2 for thermal power, 20.0 for hydropower, and 16.0 for wind and solar, leading to a total market value estimate of 1,091 billion CNY for the company [11][10]. Key Financial Ratios - The report provides key financial ratios, including: - Earnings per Share (EPS) for 2024A is projected at 0.55 CNY, decreasing to 0.42 CNY in 2025E [2]. - Return on Equity (ROE) is expected to decline from 12.67% in 2024A to 11.29% in 2025E [2]. - Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is forecasted to be 8.3 for 2024A, increasing to 10.8 for 2025E [2].