Milkground(600882) 光大证券·2025-04-22 02:38Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company has shown significant profit improvement driven by cost reduction and efficiency enhancement, with promising performance from new products [1]. - The integration with Mengniu has led to a notable increase in cheese business revenue, with Q1 2025 cheese revenue reaching 10.30 billion CNY, up from 7.85 billion CNY in Q1 2024 [2]. - The company's gross profit margin improved to 31.5% in Q1 2025, an increase of 2.8 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to product structure optimization [3]. - The company is expected to continue benefiting from synergies with Mengniu, enhancing supply chain, channel, and brand marketing capabilities, while also accelerating new product launches [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 12.3 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.8 billion CNY, up 114.9% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 6.7%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.4 percentage points [3]. Product and Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from cheese, liquid milk, and trading in Q1 2025 was 10.30 billion CNY, 0.95 billion CNY, and 1.01 billion CNY respectively, compared to 7.85 billion CNY, 0.81 billion CNY, and 0.82 billion CNY in Q1 2024 [2]. - The company has increased its distributor count across regions, with a total of 8,046 distributors as of Q1 2025, marking a net increase of 249 distributors [2]. Profitability and Cost Management - The company’s sales expense ratio decreased to 16.8% in Q1 2025, down 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved efficiency in expense allocation [3]. - The management expense ratio remained stable at 5.0%, with other income contributing 0.9% to revenue, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.5 percentage points [3]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profits of 2.16 billion CNY, 3.24 billion CNY, and 4.57 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.42 CNY, 0.63 CNY, and 0.89 CNY [4].