HIKVISION(002415) 国金证券·2025-04-21 02:57Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with projected earnings multiples of 18.7X, 15.4X, and 13X for the years 2025 to 2027 respectively [3] Core Views - The company is expected to see revenue growth of 6.6%, 9.5%, and 10.8% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with projected revenues of 986.0 billion, 1,079.9 billion, and 1,195.9 billion RMB [3] - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company is 139.9 billion, 169.7 billion, and 201.5 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 16.8%, 21.3%, and 18.7% [3] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company achieved a revenue of 924.96 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.53%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 119.7 billion RMB, a decline of 15.1% [9] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 185.32 billion RMB, up 4.01% year-on-year, and a net profit of 20.39 billion RMB, an increase of 6.41% [9] Business Segmentation - The overseas and innovative business segments showed strong growth, with revenues of 224.84 billion and 259.89 billion RMB in 2024, marking increases of 21.19% and 8.39% respectively [9] - Domestic business segments, including PBG, EBG, and SMBG, reported revenues of 134.67 billion, 176.51 billion, and 119.71 billion RMB, with year-on-year declines of 12.29%, 1.09%, and 5.58% [9] Cost Control and Profitability - The company maintained a gross margin of 43.83% for 2024 and 44.92% for Q1 2025, indicating stability in a challenging demand environment [10] - The company has begun to see the effects of cost control measures, with a reduction in various expense ratios in Q1 2025 compared to the previous year [10] Research and Development Investment - Over the past five years, the company has invested a total of 477.02 billion RMB in R&D, focusing on AI, multi-dimensional perception, big data, and software [11] Dividend Policy - The company has consistently maintained a high dividend payout ratio, with cash dividends exceeding 48% since 2015, reaching 53.73% in 2024 [12]