Guobo Electronics (688375) 申万宏源证券·2025-04-22 06:44Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Guobo Electronics [2][8] Core Views - The company reported 2024 revenue of 2.591 billion yuan, down 27.36% year-on-year, and a net profit of 485 million yuan, down 20.06% year-on-year. Q1 2025 revenue was 350 million yuan, down 49.51% year-on-year, with a net profit of 58 million yuan, down 52.37% year-on-year, indicating performance below market expectations [5][8] - The company is focusing on low-orbit satellites and commercial aerospace, with ongoing technology and product development in these areas, which is expected to provide long-term growth potential [8] - The company is backed by the China Electronics Technology Group Corporation, which is expected to drive steady growth in performance through military and civilian market demand [8] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - 2024 total revenue is projected at 2.591 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 27.4%. Q1 2025 revenue is expected to be 350 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 49.5%. Revenue is forecasted to recover to 3.040 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 17.3% [7][10] - The net profit for 2024 is projected at 485 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 20.1%. The forecast for Q1 2025 is 58 million yuan, down 52.4% year-on-year. The net profit is expected to increase to 587 million yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 21.1% [7][10] - The gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 38.6%, improving from the previous year, while the net margin is projected at 18.7% [8] Market Position and Strategy - The company is experiencing short-term revenue pressure due to demand fluctuations in its T/R components and RF modules, but it is actively expanding into the terminal market, which is expected to stabilize revenue in the future [8] - The company has a comprehensive industry chain layout from chips to modules and components, which positions it to benefit from external demand recovery [8] - The report has adjusted the profit forecast for 2025-2026, with net profit estimates of 587 million yuan and 735 million yuan respectively, reflecting the impact of demand fluctuations [8]