缩小差距

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - South Asian countries face significant fiscal challenges, with average government debt at 77 percent of GDP, compared to 64 percent for EMDEs, leading to high interest payments consuming 26 percent of revenues [8][9] - Tax revenues in South Asia averaged 18 percent of GDP from 2019 to 2023, significantly below the EMDE average of 24 percent, indicating a need for improved tax policy and administration [3][9] - The report identifies tax revenue shortfalls of 1 to 7 percentage points of GDP below potential, with five of the eight countries in the region experiencing larger shortfalls than the EMDE average [3][11] Summary by Sections 1. Introduction - South Asia's fiscal challenges stem from low revenues and high debt burdens, with governments spending a disproportionate amount on interest payments [8][9] 2. Features of South Asian Revenue Collection - Low Tax Revenues: South Asia has the lowest tax revenues among EMDE regions, with all countries except Maldives falling short of the EMDE average [19] - Tax Buoyancy: Revenue buoyancies in Bangladesh and India align with EMDE averages, while Pakistan's buoyancy is in the bottom quartile [20][21] - Dependence on Indirect Taxes: The region relies heavily on indirect taxes, limiting revenue potential and equity [22] - High Tax Rates: South Asian countries have above-average tax rates on consumption and trade, yet still collect lower revenues than expected [23][24] 3. Tax Revenue Shortfalls - Methodology: The report employs stochastic frontier analysis to estimate tax revenue shortfalls, identifying inefficiencies in revenue collection [26][30] - Shortfall Results: Most South Asian countries exhibit larger shortfalls in personal and corporate income tax revenues compared to EMDE averages [37] - Direct Tax Revenue Shortfall: Countries like Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka have significant shortfalls in direct tax revenue, exceeding EMDE averages [38][39] - Indirect Tax Revenue Shortfall: Consumption tax revenues have shortfalls larger than the EMDE average in several countries, indicating systemic issues [40] - Trade Tax Shortfalls: Bhutan, Bangladesh, India, and Sri Lanka report larger trade tax revenue shortfalls than the EMDE average [42] 4. Correlates of Revenue Shortfalls and Tax Gaps - Country characteristics such as informality, agriculture sector size, and financial development contribute to tax revenue shortfalls, accounting for up to one-third of the overall shortfalls [51][52] 5. Policy Options - Tax Policy: Recommendations include rationalizing exemptions, unifying tax rates, and broadening the tax base to enhance revenue collection [60][61] - Tax Administration: Strengthening tax administration through transparency, risk management, and timely interventions is crucial for improving revenue [71][80] - Pollution Pricing: Implementing pollution pricing could address both environmental and revenue challenges in South Asia [84][85]