公 公司点评 司 一季度利润增长超 40%，今年业绩向好可期待 研 ——欧派家居(603833)2025 年一季报点评 | 究 分析师： 袁艺博 SAC NO： S1150521120002 年 | | --- | | 2025 | | 04 | | 月 | | 30 日 | 轻工制造-------定制家居 证券分析师 袁艺博 yuanyb@bhzq.com 022-23839135 | 上次评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | | 最新收盘价： | 64.92 | 研 评 善，期待今年逐步复苏——欧 派家居（603833）事件点评 评 2024.10.29 盈利预测与评级 2025.01.20 单季度经营边际有改善，期待 后续逐步复苏——欧派家居 （603833）2024 年三季报点 公司作为行业龙头，大家居战略深化推进，并持续提升经营质量。在中性情 景下，我们维持公司 2025-2027 年 EPS 为 4.54 元/4.84 元/5.17 元的预测，对 应 2025 年 PE 为 14.31 倍，高于可比公司均值，但考虑到公司为行业龙头企 业，可享有一定估值溢价，故维持"增持"评级。 风险提 ...

Fixed Income Research - The issuance scale of credit bonds has increased to a historical high, with most yields continuing to rise [2] - The net financing amount of credit bonds has increased, with medium-term notes and short-term financing bonds seeing positive net financing [2] - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with a focus on the impact of growth policies on the bond market [2] Fund Research - The performance of the SME board index has been outstanding, while there has been significant outflow from broad-based indices [4] - The public fund market is facing pressure due to fee reforms and increased market volatility, leading to a noticeable trend of industry differentiation [5] - Equity funds have performed well, with mixed-asset funds showing positive returns, while bond funds have had average performance [5] Industry Research - The real estate market is stabilizing due to supportive policies, with improved transaction conditions and a positive outlook for housing demand [3] - The pet food market is experiencing a trend towards premiumization, with significant growth expected in the domestic pet market [9] - The home furnishing sector is showing signs of improvement, although some companies are still facing challenges [10] Company Research - The company reported a revenue of 1.592 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit increase of 48.50%, but faced a decline in Q1 2025 revenue [12] - The outdoor and chip businesses have shown growth, with the chip business achieving a revenue increase of 66.56% in 2024 [15] - The company is focusing on enhancing its core brands and optimizing supply chain management to improve profitability [13][14]

Macro and Strategy Research - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the need to "make good use of existing policies," indicating sufficient incremental reserves to address current economic conditions [2][4] - The meeting acknowledged the positive economic trends and the need for high-quality development to counter external uncertainties, while also recognizing the challenges posed by domestic instability and external shocks [3][4] - Fiscal policies are set to accelerate, with a focus on increasing bond issuance and ensuring support for employment and enterprises, while monetary policies will provide additional support for the real economy [4][5] - Consumer spending remains a priority, with policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and enhancing service consumption to stabilize the economy [5][6] - The meeting highlighted the importance of fostering new productive forces and addressing key core technology challenges, particularly in the technology sector [6] - Measures to stabilize foreign trade and support struggling enterprises were reiterated, with a commitment to high-level opening-up and assistance for businesses affected by external pressures [8] Company Research Oppein Home Group (603833) - The company reported a revenue decline of 16.93% to 18.925 billion yuan in 2024, marking the first instance of both revenue and profit decline in its 30-year history [11] - Despite the revenue drop, the company improved its profitability and operating cash flow through supply chain reforms and cost management, achieving a gross margin increase of 1.75 percentage points to 35.91% [11][12] - The company’s contract liabilities saw significant growth by 96.60% year-on-year by the end of 2024, indicating potential recovery in performance as domestic furniture sales improve [12][13] Aima Technology (603529) - The company achieved a revenue of 6.232 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25.82%, with net profit increasing by 25.12% to 605 million yuan [15] - The company benefited from the "old-for-new" policy, which significantly boosted sales and improved product structure, leading to enhanced profitability [15][16] - Aima's operating cash flow surged by 91.14% in Q1 2025, demonstrating effective operational efficiency and cash management [15]

