流动性与机构行为跟踪42:保险、农商入场配长
德邦证券·2025-04-21 07:19
- Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - This week (April 14 - April 18), the capital interest rate increased, the net financing of large - scale banks decreased slightly, and the fund leverage declined. The net financing of certificates of deposit decreased, and the issuance and maturity yields of certificates of deposit with different maturities showed differentiation. In the cash bond trading, the main buyers were other institutions, the scale of funds' net purchases decreased, rural commercial banks increased their holdings of 7 - 10Y interest - rate bonds, and insurance companies increased their holdings of 15 - 30Y ultra - long interest - rate bonds [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monetary Capital Market - Open Market Operations: This week, there were 474.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 100 billion yuan of MLF maturing. The central bank injected a total of 808 billion yuan of reverse repurchases from Monday to Friday, with a net liquidity injection of 233.8 billion yuan for the whole week [4][9]. - Capital Interest Rates: As of April 18, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 were 1.68%, 1.71%, 1.66%, and 1.69% respectively, with changes of 3.8BP, 1.02BP, 4.21BP, and 3.91BP compared to April 11, and were at the 27%, 13%, 28%, and 9% historical quantiles respectively [4][13]. - Net Financing of Main Lenders: The net financing scale of main lenders (large - scale commercial/policy banks and joint - stock commercial banks) increased. They had a net financing of 344.7 billion yuan this week, an increase of 321.9 billion yuan compared to the previous week [4][16]. - Pledged Repurchase Trading Volume: The trading volume of pledged repurchase decreased, with an average daily trading volume of 63.3 trillion yuan, a maximum single - day trading volume of 64.5 trillion yuan, a 6% decrease compared to the previous week's average daily trading volume. The proportion of overnight repurchase transactions decreased, with an average daily proportion of 85.4%, a maximum single - day proportion of 88.1%, a decrease of 0.61 percentage points compared to the previous week's average daily proportion, and was at the 82.4% quantile as of April 18 [4][24]. - Leverage Ratio of Generalized Funds: The leverage ratio of generalized funds decreased slightly. As of April 18, the leverage ratios of banks, securities, insurance, and generalized funds were 103%, 213.2%, 128.7%, and 105.6% respectively, with changes of 0.49BP, - 0.11BP, - 0.01BP, and - 0.15BP compared to April 11, and were at the 7%, 49%, 75%, and 41% historical quantiles respectively [4][25]. 3.2 Certificates of Deposit and Bills - Issuance and Financing of Certificates of Deposit: This week, the issuance scale of certificates of deposit increased, but the net financing decreased. The total issuance was 709.6 billion yuan, an increase of 27.47 billion yuan compared to the previous week; the total maturity was 704.37 billion yuan, an increase of 168.84 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The net financing was 5.23 billion yuan, a decrease of 141.37 billion yuan compared to the previous week [4][30]. - Maturity Volume of Certificates of Deposit: The maturity volume of certificates of deposit increased this week, reaching 704.37 billion yuan, an increase of 168.84 billion yuan compared to the previous week. Next week (April 21 - April 25), the maturity volume will be 769.23 billion yuan [4][38]. - Interest Rates of Certificates of Deposit: The issuance interest rates of certificates of deposit of different banks and different maturities showed differentiation. As of April 18, the one - year issuance interest rates of joint - stock banks, state - owned banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks changed by 0.58BP, 0BP, 2.64BP, and - 2BP respectively compared to April 3, and were at the 3%, 5%, 1%, and 1% historical quantiles respectively. The issuance interest rates of 1M, 3M, and 6M certificates of deposit changed by 0.51BP, - 0.43BP, and - 1.17BP respectively compared to April 11, and were at the 6%, 4%, and 1% historical quantiles respectively [40]. - Shibor Interest Rates: This week, Shibor interest rates showed differentiation. As of April 18, the overnight, 1 - week, 2 - week, 1M, and 3M Shibor interest rates changed by 5.1BP, 3.5BP, 1.4BP, - 2.4BP, and - 2.5BP respectively compared to April 11, reaching 1.66%, 1.65%, 1.76%, 1.76%, and 1.76% respectively [41]. - Maturity Yields of Certificates of Deposit: The maturity yields of certificates of deposit showed differentiation. As of April 18, the 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y maturity yields of AAA - rated ChinaBond commercial bank certificates of deposit were 1.69%, 1.73%, 1.75%, 1.75%, and 1.76% respectively, with changes of - 3.18BP, - 0.05BP, 1BP, 1.97BP, and 2BP compared to April 11 [45]. - Bill Interest Rates: This week, bill interest rates decreased. As of April 18, the 3M direct - discount rate, 3M transfer - discount rate, 6M direct - discount rate, and 6M transfer - discount rate of state - owned and joint - stock banks were 1.1%, 1.05%, 1.08%, and 1.08% respectively, with changes of - 10BP, - 7BP, - 8BP, and - 12BP compared to April 11 [4][47]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior Tracking - Main Buyers and Sellers of Cash Bonds: This week, the main buyers of cash bonds were other institutions, with a net purchase of 98.7 billion yuan, a decrease compared to the previous week; the main sellers were city commercial banks, with a net sale of 170.9 billion yuan, also a decrease compared to the previous week [4][49]. - Institutional Bond - Buying Behavior: - Funds: Net - bought 54.8 billion yuan of cash bonds, with a reduction of 18.4 billion yuan in interest - rate bonds, an increase of 44.7 billion yuan in credit bonds, an increase of 20.8 billion yuan in other bonds (including Tier 2 capital bonds and perpetual bonds), and a reduction of 7.8 billion yuan in certificates of deposit. In terms of maturity, interest - rate bonds were mainly reduced in the 7 - 10 - year segment, and credit bonds were mainly increased in the less - than - 1 - year segment [4][49]. - Wealth Management Products: Net - bought 68.7 billion yuan of cash bonds, with an increase of 3.4 billion yuan in interest - rate bonds, an increase of 10.5 billion yuan in credit bonds, an increase of 9.7 billion yuan in other bonds (including Tier 2 capital bonds and perpetual bonds), and an increase of 45 billion yuan in certificates of deposit. In terms of maturity, interest - rate bonds were mainly increased in the 20 - 30 - year segment, and credit bonds were mainly increased in the less - than - 1 - year segment [49]. - Rural Financial Institutions: Net - bought 36.5 billion yuan of cash bonds, with an increase of 61.2 billion yuan in interest - rate bonds, an increase of 1 billion yuan in credit bonds, an increase of 4.4 billion yuan in other bonds (including Tier 2 capital bonds and perpetual bonds), and a reduction of 30 billion yuan in certificates of deposit. In terms of maturity, interest - rate bonds were mainly increased in the 7 - 10 - year segment, and credit bonds were mainly increased in the 7 - 10 - year segment [49]. - Insurance Companies: Net - bought 77.2 billion yuan of cash bonds, with an increase of 79.4 billion yuan in interest - rate bonds, an increase of 4.6 billion yuan in credit bonds, a reduction of 18.8 billion yuan in other bonds (including Tier 2 capital bonds and perpetual bonds), and an increase of 12 billion yuan in certificates of deposit. In terms of maturity, interest - rate bonds were mainly increased in the 20 - 30 - year segment, and credit bonds were mainly increased in the 3 - 5 - year segment [50].