HUAYOU COBALT(603799) 民生证券·2025-04-22 00:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The company achieved record high performance in 2024, with a revenue of 60.946 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.08% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.155 billion yuan, an increase of 23.99% year-on-year [1][12]. - The company's growth potential is supported by a robust upstream resource layout and a solid moat in lithium battery materials, indicating a promising future growth trajectory [5][58]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 60.946 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.08%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.155 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 23.99% [1][12]. - For Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 15.457 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.61%, and a net profit of 1.134 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 235.93% [1][12]. Production and Sales - The company’s nickel segment saw a significant increase in output, with nearly 230,000 tons of nickel intermediate products shipped in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 50% [2][19]. - Lithium carbonate production reached approximately 39,000 tons in 2024, marking a substantial year-on-year increase of 377% [2][19]. Price Trends - Nickel prices are expected to rise due to a tight supply situation, while cobalt prices may also increase due to policy disruptions in the Democratic Republic of Congo [3][24]. - The average prices for key products in 2024 were 170,58 USD/ton for nickel, 12.21 USD/pound for cobalt, and 7.51 million yuan/ton for copper, with respective year-on-year changes of -4629 USD/ton, -3.57 USD/pound, and +0.70 million yuan/ton [3][24]. Project Development - The company has made significant progress in project development, including the successful commissioning of the Huafei nickel project, which has enhanced its production capacity [4][19]. - The lithium project at Arcadia has also shown promising operational results, with a shipment of approximately 400,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a year-on-year increase of 41% [4][58]. Financial Forecast - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 5.3 billion yuan, 6.135 billion yuan, and 6.311 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5][6]. - The projected PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 11X, 9X, and 9X, respectively, based on the closing price as of April 21, 2025 [5][6].