Company Research - The company reported a revenue of 4.465 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.15%, and a net profit of 394 million yuan, up 68.89% year-on-year, with a basic earnings per share of 1.34 yuan [12] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.101 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.41%, and a net profit of 91.155 million yuan, up 62.13% year-on-year, with a basic earnings per share of 0.31 yuan [12] - The company's gross margin improved due to higher margins on staple and canned products, with gross margins increasing by 1.88 and 4.02 percentage points year-on-year to 28.16% and 31.87% respectively in 2024 and Q1 2025 [12][13] - The company focused on enhancing its own brand marketing, leading to a significant increase in brand recognition and sales, with a 131% year-on-year growth in GMV during the Double 11 shopping festival in 2024 [13][15] - The company expanded its overseas market presence, entering 9 new countries in 2024, and its overseas revenue growth rate was 14.62% for the year, with further production capacity expansion planned for Canada and the US [15][16] Industry Research - The overall number of equity funds increased to 6,774 by the end of Q1 2025, with a total scale of 74,529.42 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 1,005.15 billion yuan from the previous quarter [9] - The average equity fund position increased, with flexible allocation funds seeing the largest rise of 1.44 percentage points to 71.90% [9][10] - The industry saw an increase in allocation towards automotive and non-ferrous metals, while reducing exposure to electric power equipment and non-bank financials [10][11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [2][11]. Core Insights - The company achieved significant growth in performance, with a revenue of 4.465 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.15%, and a net profit of 394 million yuan, up 68.89% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company's gross margin improved due to increased profitability in staple food and canned products, with gross margins rising by 1.88 and 4.02 percentage points in 2024 and Q1 2025, respectively [2][4]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its own brand marketing, which has led to a substantial increase in sales and market recognition, including a 131% year-on-year growth in GMV during the Double 11 shopping festival [4][5]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 4.465 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 19.15%, and a net profit of 394 million yuan, reflecting a 68.89% increase [2][17]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected to be 1.34 yuan, with forecasts of 1.56 yuan, 1.85 yuan, and 2.21 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [11][17]. - The company’s operating cash flow for 2024 was 4.96 billion yuan, showing an 11.02% increase year-on-year, and the inventory turnover days decreased significantly [2][17]. Market Strategy and Expansion - The company has expanded its own brand presence both domestically and internationally, entering 9 new countries in 2024, bringing its global market coverage to 73 countries [5][6]. - The domestic market revenue from its own brand reached 1.414 billion yuan in 2024, a 30.26% increase year-on-year, with staple food revenue growing by 91.85% to 1.107 billion yuan [4][6]. - The company is enhancing its overseas business capabilities, with significant growth in revenue from its OEM business, which reached 2.616 billion yuan in 2024, a 21.21% increase [5][6].

