上市银行2025年1季报：传统利差业务支撑营收，拨备支撑业绩

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector [2] Core Insights - The banking sector is expected to see a slight decline in revenue of approximately -1.7% in Q1 2025, with net profit projected to increase by +0.2%. The ability to release provisions will support profitability amidst stable asset quality [3][4] - Total asset growth is expected to rebound slightly, with credit growth remaining stable and regional disparities continuing [3][9] - The net interest margin (NIM) is anticipated to decline slightly by 4-5 basis points due to the impact of LPR adjustments [3][11] - Non-interest income pressures are easing, although other non-interest income remains under pressure [3][30] Summary by Sections 1. Scale - Total asset growth is expected to rebound, with a projected growth rate of 8.5% for the year, up 0.5 percentage points from 2024. Q1 2025 loan growth is expected to remain stable at 7.2% [9][10] 2. Net Interest Margin - The industry is expected to see a slight decline in NIM by 4-5 basis points in Q1 2025, primarily due to the LPR reduction. The asset side is projected to decline by 8 basis points, while the liability side will provide some support [11][12] 3. Asset Quality - Overall asset quality remains stable, with public sector loans benefiting from time-based policies. Retail loans are diversified and do not pose systemic risks [13][23] 4. Revenue and Profit Estimates - Revenue is projected to decline slightly by 1.7% in Q1 2025, with traditional interest margin business providing support. Non-interest income is under pressure but expected to improve as market conditions stabilize [29][35] - Profitability is expected to improve gradually throughout the year, with Q1 2025 net profit projected to increase by +0.2% [37]