DUN'AN ENVIRONMENTAL(002011) 国投证券·2025-04-18 06:02Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 16.47 CNY for the next six months [4][7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 12.68 billion CNY for 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 11.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.04 billion CNY, up 41.6% year-over-year [1][3]. - The "old-for-new" subsidy policy has effectively boosted domestic air conditioning and new energy vehicle sales, leading to a recovery in revenue growth for the company's automotive thermal management and refrigeration parts businesses in Q4 [1][2]. - The company is expected to benefit from the expansion of the "old-for-new" policy in 2025, which will likely stimulate ongoing demand for air conditioning updates and related components [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4, the company achieved a revenue of 3.34 billion CNY, a year-over-year increase of 13.8%, and a net profit of 400 million CNY, reflecting a significant year-over-year growth of 100.2% [1][3]. - The automotive thermal management revenue for the second half of 2024 reached 550 million CNY, marking a year-over-year increase of 62.9% [2]. - The gross profit margin for Q4 remained stable at 15.9%, while management and R&D expense ratios increased due to higher stock payment costs and increased R&D investment [2][3]. - The net profit margin for Q4 improved significantly to 11.9%, up 5.1 percentage points year-over-year, primarily due to the reversal of previously recognized credit impairment losses [3]. Future Earnings Projections - The company is projected to have earnings per share (EPS) of 1.10 CNY, 1.25 CNY, and 1.49 CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4][8]. - The expected revenue growth rates for the upcoming years are 15.5% for 2025, 11.4% for 2026, and 12.9% for 2027 [8][12]. Market Position - The company is recognized as a leading player in the refrigeration components industry and is actively expanding its business in refrigeration equipment and new energy vehicle thermal management [3][4]. - The total market capitalization of the company is approximately 12.18 billion CNY, with a circulating market capitalization of about 10.47 billion CNY [4].