Market Review - In the past five trading days (April 18 to April 24), major indices showed mixed performance; the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.52% and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.42% [2] - The trading volume continued to shrink, with a total of 5.38 trillion yuan traded, averaging 1.08 trillion yuan per day, a decrease of 859.79 billion yuan compared to the previous five-day average [2] - Among the industries, the automotive, machinery equipment, and home appliances sectors saw the highest gains, while social services, food and beverage, and agriculture sectors experienced the largest declines [2] Policy Insights - On April 21, the State Council issued opinions on enhancing the strategy for free trade zones, focusing on improving trade competitiveness, investment facilitation reforms, and building a technology innovation ecosystem [3] - The plan aims to strengthen the role of free trade zones as experimental windows for opening up, particularly in stabilizing foreign trade amid a complex external environment [3] - Local governments are actively promoting consumption-boosting initiatives, with Guangdong and Shanghai holding meetings to discuss measures to increase residents' income and optimize the consumption environment [3] Strategy Outlook - Following Trump's statement on potentially reducing tariffs on China, there has been a noticeable recovery in overseas market risk appetite, which is expected to positively influence domestic investor sentiment [4] - The upcoming Politburo meeting is anticipated to provide clear guidance on incremental policies, which could significantly impact market expectations [4] - Short-term focus areas include: (1) policy-driven opportunities in the consumer sector due to rising domestic demand; (2) investment opportunities in the TMT sector driven by domestic substitution and self-control initiatives; (3) defensive attributes in high dividend yield and stable cash flow sectors such as utilities [4]

Market Overview - The A-share market saw most major indices rise last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.98%, while the ChiNext Index experienced a slight decline of 0.10% [2] - As of April 22, the margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1,803.885 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.814 billion yuan from the previous week [2] Industry Insights Financial Sector - The non-bank financial, power equipment, and banking sectors had lower net buying amounts, while the basic chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and social services sectors saw higher net buying [3] - The financing buy-in ratio was notably high in the non-bank financial, banking, and non-ferrous metals sectors, while it was lower in beauty care, textile and apparel, and light industry manufacturing [3] Metal Industry - The U.S. is providing fast-track approval for ten copper, lithium, coal, and other mineral projects, which may impact supply dynamics [5] - The market sentiment for steel is gradually improving, with expectations for price rebounds if tariff issues ease or more domestic stimulus policies are introduced [5] - Copper prices are expected to face limited upward movement due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies and inflation concerns [6] - Gold prices are supported by its safe-haven appeal amid trade and tariff uncertainties, alongside expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts [6] Machinery Equipment Industry - The engineering machinery import and export trade reached 5.167 billion USD in March, marking a year-on-year increase of 7.53% [8] - The excavator sales in the first quarter of 2025 totaled 61,400 units, a year-on-year increase of 22.80%, indicating strong domestic market performance [8] - Major companies in the engineering machinery sector are actively repurchasing shares, reflecting confidence in long-term industry growth [8] Company Recommendations - The report maintains a "neutral" rating for the steel industry and a "positive" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, with specific stock recommendations including Luoyang Molybdenum (603993), Zhongjin Gold (600489), Shandong Gold (600547), Zijin Mining (601899), and China Aluminum (601600) [6]

Group 1: Fixed Income Research - The issuance and transaction scale of credit bonds increased, with most yields rising, indicating a mixed market sentiment [2] - The net financing amount for credit bonds decreased, with corporate bonds and directed tools showing negative net financing, while medium-term notes and short-term financing bonds saw positive net financing [2] - The credit spread showed differentiation, with short-term notes fluctuating and corporate bonds' short-end spreads narrowing while long-end spreads widened [2] Group 2: Real Estate Market - The real estate market is stabilizing due to ongoing supportive policies, with first-quarter housing prices showing positive changes across various cities [3] - The recovery in sales is expected to significantly impact