Content: --------- <doc id='2'>金 融 工 程 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 融 资 融 券 周 报</doc> <doc id='9'>1. 市场数据概览 上周（2 月 4 日-2 月 10 日）A 股市场主要指数多数上涨，其中上证 50 涨幅最大， 上涨了 1.74%；创业板指跌幅最大，下跌了 0.13%。此外，上证综指上涨 1.49%， 深证成指上涨 0.59%，科创 50 上涨 0.03%，沪深 300 上涨 1.38%，中证 500 上 涨 0.24%。</doc> <doc id='10'>表 1：A 股市场主要指数上周表现 | 指数名称 | 2 月 3 日收盘价 | 2 月 10 日收盘价 | 周涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证综指 | 4067.74 | 4128.37 | 1.49 | | 深证成指 | 14127.11 | 14210.63 | 0.59 | | 创业板指 | 3324.89 | 3320.54 | -0.13 | | 科创 50 | 1471.07 | 1471.50 | 0.03 | | 沪深 300 | 4660.11 | 4724.30 | 1.38 | | 上证 50 | 3034.58 | 3087.41 | 1.74 | | 中证 500 | 8286.70 | 8306.44 | 0.24 | 资料来源：同花顺，渤海证券研究所 图 1：近一年沪深 300 收盘价与融资买入额占成交额比例</doc> <doc id='12'>资料来源：同花顺，渤海证券研究所 2 月 10 日，沪深两市两融余额为 26,517.83 亿元，较上周减少 459.93 亿元。其 中融资余额为 26,350.49 亿元，较上周减少 460.03 亿元；融券余额为 167.34 亿 元，较上周增加 0.10 亿元。</doc> <doc id='13'>表 2：三市融资融券余额 | 日期 | 沪深京三市余额 | 沪深两市余额 | 沪市余额 | 深市余额 | 京市余额 | 融资余额 | 融券余额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | （亿元） | （亿元） | （亿元） | （亿元） | （亿元） | （亿元） | （亿元） | | 2026-02-04 | 26,928.72 | 26,841.25 | 13,598.65 | 13,242.60 | 87.47 | 26,671.51 | 169.74 | | 2026-02-05 | 26,808.60 | 26,721.87 | 13,547.70 | 13,174.17 | 86.73 | 26,553.94 | 167.93 |</doc> <doc id='15'>| 2026-02-06 | 26,636.60 | 26,549.98 | 13,470.36 | 13,079.62 | 86.62 | 26,383.84 | 166.14 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-02-09 | 26,644.00 | 26,556.13 | 13,475.12 | 13,081.01 | 87.87 | 26,387.82 | 168.31 | | 2026-02-10 | 26,604.75 | 26,517.83 | 13,459.14 | 13,058.69 | 86.92 | 26,350.49 | 167.34 | 资料来源：同花顺，渤海证券研究所 图 2：近期融资业务情况（亿元） 图 3：近期融券业务情况（亿元）</doc> <doc id='24'>2 月 10 日，融资融券个人投资者数量为 798.23 万名，较上周增长 0.24%；融资 融券机构投资者数量为 51,114 家，较上周增长 0.11%。有融资融券负债的投资者 数量为 1,901,935 名，较上周下降 0.97%。户均融资融券余额为 1,398,825 元， 较上周减少 10,417 元。有融资融券负债的投资者数量占全体融资融券投资者数 量的占比为 23.68%，较上周减少 0.29 个百分点。2 月 4 日-2 月 10 日每日平均 参与融资融券交易的投资者数量为 432,017 名，较前一周下降 17.79%。</doc> <doc id='28'>2. 行业融资融券特征 从申万一级行业来看，煤炭、综合和轻工制造等行业涨幅较大，有色金属、通信 和国防军工等行业跌幅较大。</doc> <doc id='29'>资料来源：同花顺，渤海证券研究所 融资方面，传媒、综合和环保行业融资净买入额较多，有色金属、通信和非银金 融行业融资净买入额较少。</doc> <doc id='32'>资料来源：同花顺，渤海证券研究所 融券方面，上周传媒、煤炭和机械设备行业融券净卖出额较多，有色金属、食品 饮料和国防军工行业融券净卖出额较少。</doc> <doc id='35'>上周融资买入额占成交额比例较高的行业为非银金融、通信和电子，较低的行业 为纺织服饰、轻工制造和建筑材料；融资余额占流通市值比例较高的行业为计算 机、通信和国防军工，较低的行业为石油石化、银行和煤炭。</doc> <doc id='37'>行业名称 融资买入额占成交额(%) 较上周变化(pct.) 融资余额占流通市值(%) 较上周变化(pct.) 非银金融 11.13 0.10 3.04 -0.11 通信 10.57 -0.46 3.42 -0.13 电子 9.17 -0.14 3.13 -0.03 国防军工 8.73 -0.02 3.28 -0.03 计算机 8.63 -0.05 4.09 -0.02 电力设备 8.50 0.06 2.95 -0.07 有色金属 8.40 -1.14 2.76 -0.05 钢铁 8.13 -0.47 1.71 -0.08 银行 7.94 -1.01 0.82 -0.05 传媒 7.89 0.14 3.07 -0.04 煤炭 7.78 -0.79 0.88 -0.10 公用事业 7.74 -0.30 1.73 -0.02 美容护理 7.72 1.11 2.56 -0.12 汽车 7.72 0.01 2.97 -0.08 家用电器 7.67 0.32 2.01 -0.12 医药生物 7.61 -0.37 2.74 -0.11 机械设备 7.38 0.03 2.51 -0.07 建筑装饰 7.35 -0.83 2.37 -0.03 房地产 7.27 -0.45 3.05 -0.17 基础化工 7.25 -0.36 2.31 -0.09 综合 7.17 0.20 2.84 -0.14 农林牧渔 6.84 -0.46 2.73 -0.08 表 3：上周标的券所属行业融资情况</doc> <doc id='39'>| 交通运输 | 6.64 | -1.07 | 1.38 | -0.09 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 食品饮料 | 6.62 | -0.13 | 1.16 | -0.05 | | 石油石化 | 6.40 | -0.70 | 0.66 | -0.03 | | 环保 | 6.32 |

证券分析师 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2026.02.11） 固定收益研究 净融资额继续增加，信用利差整体走阔——信用债周报 行业研究 春节假期临近，关注节后需求——金属行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 晨会纪要（2026/02/11） 晨会纪要（2026/02/11） 固定收益研究 净融资额继续增加，信用利差整体走阔——信用债周报 李济安（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150522060001） 王哲语（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150524070001） 1、核心观点 本期（2 月 2 日至 2 月 8 日）交易商协会公布的发行指导利率多数上行，整体变化幅度为-1 BP 至 4 BP。本 期信用债发行规模环比增长，企业债保持零发行，公司债、中期票据、定向工具发行金额增加，短期融资 券发行金额减少；信用债净融资额环比增加，短期融资券净融资额减少，其余品种净融资额增加，企业债 净融资额为负，其余品种 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - During the period from February 2nd to February 8th, most of the issuance guidance rates announced by the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors increased, with an overall change range of -1 BP to 4 BP. The issuance scale of credit bonds increased month - on - month, corporate bonds remained at zero issuance, the issuance amounts of corporate bonds, medium - term notes, and private placement notes increased, while the issuance amount of commercial paper decreased. The net financing amount of credit bonds increased month - on - month, the net financing amount of commercial paper decreased, the net financing amounts of other varieties increased, and the net financing amount of corporate