Revenue Analysis - In Q1 2025, the national general public budget revenue was CNY 60,189 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%[2] - The national government fund budget revenue was CNY 9,247 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 11%[2] Expenditure Analysis - In Q1 2025, the national general public budget expenditure was CNY 72,815 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%[2] - The national government fund budget expenditure was CNY 19,769 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.1%[2] Tax Revenue Insights - Corporate income tax revenue decreased by 6.8% year-on-year, but the decline was less severe compared to previous months, indicating potential improvement in corporate profitability[3] - Value-added tax revenue continued to show positive growth, with an increased growth rate compared to earlier months, reflecting decent business activity[3] Public Finance Trends - The public finance expenditure growth rate was 4.2%, with social security and employment expenditures growing by 7.9% and education expenditures by 7.8%[4] - The first quarter accounted for 27.4% of the annual national general public budget revenue, below the five-year average of 28.0%[3] Fund Revenue and Expenditure Dynamics - The government fund revenue decreased by 11%, primarily due to a 15.9% drop in land transfer revenue[5] - The combined broad fiscal expenditure (public finance + government fund expenditure) grew by 5.6% year-on-year, significantly higher than the 2.7% growth rate for the entire year of 2024[5]

Macroeconomic Environment - The inflation expectations in the US are rising, while consumer confidence has significantly declined, indicating uncertainty in the trade environment that may support short-term economic activity but could weaken future demand [2] - The Federal Reserve faces challenges in achieving its dual mandate due to tariffs, with a focus on inflation stability before adjusting policy [2] - In Europe, inflation in the Eurozone has decreased, approaching the ECB's target, while economic downturn risks are increasing, leading to continued interest rate cuts [2] Domestic Economic Conditions - The domestic economy showed a stable and positive start in Q1, benefiting from export growth and supportive policies for consumption and investment [3] - New social financing and RMB loans exceeded market expectations, indicating strong government support [3] - However, issues such as supply-demand imbalance and low prices require coordinated fiscal and monetary policy efforts [3] High-Frequency Data - Real estate transactions are weak, and agricultural wholesale prices are declining, while steel and cement prices are also down [3] - Commodity prices show mixed trends, with coal and coke prices decreasing, while non-ferrous metal prices fluctuate [3] Fixed Income Market - Financial data indicates accelerated fiscal fund usage and active capital flow, with March export values showing double-digit year-on-year growth [4][5] - The central bank net injected 40.3 billion RMB during the reporting period, maintaining stable domestic funding prices [5] - The issuance of special government bonds is set to increase, with a total issuance of 1 trillion RMB planned, raising concerns about supply pressure in the bond market [5] Market Outlook - The impact of tariffs is expected to shift from a short-term variable to a long-term one, with the upcoming Politburo meeting being a key focus for potential policy changes [6] - The bond market is anticipated to remain volatile, influenced by tariff-related risk aversion and potential growth-stabilizing policies [6]

Macro and Strategy Research - The A-share market had a good start in Q1 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.76% and the ChiNext Index by 0.43% during the trading period from April 11 to April 17 [2] - In Q1, the GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year, driven by a 12.4% increase in exports in March and a 4.2% rise in fixed asset investment [2][7] - The service consumption sector is expected to receive supportive measures, particularly in areas like dining, tourism, and health services, as part of the government's strategy to boost domestic demand [3] Company Research: Aima Technology (603529) - Aima Technology reported a revenue of 21.606 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.71%, and a net profit of 1.988 billion yuan, up 5.68% [12] - The company’s gross margin and net margin improved to 17.82% and 9.31%, respectively, in 2024, with significant growth in Q4 driven by government policies promoting trade-in programs [13] - In Q1 2025, Aima is expected to achieve a net profit of 605 million yuan, a 25.12% increase year-on-year, benefiting from the trade-in policy [14] Company Research: Zijin Mining (601899) - Zijin Mining reported a revenue of 78.928 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a 5.55% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 10.167 billion yuan, up 62.39% [17] - The company experienced a 13.45% increase in gold production and a 9.49% increase in copper production in Q1 2025, alongside significant price increases for its main products [18] - Zijin Mining's share buyback plan, with a total investment of 600 million to 1 billion yuan, reflects confidence in its future growth prospects [18]

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market saw all major indices rise last week, with the STAR 50 index increasing by 7.05%, the highest among them, while the Shanghai 50 index had the smallest increase of 2.34% [2] - As of April 15, the margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 181.37 billion yuan, an increase of 2.87 billion yuan from the previous week [2] Group 2: Industry Insights - In the electronic, agriculture, and basic chemical industries, there was a significant net buying of financing, while the power equipment, communication, and computer industries saw less net buying [3] - The steel industry is expected to rebound as market sentiment improves following tariff exemptions announced by Trump, coinciding with the consumption peak season [5] - The copper market remains tight in supply, with cost support for prices, and recent tariff exemptions have led to a price rebound [5] - The engineering machinery industry reported an average operating rate of 44.67% in Q1, an increase of 1.62 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in construction activity [8][9] Group 3: Company Announcements - Ganfeng Lithium signed a cooperation letter of intent, indicating potential growth opportunities in the lithium sector [5] - Key companies in the engineering machinery sector, such as Sany Heavy Industry and XCMG, have announced share buyback plans, reflecting confidence in long-term growth [9] - In the light industry and textile sectors, companies like Oppein Home and Semir Garment have been recommended for investment, reflecting their strong performance against the market [12][13]

编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.04.16） 宏观及策略研究 出口压力已经开始显现——2025 年 3 月进出口数据点评 固定收益研究 收益率继续下行，短端信用利差已处历史低位——信用债周报 晨会纪要（2025/04/16） 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 晨会纪要（2025/04/16） 宏观及策略研究 出口压力已经开始显现——2025 年 3 月进出口数据点评 周 喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150511010017） 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 1、数据 海关总署发布最新贸易数据显示，2025 年 3 月美元计价中国出口同比增长 12.4%，前值增长 2.3%，市场预 期增长 4.6%；进口同比下降 4.3%，前值下降 8 ...

