渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.04.25）-20250425

Market Review - In the past five trading days (April 18 to April 24), major indices showed mixed performance; the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.52% and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.42% [2] - The trading volume continued to shrink, with a total of 5.38 trillion yuan traded, averaging 1.08 trillion yuan per day, a decrease of 859.79 billion yuan compared to the previous five-day average [2] - Among the industries, the automotive, machinery equipment, and home appliances sectors saw the highest gains, while social services, food and beverage, and agriculture sectors experienced the largest declines [2] Policy Insights - On April 21, the State Council issued opinions on enhancing the strategy for free trade zones, focusing on improving trade competitiveness, investment facilitation reforms, and building a technology innovation ecosystem [3] - The plan aims to strengthen the role of free trade zones as experimental windows for opening up, particularly in stabilizing foreign trade amid a complex external environment [3] - Local governments are actively promoting consumption-boosting initiatives, with Guangdong and Shanghai holding meetings to discuss measures to increase residents' income and optimize the consumption environment [3] Strategy Outlook - Following Trump's statement on potentially reducing tariffs on China, there has been a noticeable recovery in overseas market risk appetite, which is expected to positively influence domestic investor sentiment [4] - The upcoming Politburo meeting is anticipated to provide clear guidance on incremental policies, which could significantly impact market expectations [4] - Short-term focus areas include: (1) policy-driven opportunities in the consumer sector due to rising domestic demand; (2) investment opportunities in the TMT sector driven by domestic substitution and self-control initiatives; (3) defensive attributes in high dividend yield and stable cash flow sectors such as utilities [4]