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株冶集团:2024年报及2025年一季报点评:贵金属增益显著,老牌铅锌央企焕新生-20250422
600961ZHUYE GP(600961) 东方证券·2025-04-22 02:00

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 15.81 CNY based on a 17X PE valuation for 2025 [4][8]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant growth in precious metals, with a notable increase in revenue and net profit in recent quarters. The 2024 annual revenue reached 19.76 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 1.82%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 790 million CNY, up 28.7% [7]. - The company benefits from a strong resource and industrial chain advantage, with mining rights for key resources and a complete industrial chain covering zinc, lead, and various precious metals, enhancing its market competitiveness [7]. - The dual drivers of zinc smelting and precious metals segments have demonstrated the company's resilience, with the precious metals segment experiencing substantial revenue growth due to rising prices [7]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecast: Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 22.44 billion CNY, 23.67 billion CNY, and 25.12 billion CNY, respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 13.6% from 2024 [2][12]. - Net Profit: Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are 1 billion CNY, 1.1 billion CNY, and 1.24 billion CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 27.2% in 2025 [2][12]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): EPS is forecasted to be 0.93 CNY in 2025, increasing to 1.15 CNY by 2027 [2][12]. - Profitability Ratios: The gross margin is expected to improve from 8.8% in 2024 to 10.0% in 2027, while the net margin is projected to rise from 4.0% to 4.9% over the same period [12].