Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core View - During the period from April 14th to April 20th, most of the issuance guidance rates announced by the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors (NAFMII) declined, with an overall change range of -5 BP to 5 BP. The issuance scale of credit bonds increased month - on - month, while the issuance amount of private placement notes decreased and that of other varieties increased. The net financing of credit bonds decreased month - on - month. The net financing of enterprise bonds, corporate bonds, and private placement notes decreased, while that of medium - term notes and commercial paper increased. The net financing of enterprise bonds and private placement notes was negative, while that of corporate bonds, medium - term notes, and commercial paper was positive. In the secondary market, the trading volume of credit bonds increased month - on - month, with the trading volume of enterprise bonds decreasing and that of other varieties increasing. Most of the yields of credit bonds fluctuated upwards. The credit spreads of credit bonds were differentiated. The spreads of medium - and short - term notes showed mixed trends, the short - end spreads of enterprise bonds generally narrowed while the long - end spreads generally widened, and the spreads of urban investment bonds within 5 - year maturity generally narrowed while the 7 - year spreads widened. From the perspective of quantiles, the spreads of all grades of 1 - year bonds were basically at historical lows, with low allocation cost - effectiveness, while the credit spreads of AAA - rated 5 - year bonds were relatively high. From the perspective of absolute return, the relatively strong allocation demand continued to drive the recovery market. Although it was inevitable to have volatile adjustments under the influence of multiple factors, overall, the conditions for a full - scale bear market in credit bonds were still insufficient. In the long run, the yields would still enter a downward channel, and the idea of increasing allocation during adjustments was still feasible. From the perspective of relative return, currently, there was insufficient compression space for short - end credit spreads, so it was advisable to wait for the right time to allocate. The narrow spread space also drove the demand for increasing duration to enhance returns, and high - grade 5 - year bonds still had relatively good allocation value. Considering the possible volatile market, it was necessary to coordinate and switch between allocation and trading strategies according to the trend. In the future, it was still necessary to pay attention to the impact of the effectiveness of pro - growth policies on the bond market and the influence of changes in the capital situation and supply - demand pattern on market sentiment [1][54]. - Based on the change in the supply - demand relationship in China's real estate market, the central and local governments continued to actively optimize real estate policies, and the supportive policies continued to take effect, which played a positive role in promoting the stabilization of the real estate market. Although the real estate market was still in the adjustment stage, with the effectiveness of various policies to stabilize the property market, the housing prices generally remained stable in the first quarter of this year. In March, the prices of new and second - hand houses in cities of all tiers showed positive changes, the real estate market transactions continued to improve, and the operating conditions of real estate enterprises improved. In the next stage, restrictive measures would be adjusted according to local conditions, the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated houses would be accelerated, the potential of rigid and improved housing demand would be fully released, the construction of "good houses" would be continuously strengthened, and a new model for real estate development would be actively established to promote the sustainable and healthy development of the real estate market. For real estate bonds, the sales recovery process would have a significant impact on bond valuations. As the market showed signs of stabilization, funds with higher risk appetite could consider early layout, and it was necessary to balance risks and returns. The focus of allocation should still be on central and state - owned enterprises with stable historical valuations and excellent performance, as well as high - quality private enterprise bonds with strong guarantees. Duration could be extended to enhance returns, and trading opportunities brought by the valuation repair of oversold real estate enterprise bonds could also be appropriately explored. For urban investment bonds, against the background of pro - growth and prevention of systemic risks, the probability of default of urban investment bonds was very low, and urban investment bonds could still be a key allocation variety for credit bonds. The general trend of urban investment bonds would be determined by the combined force of debt resolution and development, and there was no short - term credit risk. At present, the strategy for urban investment bonds could still be proactive [2][58]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Primary Market Situation 1.1 Issuance and Maturity Scale - From April 14th to April 20th, a total of 510 credit bonds, including enterprise bonds, corporate bonds, medium - term notes, commercial paper, and private placement notes, were issued, with a total issuance amount of 419.768 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 39.26%. The net financing of credit bonds was 80.009 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 3.035 billion yuan [11]. - By variety, 4 enterprise bonds were issued, with an issuance amount of 3.016 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 108.00%, and the net financing was - 8.475 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 3.991 billion yuan. 216 corporate bonds were issued, with an issuance amount of 159.046 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 19.57%, and the net financing was 50.442 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 20.233 billion yuan. 158 medium - term notes were issued, with an issuance amount of 144.809 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 69.65%, and the net financing was 40.099 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 21.614 billion yuan. 109 commercial papers were issued, with an issuance amount of 99.743 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 47.95%, and the net financing was 1.717 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 1.857 billion yuan. 23 private placement notes were issued, with an issuance amount of 13.154 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 7.23%, and the net financing was - 3.774 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 2.281 billion yuan [12]. 