wanhua(600309) 东方证券·2025-04-19 14:46Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 74.29 CNY [1][6] Core Views - The company's performance has been impacted by market conditions and asset impairment, with a reported revenue of 182 billion CNY for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13 billion CNY, down 22.5% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, revenue was 430.68 billion CNY, a decline of 6.7% year-on-year, with a net profit of 30.8 billion CNY, down 25.9% year-on-year. The decline is primarily due to significant price drops in key products such as pure MDI, TDI, and polyether, while raw material prices like pure benzene and LPG fell less sharply, leading to an overall decrease in gross margin [5][10] Financial Performance Summary - The company reported the following financial metrics: - 2023 Revenue: 175.36 billion CNY, with a growth of 5.9% - 2024 Revenue: 182.07 billion CNY, with a growth of 3.8% - 2025 Estimated Revenue: 210.05 billion CNY, with a growth of 15.4% - 2024 Net Profit: 13.03 billion CNY, down 22.5% - 2025 Estimated Net Profit: 13.73 billion CNY, with a growth of 5.3% - 2025 Estimated EPS: 4.37 CNY [8][6] Market Conditions and Strategic Insights - The company is experiencing a decline in capital expenditure intensity, with fixed assets increasing by 20 billion CNY in 2024 and a further increase of 18.6 billion CNY in Q1 2025, primarily from the Fujian base and Penglai project. The second phase of the ethylene project is expected to impact profits mainly in Q2 [10] - The company faces pressure from trade disputes, particularly from changes in US tariffs affecting global economic uncertainty and raw material prices. Despite having long-term strategic partners in the Middle East, short-term cost pressures are anticipated [10]