bond valuations, with a focus on high-quality central and state-owned enterprise bonds [3] - City investment bonds are considered a key investment category, with low default risk anticipated in the short term [3] Group 3: Company Research - Guai Bao Pet (乖宝宠物) - Guai Bao Pet reported a revenue of 5.245 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 21.22%, and a net profit of 625 million yuan, up 45.68% [5] - The company's gross margin improved to 42.27% in 2024, with a net margin of 11.96%, reflecting enhanced profitability [6] - The self-owned brand revenue reached 3.545 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 29.14%, and accounted for 67.59% of total revenue [6] - Direct sales channels saw significant growth, with revenue from direct sales reaching 1.969 billion yuan, a 59.33% increase [6] - The company is projected to have an EPS of 2.03, 2.57, and 3.21 yuan for 2025-2027, maintaining a "buy" rating due to its strong market position [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core View - During the period from April 14th to April 20th, most of the issuance guidance rates announced by the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors (NAFMII) declined, with an overall change range of -5 BP to 5 BP. The issuance scale of credit bonds increased month - on - month, while the issuance amount of private placement notes decreased and that of other varieties increased. The net financing of credit bonds decreased month - on - month. The net financing of enterprise bonds, corporate bonds, and private placement notes decreased, while that of medium - term notes and commercial paper increased. The net financing of enterprise bonds and private placement notes was negative, while that of corporate bonds, medium - term notes, and commercial paper was positive. In the secondary market, the trading volume of credit bonds increased month - on - month, with the trading volume of enterprise bonds decreasing and that of other varieties increasing. Most of the yields of credit bonds fluctuated upwards. The credit spreads of credit bonds were differentiated. The spreads of medium - and short - term notes showed mixed trends, the short - end spreads of enterprise bonds generally narrowed while the long - end spreads generally widened, and the spreads of urban investment bonds within 5 - year maturity generally narrowed while the 7 - year spreads widened. From the perspective of quantiles, the spreads of all grades of 1 - year bonds were basically at historical lows, with low allocation cost - effectiveness, while the credit spreads of AAA - rated 5 - year bonds were relatively high. From the perspective of absolute return, the relatively strong allocation demand continued to drive the recovery market. Although it was inevitable to have volatile adjustments under the influence of multiple factors, overall, the conditions for a full - scale bear market in credit bonds were still insufficient. In the long run, the yields would still enter a downward channel, and the idea of increasing allocation during adjustments was still feasible. From the perspective of relative return, currently, there was insufficient compression space for short - end credit spreads, so it was advisable to wait for the right time to allocate. The narrow spread space also drove the demand for increasing duration to enhance returns, and high - grade 5 - year bonds still had relatively good allocation value. Considering the possible volatile market, it was necessary to coordinate and switch between allocation and trading strategies according to the trend. In the future, it was still necessary to pay attention to the impact of the effectiveness of pro - growth policies on the bond market and the influence of changes in the capital situation and supply - demand pattern on market sentiment [1][54]. - Based on the change in the supply - demand relationship in China's real estate market, the central and local governments continued to actively optimize real estate policies, and the supportive policies continued to take effect, which played a positive role in promoting the stabilization of the real estate market. Although the real estate market was still in the adjustment stage, with the effectiveness of various policies to stabilize the property market, the housing prices generally remained stable in the first quarter of this year. In March, the prices of new and second - hand houses in cities of all tiers showed positive changes, the real estate market transactions continued to improve, and the operating conditions of real estate enterprises improved. In the next stage, restrictive measures would be adjusted according to local conditions, the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated houses would be accelerated, the potential of rigid and improved housing demand would be fully released, the construction of "good houses" would be continuously strengthened, and a new model for real estate development would be actively established to promote the sustainable and healthy development of