bonds was negative [1][60]. - In the secondary market, the trading volume of credit bonds continued to decline month - on - month. The trading volume of private placement notes increased, while the trading volumes of other varieties decreased. Most of the yields of credit bonds declined, and most of the credit spreads widened. In terms of quantiles, most of the spreads were at historical lows, and the quantiles of 7 - year varieties were relatively high [1][60]. - From an absolute return perspective, the relatively strong allocation demand will drive the credit bond market to continue its recovery. Although fluctuations and adjustments are inevitable under the influence of both positive and negative factors, the conditions for a comprehensive bear market in credit bonds are still insufficient. In the long run, the yields are still on a downward path, and the idea of increasing allocation during adjustments is still feasible. From a relative return perspective, the compression space of credit spreads at all tenors is insufficient at present, and the cost - effectiveness of most varieties for allocation is not high. The coupon strategy should be cautious in the current allocation thinking, and the trading thinking should be moderately optimistic. The key to bond selection is to keep an eye on the changing trend of interest - rate bonds and pay attention to the coupon value of individual bonds [1][60]. - The central and local governments continue to actively optimize real - estate policies, which have played a positive role in promoting the stabilization of the real - estate market. Although the real - estate market is still in the transition period between old and new models, it is moving towards stabilization. The subsequent policy rhythm and intensity are worth looking forward to. For real - estate bonds, investors with high risk appetite can consider early layout, focusing on enterprises with outstanding new financing and sales recovery, and balancing risks and returns. The focus of allocation is still on central and state - owned enterprises with stable historical valuations and excellent performance, as well as high - quality private enterprise bonds with strong guarantees. They can also appropriately bet on the trading opportunities brought by the valuation repair of bonds of over - sold real - estate enterprises [2][63]. - For urban investment bonds, under the principle of coordinating development and security, the probability of default is very low, and they can still be a key allocation variety for credit bonds. Under the strict supervision of the clearance of local financing platforms, the reform and transformation of financing platforms are accelerating. Opportunities for the reform and transformation of "entity - type" financing platforms can be concerned. With a coupon - oriented approach, appropriate positive actions can be taken. The allocation strategy can give priority to short - to medium - term credit sinking, and the trading strategy can still choose to extend the duration of medium - to high - grade bonds [3][63]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market Situation 3.1.1 Issuance and Maturity Scale - From February 2nd to February 8th, a total of 440 credit bonds were issued, with an issuance amount of 356.856 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 15.70%. The net financing amount of credit bonds was 255.063 billion yuan, an increase of 95.222 billion yuan month - on - month [12]. - By variety, corporate bonds had zero issuance with a net financing amount of - 1.818 billion yuan; corporate bonds issued 190 with an issuance amount of 144.4 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 57.73%, and a net financing amount of 122.621 billion yuan; medium - term notes issued 126 with an issuance amount of 110.337 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 32.30%, and a net financing amount of 87.862 billion yuan; commercial paper issued 90 with an issuance amount of 81.706 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 31.91%, and a net financing amount of 35.325 billion yuan; private placement notes issued 34 with an issuance amount of 20.413 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 51.26%, and a net financing amount of 11.073 billion yuan [13]. 