企业短贷改善明显――2025 年 3 月金融数据点评 基金研究 晨会纪要（2025/04/15） 编辑人 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.04.15） 宏观及策略研究 以沪深 300 为首的宽基指数大幅净流入，主动权益基金仓位上升——公募基 金周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 晨会纪要（2025/04/15） 宏观及策略研究 企业短贷改善明显――2025 年 3 月金融数据点评 王哲语（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150524070001） 周 喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150511010017） 3 月社融同比多增超 1 万亿元，为连续第 4 个月同比多增，主要支撑项有二，一是政府债券融资，3 月政府 债券净融资量同比多增超 1 万亿元，既有政府债供给额度提升的影响，也有供给节奏靠前的影响；二是表 内信贷融资，可能源于 3 月债券市场承压，信贷融资需求被动增加，同时，财政的持续发力积累见效， ...

宏观及策略研究 食品和能源价格下行，核心通胀升温――2025 年 3 月物价数据点评 波动加剧更看政策耐心——宏观经济周报 固定收益研究 晨会纪要（2025/04/14） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.04.14） 避险情绪升温――利率债周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 6 晨会纪要（2025/04/14） 宏观及策略研究 食品和能源价格下行，核心通胀升温――2025 年 3 月物价数据点评 王哲语（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150524070001） 周 喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150511010017） 李济安（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150522060001） 1、CPI：食品价格是主要拖累 2025 年 3 月 CPI 同比降幅收窄，主要与低基数效应有关，CPI 的环比降幅则进一步扩大，一是源于天气转 暖，部分鲜活食品大量上市，食品供应总体充足，带动食品价格环比下降 1 ...

究 报 SE TIPES 宏观经济分析报告 | | 食品和能源价格下行,核心通胀升温 | | --- | --- | | | -- 2025年3月物价数据点评 | | 分析师: 王哲语 | SAC NO: S1150524070001 2025 年 4 月 11 日 | | 证券分析师 | ● CPI:食品价格是主要拖累 | | 王哲语 | | | 022-23839051 | 2025年3月CPI同比降幅收窄,主要与低基数效应有关,CPI的环比降 | | wangzheyu@bhzq.com | 幅则进一步扩大,一是源于天气转暖,部分鲜活食品大量上市,食品供 | | | 应总体充足,带动食品价格环比下降 1.4%,占CPI总降幅六成,鲜菜、 | | | 猪肉降幅最为明显。二是源于国际油价下行,带动国内汽油价格环比下 | | 周喜 | 降 3.5%,占 CPI总降幅三成。三是旅游淡季出行人数减少,出行类价格 | | SAC NO: S1150511010017 | 有所下降。CPI 中表现较好的分项是扣除能源的工业消费品,价格环比 | | 022-28451972 | 上涨0.5%,涨幅较2月进一步扩大,尤其 ...

――宏观经济周报 分析师：周喜 SAC NO：S1150511010017 2025 年 4 月 11 日 证券分析师 周喜[Table_IndInvest] 022-28451972 zhouxi@bhzq.com 宏观经济分析报告 5 波动加剧更看政策耐心 宋亦威 [Table_IndInvest] SAC NO：S1150514080001 022-23861608 songyw@bhzq.com 严佩佩 SAC NO：S1150520110001 022-23839070 yanpp@bhzq.com 研究助理 靳沛[Table_I 芃 ndInvest] SAC NO：S1150124030005 022-23839160 jinpp@bhzq.com 风险提示：1.地缘政治风险：全球经贸局势不确定性抬升，或对市场风险 偏好形成扰动。2.经济和政策变化超预期：近来海外经济波动加剧，国内 经济正处于转型阶段，基本面超预期变动易引起相关政策调整。 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 7 证 券 研 究 报 宏 观 研 究 告 宏 观 周 报 就外围环境而言， ...

晨会纪要（2025/4/11） [Table_Contactor] 编辑人 [Table_MainInfo] 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要 崔健 022-28451618 SACNO: S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 宏观及策略分析 多措并举稳住股市，市场底部将获夯实——A 股市场投资策略周报 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 4 晨 会 纪 要 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨会纪要（2025/4/11） [Table_MorningSection] 宏观及策略分析 多措并举稳住股市，市场底部将获夯实——A 股市场投资策略周报 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 投资要点： 1、市场回顾 近 4 个交易日（4 月 7 日-4 月 10 日），重要指数纷纷收跌；其中，上证综指收跌 3.54%，创业板指收跌 7.98%； 风格层面，沪深 300 收跌 3.27%，中证 500 收跌 5. ...