the real estate market. For real estate bonds, the sales recovery process would have a significant impact on bond valuations. As the market showed signs of stabilization, funds with higher risk appetite could consider early layout, and it was necessary to balance risks and returns. The focus of allocation should still be on central and state - owned enterprises with stable historical valuations and excellent performance, as well as high - quality private enterprise bonds with strong guarantees. Duration could be extended to enhance returns, and trading opportunities brought by the valuation repair of oversold real estate enterprise bonds could also be appropriately explored. For urban investment bonds, against the background of pro - growth and prevention of systemic risks, the probability of default of urban investment bonds was very low, and urban investment bonds could still be a key allocation variety for credit bonds. The general trend of urban investment bonds would be determined by the combined force of debt resolution and development, and there was no short - term credit risk. At present, the strategy for urban investment bonds could still be proactive [2][58]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Primary Market Situation 1.1 Issuance and Maturity Scale - From April 14th to April 20th, a total of 510 credit bonds, including enterprise bonds, corporate bonds, medium - term notes, commercial paper, and private placement notes, were issued, with a total issuance amount of 419.768 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 39.26%. The net financing of credit bonds was 80.009 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 3.035 billion yuan [11]. - By variety, 4 enterprise bonds were issued, with an issuance amount of 3.016 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 108.00%, and the net financing was - 8.475 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 3.991 billion yuan. 216 corporate bonds were issued, with an issuance amount of 159.046 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 19.57%, and the net financing was 50.442 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 20.233 billion yuan. 158 medium - term notes were issued, with an issuance amount of 144.809 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 69.65%, and the net financing was 40.099 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 21.614 billion yuan. 109 commercial papers were issued, with an issuance amount of 99.743 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 47.95%, and the net financing was 1.717 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 1.857 billion yuan. 23 private placement notes were issued, with an issuance amount of 13.154 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 7.23%, and the net financing was - 3.774 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 2.281 billion yuan [12]. 1.2 Issuance Interest Rates - Most of the issuance guidance rates announced by the NAFMII declined, with an overall change range of -5 BP to 5 BP. By maturity, the interest rate change range of 1 - year bonds was -3 BP to 1 BP, that of 3 - year bonds was -5 BP to 2 BP, that of 5 - year bonds was -2 BP to 3 BP, and that of 7 - year bonds was 0 BP to 5 BP. By grade, the interest rate change range of key AAA - rated and AAA - rated bonds was -3 BP to 1 BP, that of AA + - rated bonds was -3 BP to 2 BP, that of AA - rated bonds was -5 BP to 1 BP, and that of AA - - rated bonds was -2 BP to 5 BP [13]. 2. Secondary Market Situation 2.1 Market Trading Volume - From April 14th to April 20th, the total trading volume of credit bonds was 858.62 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 13.02%. The trading volumes of enterprise bonds, corporate bonds, medium - term notes, commercial paper, and private placement notes were 24.177 billion yuan, 282.328 billion yuan, 307.759 billion yuan, 177.929 billion yuan, and 66.427 billion yuan respectively. The trading volume of credit bonds increased month - on - month, with the trading volume of enterprise bonds decreasing and that of other varieties increasing [16]. 2.2 Credit Spreads - For medium - and short - term notes, the credit spreads of each variety showed mixed trends. Specifically, for 1 - year bonds, the spreads of AA + - rated and above bonds widened, while those of AA - rated and below bonds narrowed; for 3 - year bonds, the spreads of AA - rated bonds widened, while those of other varieties narrowed; for 5 - year bonds, the spreads of AA + - rated and above bonds narrowed, the spreads of AA - rated bonds widened, and the spreads of AA - - rated bonds remained unchanged; the spreads of 7 - year bonds widened [19]. - For enterprise bonds, the credit spreads of each variety were differentiated. Specifically, for 1 - year and 3 - year bonds, the spreads of AA + - rated bonds widened, while those of other varieties narrowed; for 5 - year bonds, the spreads of AAA - rated bonds narrowed, while those of other varieties widened; the spreads of 7 - year bonds widened [25]. - For urban investment bonds, the credit spreads of each variety were differentiated. Specifically, for 1 - year and 5 - year bonds, the spreads of AA - - rated bonds widened, while those of other varieties narrowed; the spreads of 3 - year bonds narrowed; the spreads of 7 - year bonds widened [32]. 