3.1.2 Issuance Interest Rates - Most of the issuance guidance rates announced by the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors increased, with an overall change range of -1 BP to 4 BP. By tenor, the interest rate change range of 1 - year varieties was 0 BP to 3 BP, 3 - year varieties was -1 BP to 3 BP, 5 - year varieties was -1 BP to 4 BP, and 7 - year varieties was -1 BP to 4 BP. By rating, the interest rate change range of key AAA - rated and AAA - rated varieties was -1 BP to 1 BP, AA + - rated varieties was -1 BP to 2 BP, AA - rated varieties was 3 BP to 4 BP, and AA - - rated varieties was 3 BP to 4 BP [14]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation 3.2.1 Market Trading Volume - From February 2nd to February 8th, the total trading volume of credit bonds was 871.756 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 6.58%. The trading volumes of corporate bonds, corporate bonds, medium - term notes, commercial paper, and private placement notes were 15.904 billion yuan, 354.344 billion yuan, 312.069 billion yuan, 131.161 billion yuan, and 58.278 billion yuan respectively. The trading volume of credit bonds continued to decline month - on - month, the trading volume of private placement notes increased, while the trading volumes of other varieties decreased [17]. 3.2.2 Credit Spreads - For medium - and short - term notes, all varieties' credit spreads widened. For enterprise bonds, most varieties' credit spreads widened, with the spreads of 1 - year AA - rated and AA - - rated, and 3 - year AA - - rated varieties narrowing. For urban investment bonds, most varieties' credit spreads widened, with the spreads of 3 - year AA - - rated, 5 - year AA - rated and AA - - rated varieties narrowing [20][29][37]. 3.2.3 Term Spreads and Rating Spreads - For AA + medium - and short - term notes, the 3Y - 1Y term spread narrowed by 2.69 BP, the 5Y - 3Y spread widened by 1.32 BP, and the 7Y - 3Y spread widened by 1.60 BP. In terms of rating spreads, the 3 - year (AA - )-(AAA) spread remained unchanged, the (AA)-(AAA) spread narrowed by 1.00 BP, and the (AA + )-(AAA) spread narrowed by 1.00 BP [45]. - For AA + enterprise bonds, the 3Y - 1Y term spread widened by 0.84 BP, the 5Y - 3Y spread narrowed by 1.00 BP, and the 7Y - 3Y spread narrowed by 0.73 BP. In terms of rating spreads, the 3 - year (AA - )-(AAA) spread narrowed by 4.00 BP, the (AA)-(AAA) spread narrowed by 1.00 BP, and the (AA + )-(AAA) spread remained unchanged [49]. - For AA + urban investment bonds, the 3Y - 1Y term spread narrowed by 0.83 BP, the 5Y - 3Y spread widened by 0.70 BP, and the 7Y - 3Y spread narrowed by 1.34 BP. In terms of rating spreads, the 3 - year (AA - )-(AAA) spread narrowed by 3.21 BP, the (AA)-(AAA) spread narrowed by 2.01 BP, and the (AA + )-(AAA) spread narrowed by 1.01 BP [52]. 3.3 Credit Rating Adjustment and Default Bond Statistics 3.3.1 Credit Rating Adjustment Statistics - According to iFinD statistics, there were no company rating (including outlook) adjustments during the period from February 2nd to February 8th [57]. 3.3.2 Default and Extended - Maturity Bond Statistics - According to iFinD statistics, there were no defaults or extended - maturity of credit bonds issued by any issuer during the period from February 2nd to February 8th [58]. 3.4 Investment Views - The same as the core views mentioned above, including the analysis of credit bonds, real - estate bonds, and urban investment bonds [1][2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the steel industry and the non-ferrous metals industry, with "Buy" ratings for specific companies including Luoyang Molybdenum, Zhongjin Gold, Huayou Cobalt, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [8]. Core Insights - The steel market is expected to weaken due to seasonal factors, with a focus on demand recovery after the Spring Festival [19][20]. - Copper prices may rise if demand improves post-holiday, despite current inventory accumulation [40]. - The aluminum sector is influenced by macroeconomic sentiment, with a focus on demand recovery after the Spring Festival [46]. - Gold prices are supported by geopolitical risks, with potential upward pressure from U.S. Federal Reserve policies [52]. - The rare earth market is expected to maintain tight supply conditions, supporting prices for praseodymium and neodymium [66]. Summary by Sections Steel Industry - Steel production is declining as companies prepare for the Spring Festival, with total inventory increasing [19][21]. - As of February 6, the total steel inventory was 13.39 million tons, up 4.36% week-on-week, but down 19.42% year-on-year [28]. - The average price index for steel on February 6 