Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "A Shares Gradually Usher in Positive Signals, Gold May Continue to Fluctuate at High Levels — Fixed Income & Macroeconomic Weekly Report (20250414 - 20250420)" [3] - Report Date: April 22, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Zhang Hesheng [1] Group 2: Market Performance in the Past Week (20250414 - 20250420) Stock Market - US stocks declined, while most China - related equity indices rose. The Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.62%, 1.50%, and 2.66% respectively. The Nasdaq China Technology Index dropped 1.56%, while the Hang Seng Index rose 2.30% and the FTSE China A50 Index rose 1.45% [3] - Most A - share sectors rose, with blue - chips in the Shanghai and Beijing markets rising. The wind All - A Index rose 0.39%. Among them, the CSI A100, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, and wind Micro - cap stocks changed by 0.38%, 0.59%, - 0.37%, - 0.52%, 0.75%, and 2.95% respectively. In terms of sector styles, in the Shanghai market, growth stocks fell but blue - chips rose; in the Shenzhen market, both growth and blue - chips fell. The Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index rose 3.48% [4] - Banking and real estate led the gains. Among 30 CITIC industries, 21 rose and 9 fell. The sectors with larger increases were banking, real estate, coal, comprehensive, and petroleum and petrochemical, with weekly increases of more than 2% [5] Bond Market - Most maturity yields of interest - rate bonds increased. Treasury bond futures rose, with the 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract rising 0.07% compared to April 11, 2025. The yield of the 10 - year active Treasury bond fell 0.75 BP to 1.6493% [6] - Capital prices increased, and the bond market leverage level decreased. As of April 18, 2025, R007 was 1.7116%, up 1.02 BP from April 11, 2025; DR007 was 1.6925%, up 3.91 BP. The central bank's net injection in the past week was 333.8 billion yuan. The bond market leverage level decreased, with the 5 - day average of inter - bank pledged repo volume decreasing from 6.71 trillion yuan on April 11, 2025, to 6.33 trillion yuan on April 18, 2025 [7] - US Treasury prices rose, and most maturity yields declined. As of April 17, 2025, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 14 BP to 4.34%. Most maturity yields declined in the past week, with the 3 - 10 - year maturity yields falling by 14 - 20 BP [8] Foreign Exchange and Commodity Markets - The US dollar depreciated, and the on - shore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar appreciated. The US dollar index fell 0.54%. The US dollar exchange rate against the offshore RMB rose 0.31% to 7.3037, and the US dollar exchange rate against the on - shore RMB fell 0.28% to 7.3039 [10] - Gold prices rose. The London gold spot price rose 2.33% to 3323.10 per ounce, both hitting record highs on April 16 [11] Group 3: Market Outlook Stock Market - A shares are gradually ushering in positive signals. Although the US imposing high tariffs will bring short - term pressure, China's long - term economic trend remains positive. After the release of Q1 economic data and the upcoming release of annual and Q1 reports by listed companies, the risk of lower - than - expected performance is fading. The Politburo meeting at the end of April may introduce incremental policies to boost capital market confidence [12] Bond Market - Bond market yields may remain in low - level fluctuations. Since the Q1 data of consumption, investment, and GDP are good and the central bank has not cut interest rates or reserve requirements, there is no opportunity for yields to break downward, and Treasury bond yields may continue to fluctuate at low levels [12] Commodity Market - Gold may continue to fluctuate at high levels. The US's large - scale tariff increase may have a negative impact on its economy, increasing the probability of a US economic recession. The US dollar and US Treasury yields may continue to decline, and gold is expected to remain in high - level fluctuations [13]
固收、宏观周报：A股逐步迎来积极信号，黄金或延续高位震荡-20250422
上海证券·2025-04-22 08:29