LIHUA(300761) 招商证券·2025-04-22 02:33Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company has achieved significant performance improvements in Q1 2025, with a notable increase in pig sales and industry-leading per-head profitability [1][6] - The overall livestock market is experiencing favorable conditions, coupled with substantial cost improvements, driving a significant turnaround in 2024 [1][6] - The company is expected to continue expanding its market presence outside of East China, with projected annual growth rates of 8-10% for yellow feathered chicken output [6] Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to grow from 15.35 billion yuan in 2023 to 25.92 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 14% [2][18] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.93 billion yuan in 2025, with earnings per share (EPS) projected at 2.33 yuan [2][18] - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to improve from 17.7% in the most recent period to 22.5% by 2027 [3][19] Performance Highlights - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 4.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%, and a net profit of 210 million yuan, reflecting a 157% increase compared to the previous year [6][16] - The company’s pig segment is expected to maintain a leading position in profitability, with per-head earnings projected to be between 270-280 yuan [6][16] - The yellow feathered chicken output is anticipated to reach approximately 5.68 billion birds by 2025, with a sales price of around 17.3 yuan per kilogram [2][13] Business Segments - The yellow feathered chicken segment is projected to contribute significantly to revenue, with expected sales of 162.2 billion yuan in 2025 [2][13] - The pig segment is also expected to see substantial growth, with sales projected to reach 33.53 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting a 15% increase from the previous year [2][13] Market Outlook - The report indicates that the current low inventory levels of parent breeding chickens are setting the stage for potential price increases in the poultry market [6] - The company’s cost structure is improving, with total costs expected to drop below 13 yuan per kilogram, enhancing its competitive pricing advantage [6][16]