was 3,414.24 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous week [37]. Copper Industry - Copper prices have decreased, but new orders are increasing, indicating seasonal demand characteristics [40]. - As of February 6, LME copper prices were $12,800/ton, down 3.96% from January 30 [43]. Aluminum Industry - Domestic bauxite supply is sufficient, but aluminum processing companies are reducing production due to price volatility and regulatory pressures [46]. - As of February 6, LME aluminum prices were $3,000/ton, down 2.09% from January 30 [47]. Precious Metals - Geopolitical tensions and U.S. economic data are influencing gold prices, which are expected to find support from these factors [52]. - As of February 6, COMEX gold prices were $4,988.60/oz, up 1.65% from January 30 [52]. Rare Earths - The supply of praseodymium and neodymium is expected to remain tight, supporting price stability [66]. - As of February 6, the price of praseodymium oxide was 757,500 yuan/ton, up 1.20% from January 30 [66].

Macro and Strategy Research - Long-term care insurance (referred to as "long-term care insurance") is designed to mitigate the financial risks associated with long-term disabilities, providing economic security or service payments to individuals requiring ongoing personal care and medical assistance. There are three models in practice: social insurance, commercial insurance, and care allowances. To address the medical care needs arising from an aging population, China's long-term care insurance system has been piloted in 49 cities, transitioning from a "pilot" phase to a "promotion" phase during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [2][4]. - Japan's long-term care insurance was implemented in 2000, mandating that individuals over 40 must enroll. Funding is shared equally between public funds (taxes) and insurance premiums. Care service costs are generally covered 90% by the insurance, with individuals responsible for 10%, and some high-income groups covering 20-30%. The application process for care services follows a detailed recognition process, ensuring that public resources are prioritized for those in greatest need. As of April 2024, approximately 6.7% of the insured population utilizes care services, indicating that the insurance primarily addresses the low-frequency, high-risk care needs of the elderly [3]. - Currently, China's long-term care insurance system is still in the "pilot" stage, with only 0.8% of beneficiaries among participants as of 2024. Under the directive to "promote long-term care insurance" during the 14th Five-Year Plan, provinces like Hainan, Yunnan, and Hebei have released implementation plans. The insured groups include employees, retirees, flexible workers, and unemployed rural residents, with payment ratios of approximately 70% for employees and around 50% for non-employed rural residents [4]. - In comparison, there are notable differences between China's long-term care insurance and Japan's system in terms of funding sources, insured groups, benefit systems, and protected populations. Japan's long-term care insurance has undergone eight rounds of reforms, emphasizing a "prevention-first" approach, which can help control costs and establish community prevention and intervention systems for mild disabilities, serving as a significant reference for China's long-term care insurance system [5]. Fund Research - The public fund market saw a total scale exceeding 280 billion yuan, with the equity market experiencing a downturn. During the week from February 2 to February 6, 2026, all major equity indices declined, with the largest drop being 5.76% in the STAR 50 index. Among 31 primary industries, 18 saw gains, with the top five performing sectors being food and beverage, beauty care, electrical equipment, comprehensive, and transportation [6][8]. - The average decline for equity funds was 2.27%, with only 18.81% achieving positive returns. Fixed-income plus funds fell by an average of 0.23%, with 40.77% showing positive returns. Pure bond funds increased by 0.08%, with a remarkable 98.70% positive return rate. The average decline for pension target funds was 0.73%, with only 3.52% achieving positive returns. QDII funds also saw an average decline of 2.54%, with 13.95% showing positive returns [8]. - The ETF market experienced a net inflow of 14.899 billion yuan, with only cross-border ETFs achieving net inflows of 21.624 billion yuan. The average daily trading volume in the ETF