HLGF(600346) 华泰证券·2025-04-22 02:32Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company has been adjusted to "Accumulate" [8] Core Views - The company's Q1 performance exceeded expectations primarily due to significant non-recurring gains, despite facing challenges from inventory devaluation and industry destocking pressures [1][2] - The recovery of refining product margins is slow, with expectations for improvement in the polyester supply chain in the medium to long term as oil prices stabilize and supply dynamics improve [3][5] - The company is accelerating its layout in high-end chemical new materials, with plans for significant production increases in the coming years, reflecting confidence from the controlling shareholder [4] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company reported total revenue of 57.05 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.05 billion RMB, down 4.1% year-on-year [1] - The revenue from refining products, PTA, and new materials was 28.1 billion RMB, 18.0 billion RMB, and 9.3 billion RMB respectively, with year-on-year changes of +7%, -6%, and -5% [2] - The average selling prices for these products decreased by 3% to 17% year-on-year, indicating pressure on margins [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders has been revised down to 8.5 billion RMB, 10.8 billion RMB, and 11.9 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of 10% and 5% for the following years [5] - The target price has been set at 17.55 RMB, based on a PE ratio of 14.5x for 2025, down from a previous target of 19.43 RMB [5][9]