BABA(09988) 东方证券·2025-04-19 00:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group [3][10]. Core Views - Alibaba Cloud's ecosystem is continuously improving, with accelerated deployment of AI agents. Revenue forecasts for FY2025-2027 are projected at 10027, 10542, and 11445 million yuan, respectively, with adjusted net profits of 1571, 1638, and 1809 million yuan [2][10]. - The company's market capitalization is estimated at 27957 million yuan, corresponding to a per-share value of 157.65 HKD [8][21]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY2025, total revenue is expected to reach 1002754 million yuan, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 6.54%. The adjusted net profit is projected at 132049 million yuan, with a significant increase of 65.60% compared to the previous year [9][11]. - The report highlights a steady increase in operating profit, with a forecast of 133751 million yuan for FY2025, representing an 18.00% growth [9][11]. Business Segment Analysis - Taobao Group: Revenue is expected to be 446799 million yuan in FY2025, with a year-over-year growth of 2.74% [11][21]. - Cloud Intelligence Group: Anticipated to experience a high growth cycle due to increased domestic AI computing demand, with a projected market value of 8500 million yuan [13][21]. - International Digital Commerce Group: Currently in an expansion phase, projected to have a market value of 1691 million yuan based on a PS valuation method [15][21]. - Cainiao Group: Expected to achieve a market value of 121 billion yuan, reflecting a stable profitability trend [17][21]. - Local Life Group: Valued at 1510 million yuan, utilizing a PS valuation method due to its current lack of profitability [19][21]. - Entertainment Group: Estimated market value of 449 million yuan, based on a PS valuation of its subsidiaries [20][21].