1.2 Issuance Interest Rates - Most of the issuance guidance rates announced by the NAFMII declined, with an overall change range of -5 BP to 5 BP. By maturity, the interest rate change range of 1 - year bonds was -3 BP to 1 BP, that of 3 - year bonds was -5 BP to 2 BP, that of 5 - year bonds was -2 BP to 3 BP, and that of 7 - year bonds was 0 BP to 5 BP. By grade, the interest rate change range of key AAA - rated and AAA - rated bonds was -3 BP to 1 BP, that of AA + - rated bonds was -3 BP to 2 BP, that of AA - rated bonds was -5 BP to 1 BP, and that of AA - - rated bonds was -2 BP to 5 BP [13]. 2. Secondary Market Situation 2.1 Market Trading Volume - From April 14th to April 20th, the total trading volume of credit bonds was 858.62 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 13.02%. The trading volumes of enterprise bonds, corporate bonds, medium - term notes, commercial paper, and private placement notes were 24.177 billion yuan, 282.328 billion yuan, 307.759 billion yuan, 177.929 billion yuan, and 66.427 billion yuan respectively. The trading volume of credit bonds increased month - on - month, with the trading volume of enterprise bonds decreasing and that of other varieties increasing [16]. 2.2 Credit Spreads - For medium - and short - term notes, the credit spreads of each variety showed mixed trends. Specifically, for 1 - year bonds, the spreads of AA + - rated and above bonds widened, while those of AA - rated and below bonds narrowed; for 3 - year bonds, the spreads of AA - rated bonds widened, while those of other varieties narrowed; for 5 - year bonds, the spreads of AA + - rated and above bonds narrowed, the spreads of AA - rated bonds widened, and the spreads of AA - - rated bonds remained unchanged; the spreads of 7 - year bonds widened [19]. - For enterprise bonds, the credit spreads of each variety were differentiated. Specifically, for 1 - year and 3 - year bonds, the spreads of AA + - rated bonds widened, while those of other varieties narrowed; for 5 - year bonds, the spreads of AAA - rated bonds narrowed, while those of other varieties widened; the spreads of 7 - year bonds widened [25]. - For urban investment bonds, the credit spreads of each variety were differentiated. Specifically, for 1 - year and 5 - year bonds, the spreads of AA - - rated bonds widened, while those of other varieties narrowed; the spreads of 3 - year bonds narrowed; the spreads of 7 - year bonds widened [32]. 2.3 Term Spreads and Rating Spreads - For AA + medium - and short - term notes, the 3Y - 1Y term spread widened by 0.38 BP, the 5Y - 3Y spread narrowed by 1.57 BP, and the 7Y - 3Y spread narrowed by 2.61 BP. Currently, the 3Y - 1Y spread was at a historical low, at the 11.3% quantile, the 5Y - 3Y spread was at a historical low, at the 11.0% quantile, and the 7Y - 3Y spread was at a historical low, at the 16.1% quantile. In terms of rating spreads, the (AA - )-(AAA) spread of 3 - year medium - and short - term notes narrowed by 0.50 BP, the (AA)-(AAA) spread widened by 3.50 BP, and the (AA + )-(AAA) spread widened by 2.00 BP. Currently, the (AA - )-(AAA) spread was at a historical low, at the 4.9% quantile, the (AA)-(AAA) spread was at a historical low, at the 8.7% quantile, and the (AA + )-(AAA) spread was at a historical low, at the 11.7% quantile [39]. - For AA + enterprise bonds, the 3Y - 1Y term spread widened by 1.78 BP, the 5Y - 3Y spread narrowed by 1.41 BP, and the 7Y - 3Y spread narrowed by 4.06 BP. Currently, the 3Y - 1Y spread was at a historical low, at the 12.4% quantile, the 5Y - 3Y spread was at a historical low, at the 7.0% quantile, and the 7Y - 3Y spread was at a historical low, at the 14.7% quantile. In terms of rating spreads, the (AA - )-(AAA) spread of 3 - year enterprise bonds narrowed by 0.39 BP, the (AA)-(AAA) spread widened by 2.11 BP, and the (AA + )-(AAA) spread widened by 4.00 BP. Currently, the (AA - )-(AAA) spread was at a historical low, at the 4.8% quantile, the (AA)-(AAA) spread was at a historical low, at the 7.4% quantile, and the (AA + )-(AAA) spread was at a historical low, at the 15.5% quantile [45]. - For AA + urban investment bonds, the 3Y - 1Y term spread narrowed by 0.43 BP, the 5Y - 3Y spread narrowed by 2.43 BP, and the 7Y - 3Y spread widened by 0.87 BP. Currently, the 3Y - 1Y spread was at a historical low, at the 9.2% quantile, the 5Y - 3Y spread was at a historical low, at the 7.1% quantile, and the 7Y - 3Y spread was at a historical low, at the 17.7% quantile. In terms of rating spreads, the (AA - )-(AAA) spread of 3 - year urban investment bonds narrowed by 1.00 BP, the (AA)-(AAA) spread narrowed by 1.00 BP, and the (AA + )-(AAA) spread narrowed by 1.00 BP. Currently, the (AA - )-(AAA) spread was at a historical low, at the 4.3% quantile, the (AA)-(AAA) spread was at a historical low, at the 8.6% quantile, and the (AA + )-(AAA) spread was at a historical low, at the 10.1% quantile [48]. 3. Credit Rating Adjustment and Default Bond Statistics 3.1 Credit Rating Adjustment Statistics - According to Gildata statistics, there were no company rating (including outlook) adjustments during the period from April 14th to April 20th [52]. 3.2 Default and Extended - maturity Bond Statistics - In terms of bond defaults, according to iFinD statistics, there were no credit bond defaults during the period from April 14th to April 20th. In terms of bond extensions, there were no credit bond extensions during the same period [53]. 4. Investment Views - The views are the same as the core views mentioned above [1][54][58].
信用债周报:发行及成交规模增长,收益率多数上行-20250422
渤海证券·2025-04-22 10:19