GDPD(600795) 西南证券·2025-04-17 08:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guodian Power (600795) with a target price of 6.12 CNY over the next six months, compared to the current price of 4.65 CNY [1]. Core Views - The profitability of thermal power is improving, while the company is awaiting the commissioning of hydropower projects [1]. - The report highlights a significant increase in net profit for the parent company, with a year-on-year growth of 75.3% [7]. - The company is expected to see a gradual increase in revenue and net profit over the next few years, driven by its thermal, hydropower, and renewable energy segments [9][11]. Financial Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2024A: Revenue of 179,182 million CNY, a decrease of 1.0% year-on-year - 2025E: Revenue of 192,197 million CNY, an increase of 7.3% - 2026E: Revenue of 198,873 million CNY, an increase of 3.5% - 2027E: Revenue of 206,976 million CNY, an increase of 4.1% [9][14] - Net Profit: - 2024A: Net profit of 9,831 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 75.3% - 2025E: Net profit of 7,569 million CNY, a decrease of 23.0% - 2026E: Net profit of 8,772 million CNY, an increase of 15.9% - 2027E: Net profit of 9,542 million CNY, an increase of 8.8% [9][14] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2024A: 0.55 CNY - 2025E: 0.42 CNY - 2026E: 0.49 CNY - 2027E: 0.54 CNY [9][14] - Return on Equity (ROE): - 2024A: 12.67% - 2025E: 11.29% - 2026E: 11.30% - 2027E: 11.41% [9][14] Segment Analysis - Thermal Power: - Expected revenue growth of 7.4% in 2025, with a gross margin of 13.9% [9]. - Hydropower: - Expected revenue growth of 6.2% annually, with a gross margin of 48.6% in 2025 [9]. - Wind and Solar Power: - Expected revenue growth of 19.9% in 2025, with a gross margin of 35.6% [9]. Valuation - The report estimates the total market value of Guodian Power at 1,091 billion CNY, based on a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.2 for thermal power, 20.0 for hydropower, and 16.0 for wind and solar power [11].