HIKVISION(002415) 申万宏源证券·2025-04-20 10:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hikvision (002415) [1] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 92.496 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.53%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 15.10% to 11.977 billion yuan [6] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 18.532 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.01%, and a net profit of 2.039 billion yuan, up 6.41% year-on-year [6] - The growth in Q1 2025 was slightly above expectations, driven by strong performance in overseas and innovative businesses [6] - The revenue from innovative businesses reached 22.5 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 21.2%, while overseas revenue was 26 billion yuan, up 8.39% [6] - Traditional domestic security business is under short-term pressure, with declines in various segments, but new demand points are emerging from EBG+AI projects [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The total revenue forecast for 2025 is adjusted to 97.923 billion yuan, with a net profit forecast of 13.615 billion yuan [5][9] - The projected revenue for 2026 and 2027 is 107.949 billion yuan and 120.215 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 15.146 billion yuan and 16.192 billion yuan [5][9] - The gross margin for 2024 was 43.83%, showing resilience despite a slight decline [6] - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in performance due to macroeconomic support policies and inventory adjustments [6]