房地产行业统计局数据点评：销售回升，政策延续放松态势

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the next 6-12 months [1][43]. Core Insights - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery with sales data improving, driven by continued policy easing and the government's "stop the decline and stabilize" approach, which has helped restore market confidence [2][11]. - Despite ongoing challenges, such as a decline in investment and new construction, there is an expectation that policy measures will support a gradual recovery in sales and investment in the sector [3][27]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Macro Data Overview - In Q1 2025, the total sales area of commercial housing was 21,869 million square meters, down 3.0% year-on-year, while sales revenue reached 20,798 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.1% year-on-year [8][11]. - Real estate development investment totaled 19,904 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 9.9% [8][11]. 2. Sales Recovery and Policy Impact - Sales area and revenue showed slight improvements compared to previous months, with sales area decline slowing by 2.1 percentage points and revenue decline by 0.5 percentage points [2][11]. - The government's policy measures, including relaxed purchasing qualifications and loan rates, are expected to continue, further stabilizing sales [2][11]. 3. Investment Trends - Real estate investment in Q1 2025 decreased by 9.9% year-on-year, with new construction area down 24.4% [3][27]. - Despite low willingness to acquire land and start new projects, core cities are seeing a rebound in land acquisition, which may stabilize new construction in the future [3][27]. 4. Funding Sources - Funding for real estate development decreased by 3.7% year-on-year, with domestic loans and personal mortgage loans showing signs of recovery [4][34]. - The industry is still facing a contraction in financing channels, but improvements are anticipated due to supportive policies [4][34]. 5. Policy Easing and Price Trends - The report notes that housing prices are experiencing negative growth, but the rate of decline is slowing, indicating potential stabilization in the future [36]. - The overall housing inventory remains high, but the sales-to-inventory ratio is improving, suggesting a gradual recovery in market conditions [36][41]. 6. Long-term Investment Value - Leading companies in the real estate sector are expected to benefit from improved market conditions and increased market share, making them attractive for long-term investment [39][41]. 7. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on stable and high-safety real estate companies in first and second-tier cities, such as Binjiang Group, China Merchants Shekou, and Poly Development, among others [41].