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恒力石化(600346):油价中枢回落,未来炼化景气度有望改善
600346HLGF(600346) 长江证券·2025-04-22 02:43

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 236.27 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.63%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.04 billion yuan, up 2.01% year-on-year. However, the non-recurring net profit decreased by 13.14% year-on-year to 5.21 billion yuan [2][6]. - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 58.51 billion yuan, down 5.14% year-on-year and 10.30% quarter-on-quarter, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.94 billion yuan, up 61.03% year-on-year and 78.39% quarter-on-quarter. The non-recurring net profit for the same period was 582 million yuan, down 42.91% year-on-year and 46.30% quarter-on-quarter [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company expects to achieve net profits of 7.12 billion yuan, 8.37 billion yuan, and 9.51 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 15.5X, 13.2X, and 11.6X based on the closing price on April 21, 2025 [12]. - The company has maintained a high cash dividend ratio, with cash dividends amounting to 56.07% of the net profit attributable to shareholders in 2023 [12]. Industry Position - The company is positioned as a unique large-scale chemical enterprise that integrates oil, coal, and chemicals, with significant production capacities located within the same industrial park, which reduces operational and logistics costs [12]. - The company has a production capacity of 5.2 million tons of PX and 1.8 million tons of pure benzene, which are high-value chemical products in demand [12]. Future Outlook - The company is focusing on optimizing operations, reducing debt, and enhancing shareholder returns as it approaches the end of its current investment and capital expenditure peak [12]. - New projects in fine chemicals and new materials are set to be launched, with the Suzhou Fenhu base expected to produce 470,000 tons of high-end functional polyester films annually [12].