渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.04.22）-20250422

Macro and Strategy Research - In Q1 2025, national general public budget revenue was 60,189 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%, while expenditure was 72,815 billion yuan, an increase of 4.2% [2] - Government fund budget revenue was 9,247 billion yuan, down 11% year-on-year, while expenditure increased by 11.1% to 19,769 billion yuan [2][4] - Public finance expenditure in Q1 2025 showed a significant increase in social welfare spending, which grew by 6.2% year-on-year, with social security and employment spending up 7.9% and education spending up 7.8% [3] - The overall broad fiscal expenditure (public finance expenditure + government fund expenditure) increased by 5.6% year-on-year, significantly higher than the 2.7% growth in 2024 [4] Fund Research - The ETF market has surpassed 4 trillion yuan, reaching a total of 4.01 trillion yuan as of April 18, 2025, with stock ETFs accounting for 73.55% of the total [8] - The average net value of quantitative funds increased by 0.26%, while the average net value of bond funds saw a modest increase of 0.05% [9] - The net inflow for stock ETFs was 34.1 billion yuan, with the average daily trading volume reaching 2,383.64 billion yuan [10] Industry Research - The retail sales of consumer goods in Q1 2025 increased by 4.6% year-on-year, with furniture retail sales growing by 18.1% [12] - Exports of furniture and related products saw significant improvements, with growth rates of 8.2% for furniture and 9.3% for clothing [13] - The light industry and textile sectors outperformed the CSI 300 index, with the light industry gaining 1.35% and the textile sector gaining 1.57% [12]