2.3 Term Spreads and Rating Spreads - For AA + medium - and short - term notes, the 3Y - 1Y term spread widened by 0.38 BP, the 5Y - 3Y spread narrowed by 1.57 BP, and the 7Y - 3Y spread narrowed by 2.61 BP. Currently, the 3Y - 1Y spread was at a historical low, at the 11.3% quantile, the 5Y - 3Y spread was at a historical low, at the 11.0% quantile, and the 7Y - 3Y spread was at a historical low, at the 16.1% quantile. In terms of rating spreads, the (AA - )-(AAA) spread of 3 - year medium - and short - term notes narrowed by 0.50 BP, the (AA)-(AAA) spread widened by 3.50 BP, and the (AA + )-(AAA) spread widened by 2.00 BP. Currently, the (AA - )-(AAA) spread was at a historical low, at the 4.9% quantile, the (AA)-(AAA) spread was at a historical low, at the 8.7% quantile, and the (AA + )-(AAA) spread was at a historical low, at the 11.7% quantile [39]. - For AA + enterprise bonds, the 3Y - 1Y term spread widened by 1.78 BP, the 5Y - 3Y spread narrowed by 1.41 BP, and the 7Y - 3Y spread narrowed by 4.06 BP. Currently, the 3Y - 1Y spread was at a historical low, at the 12.4% quantile, the 5Y - 3Y spread was at a historical low, at the 7.0% quantile, and the 7Y - 3Y spread was at a historical low, at the 14.7% quantile. In terms of rating spreads, the (AA - )-(AAA) spread of 3 - year enterprise bonds narrowed by 0.39 BP, the (AA)-(AAA) spread widened by 2.11 BP, and the (AA + )-(AAA) spread widened by 4.00 BP. Currently, the (AA - )-(AAA) spread was at a historical low, at the 4.8% quantile, the (AA)-(AAA) spread was at a historical low, at the 7.4% quantile, and the (AA + )-(AAA) spread was at a historical low, at the 15.5% quantile [45]. - For AA + urban investment bonds, the 3Y - 1Y term spread narrowed by 0.43 BP, the 5Y - 3Y spread narrowed by 2.43 BP, and the 7Y - 3Y spread widened by 0.87 BP. Currently, the 3Y - 1Y spread was at a historical low, at the 9.2% quantile, the 5Y - 3Y spread was at a historical low, at the 7.1% quantile, and the 7Y - 3Y spread was at a historical low, at the 17.7% quantile. In terms of rating spreads, the (AA - )-(AAA) spread of 3 - year urban investment bonds narrowed by 1.00 BP, the (AA)-(AAA) spread narrowed by 1.00 BP, and the (AA + )-(AAA) spread narrowed by 1.00 BP. Currently, the (AA - )-(AAA) spread was at a historical low, at the 4.3% quantile, the (AA)-(AAA) spread was at a historical low, at the 8.6% quantile, and the (AA + )-(AAA) spread was at a historical low, at the 10.1% quantile [48]. 3. Credit Rating Adjustment and Default Bond Statistics 3.1 Credit Rating Adjustment Statistics - According to Gildata statistics, there were no company rating (including outlook) adjustments during the period from April 14th to April 20th [52]. 3.2 Default and Extended - maturity Bond Statistics - In terms of bond defaults, according to iFinD statistics, there were no credit bond defaults during the period from April 14th to April 20th. In terms of bond extensions, there were no credit bond extensions during the same period [53]. 4. Investment Views - The views are the same as the core views mentioned above [1][54][58].

Macro and Strategy Research - In Q1 2025, national general public budget revenue was 60,189 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%, while expenditure was 72,815 billion yuan, an increase of 4.2% [2] - Government fund budget revenue was 9,247 billion yuan, down 11% year-on-year, while expenditure increased by 11.1% to 19,769 billion yuan [2][4] - Public finance expenditure in Q1 2025 showed a significant increase in social welfare spending, which grew by 6.2% year-on-year, with social security and employment spending up 7.9% and education spending up 7.8% [3] - The overall broad fiscal expenditure (public finance expenditure + government fund expenditure) increased by 5.6% year-on-year, significantly higher than the 2.7% growth in 2024 [4] Fund Research - The ETF market has surpassed 4 trillion yuan, reaching a total of 4.01 trillion yuan as of April 18, 2025, with stock ETFs accounting for 73.55% of the total [8] - The average net value of quantitative funds increased by 0.26%, while the average net value of bond funds saw a modest increase of 0.05% [9] - The net inflow for stock ETFs was 34.1 billion yuan, with the average daily trading volume reaching 2,383.64 billion yuan [10] Industry Research - The retail sales of consumer goods in Q1 2025 increased by 4.6% year-on-year, with furniture retail sales growing by 18.1% [12] - Exports of furniture and related products saw significant improvements, with growth rates of 8.2% for furniture and 9.3% for clothing [13] - The light industry and textile sectors outperformed the CSI 300 index, with the light industry gaining 1.35% and the textile sector gaining 1.57% [12]