镍价震荡上行，现货市场成交清淡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - For both nickel and stainless steel, the Indonesian resource tax new regulations may be implemented on the 26th of this month, leading to increased costs. There are expectations of certain favorable policies in the later period. It is expected that in the near - term, prices will oscillate upwards to find resistance levels and then conduct range - bound oscillations. In the medium - to - long - term, the idea of selling hedges on rallies is maintained [4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On April 17, 2025, the main contract 2505 of Shanghai nickel opened at 125,000 yuan/ton and closed at 126,030 yuan/ton, a 0.99% change from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 146,631 lots, and the open interest was 52,838 lots [2] - The main contract of Shanghai nickel opened higher with a gap in the night session, oscillated and rose, and then oscillated horizontally around 126,000. After the opening of the day session, it continued to rush up quickly, and then oscillated horizontally after being blocked. It closed with a medium阳线. The trading volume decreased compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest changed little [3] - In the first quarter, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 10.3 trillion yuan, a 1.3% increase. Exports were 6.13 trillion yuan, a 6.9% increase; imports were 4.17 trillion yuan, a 6% decrease. At the end of the month, the broad - money (M2) balance was 326.06 trillion yuan, a 7.0% year - on - year increase, the same as last month. The narrow - money (M1) balance was 113.49 trillion yuan, a 1.6% year - on - year increase, 1.5 percentage points higher than at the end of last month. At the end of March 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 422.96 trillion yuan, an 8.4% year - on - year increase, 0.2 percentage points higher than at the end of last month [3] - In the spot market, the morning quotation of Jinchuan nickel was raised by about 1,175 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the quotations of mainstream brands in the market were correspondingly raised. The nickel price was running strongly, and the overall spot trading of refined nickel was average. The spot premiums and discounts of most brands remained stable. Among them, the premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 100 yuan/ton to 2,750 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by - 75 yuan/ton to 150 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 25,229 (- 222.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 204,528 (1,938) tons [3] Strategy - It is expected to oscillate upwards to find resistance levels in the near - term and then conduct range - bound oscillations. In the medium - to - long - term, maintain the idea of selling hedges on rallies. For single - side trading, focus on range operations; for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading, there are no specific strategies [4] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On April 17, 2025, the main contract 2505 of stainless steel opened at 12,850 yuan/ton and closed at 12,845 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 136,326 lots, and the open interest was 133,003 lots [4] - The main contract of stainless steel oscillated and rebounded after the opening of the night session, continued to oscillate upwards after the opening of the day session, and then fell back after being blocked near the previous day's high. It closed with a cross line. The trading volume decreased compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest changed little [4] - The President of Indonesia officially signed the new nickel product royalty policy on April 11, which will be officially implemented on April 26. According to the metal trade benchmark price of nickel ore, the cost of nickel ore products has increased by 1.1 US dollars/wet ton (35% water content). Assuming that the nickel ore price increases by about 1.1 - 1.5 US dollars/wet ton, the cost of nickel iron and ferronickel ice will increase by about 10 - 15 yuan/nickel. A steel mill in East China transacted nearly 10,000 tons of nickel iron at 980 yuan/nickel (including tax at the bottom of the hold) today [4] - In the spot market, the stainless steel futures oscillated and fell back. The trading during the day was mainly for low - price resources, the inquiry atmosphere was calm, and the trading maintained the rigid demand. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market was 13,200 yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 13,225 yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 380 to 580 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron yesterday changed by - 4.50 yuan/nickel point to 986.0 yuan/nickel point [5] Strategy - It is expected to oscillate upwards to find resistance levels in the near - term and then conduct range - bound oscillations. In the medium - to - long - term, maintain the idea of selling hedges on rallies. For single - side trading, take a neutral stance; for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading, there are no specific strategies [5]