渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.04.21）-20250421

Macroeconomic Environment - The inflation expectations in the US are rising, while consumer confidence has significantly declined, indicating uncertainty in the trade environment that may support short-term economic activity but could weaken future demand [2] - The Federal Reserve faces challenges in achieving its dual mandate due to tariffs, with a focus on inflation stability before adjusting policy [2] - In Europe, inflation in the Eurozone has decreased, approaching the ECB's target, while economic downturn risks are increasing, leading to continued interest rate cuts [2] Domestic Economic Conditions - The domestic economy showed a stable and positive start in Q1, benefiting from export growth and supportive policies for consumption and investment [3] - New social financing and RMB loans exceeded market expectations, indicating strong government support [3] - However, issues such as supply-demand imbalance and low prices require coordinated fiscal and monetary policy efforts [3] High-Frequency Data - Real estate transactions are weak, and agricultural wholesale prices are declining, while steel and cement prices are also down [3] - Commodity prices show mixed trends, with coal and coke prices decreasing, while non-ferrous metal prices fluctuate [3] Fixed Income Market - Financial data indicates accelerated fiscal fund usage and active capital flow, with March export values showing double-digit year-on-year growth [4][5] - The central bank net injected 40.3 billion RMB during the reporting period, maintaining stable domestic funding prices [5] - The issuance of special government bonds is set to increase, with a total issuance of 1 trillion RMB planned, raising concerns about supply pressure in the bond market [5] Market Outlook - The impact of tariffs is expected to shift from a short-term variable to a long-term one, with the upcoming Politburo meeting being a key focus for potential policy changes [6] - The bond market is anticipated to remain volatile, influenced by tariff-related risk aversion and potential growth-stabilizing policies [6]