HHTG(600095) 国泰海通证券·2025-04-21 06:05Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 11.42 CNY [2][6][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Xiangcai Co. possesses competitive advantages in traffic conversion and providing quality wealth management services. The merger with Dazhihui is expected to drive significant growth in the company's performance [3][40]. - The company is transitioning towards an "AI advisory brokerage" model, leveraging technology to enhance customer engagement and service offerings [12][31]. Financial Summary - The financial projections indicate a decline in revenue from 3,516 million CNY in 2022 to 2,321 million CNY in 2023, followed by a gradual recovery to 2,966 million CNY by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8% from 2024 to 2026 [5][16]. - Net profit is forecasted to recover from a loss of 326 million CNY in 2022 to a profit of 413 million CNY by 2026, with significant growth expected in 2025 [5][16]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from -0.11 CNY in 2022 to 0.14 CNY in 2026 [5][16]. Business Model and Strategy - Xiangcai Co. has transformed into a financial holding platform focused on securities business, with over 70% of its revenue derived from this sector [23][24]. - The company is enhancing its wealth management capabilities by integrating digital platforms and collaborating with leading financial technology firms [30][37]. - The merger with Dazhihui is anticipated to create synergies that will enhance customer acquisition, service integration, and innovative business offerings [40][41]. Valuation Methodology - The report employs a relative valuation approach, using a P/E ratio of 90x for 2025 to arrive at the target price of 11.42 CNY, reflecting the company's growth potential [18][20]. - A P/B ratio of 3x is also considered, leading to an alternative valuation of 13.01 CNY, but the report favors the more conservative P/E valuation [18][22].