CFMOTO(603129) 东吴证券·2025-04-19 13:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company's Q1 performance exceeded expectations, with new products expected to continue gaining traction. The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 remain unchanged at 1.68 billion and 1.95 billion respectively, with a forecast of 2.395 billion for 2027. The corresponding P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are 13.7, 11.8, and 9.6 times. The motorcycle business successfully captures the domestic consumption upgrade trend due to strong product and brand power, while the all-terrain vehicle segment is steadily increasing its global market share through a three-pronged approach of R&D, products, and channels. The "Buy" rating is upheld [3] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 12.11 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 6.44%. For 2024, revenue is expected to reach 15.038 billion, reflecting a 24.18% increase. The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted at 1.008 billion for 2023, with a significant year-on-year growth of 43.65%. The EPS for 2024 is estimated at 9.65 yuan per share, with a P/E ratio of 15.63 times [1][3] Revenue Breakdown - In H2 2024, the company sold 87,700 all-terrain vehicles, marking a year-on-year increase of 30.5%. The average revenue per all-terrain vehicle is 41,900 yuan, showing a slight decline. In Q1 2025, the company sold 44,000 four-wheeled vehicles. For motorcycles, H2 2024 sales reached 132,600 units, with exports accounting for 57,500 units, a year-on-year increase of 22.6% [8][9] Profitability Metrics - The company's gross margin for 2024 is projected at 30.06%, a decrease of 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in revenue from the U.S. and increased competition in the domestic motorcycle market. The gross margin for Q1 2025 is estimated at 29.73%, down 1.79 percentage points year-on-year [8][9] Expense Ratios - The company's selling, general, and administrative expense ratios for 2024 are projected at 6.8%, 4.7%, and 6.8% respectively, showing slight improvements compared to the previous year. For Q1 2025, these ratios are expected to be 5.29%, 4.78%, and 5.83% [8][9]