market reached 619.629 billion yuan, with an average turnover rate of 9.49% [8]. Industry Research - The report highlights the importance of the upcoming Spring Festival consumption, with a focus on the potential recovery of valuations in the home furnishing sector. Nine departments have jointly issued a document to create a festive consumption atmosphere during the Spring Festival [10][13]. - From February 2 to February 6, the light industry manufacturing sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.29 percentage points, while the textile and apparel sector outperformed by 2.66 percentage points [10]. - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments have launched the "2026 'Happy Shopping Spring' Special Activity Plan," which will take place from February 15 to 23, aiming to stimulate consumption through innovative cross-sector collaborations and incentives to enhance consumer participation. This policy is expected to positively impact the consumption of home appliances and home decoration products during the implementation period [13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the light industry manufacturing and textile apparel sectors is maintained at "Neutral" [7][43]. Core Insights - The report highlights the upcoming "2026 'Le Gou New Spring' Special Activity Plan" issued by nine departments, aimed at boosting consumption during the Spring Festival from February 15 to 23, which is expected to stimulate demand in key consumer sectors such as home furnishings, home appliances, and home decoration [6][42]. - The report notes a price increase of 50 yuan/ton for various paper products, including kraft and corrugated paper, effective from March 2, driven by changes in market supply and demand dynamics [6][15]. - The light industry manufacturing sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.29 percentage points during the period from February 2 to February 6, with a sector performance of 0.96% compared to the CSI 300's -1.33% [4][35]. - The textile and apparel sector also outperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.66 percentage points during the same period, with a sector performance of 1.32% [4][39]. Summary by Sections Industry News - The "2026 'Le Gou New Spring' Special Activity Plan" aims to enhance consumption through innovative cross-sector collaborations and incentives to stimulate immediate consumer spending [6][15]. - The report mentions a price adjustment in the paper industry, indicating a recovery in the corrugated paper market due to various factors including reduced production and low inventory levels [6][15]. Key Company Recommendations - The report recommends "Buy" ratings for companies such as Oppein Home (603833), Sophia (002572), and Semir Apparel (002563) [4][43]. - The report also highlights the performance of companies like Tianan New Materials and Jian Sheng Group, noting their recent share buybacks and shareholder actions [3][34]. Market Performance - The light industry manufacturing sector's performance was bolstered by factors such as changes in control and acquisitions, while some companies faced adjustments due to previous overvaluation [4][36]. - The textile and apparel sector saw significant gains in specific companies, with notable increases in stock prices for firms like Cai Bai Co. and Bang Jie Co. [4][39].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the importance of establishing a long-term care insurance (LTCI) system in China to address the financial risks associated with long-term disabilities and to provide economic security for individuals requiring continuous care [2][11][14] - The report outlines three models of LTCI: social insurance, commercial insurance, and care allowances, highlighting the characteristics and objectives of each model [11][12][13] - The report indicates that China's LTCI system is currently in the pilot phase, with plans to transition to a broader implementation during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, aiming to establish a comprehensive care system for the elderly [15][16] Group 2 - The report provides insights into Japan's long-term care insurance (介护险) system, which was established in 2000, requiring individuals over 40 to participate, with funding shared between government and insurance fees [18][21] - It details the current status of Japan's介护险, noting that as of April 2024, the number of insured individuals aged 65 and above reached 35.91 million, with service users totaling 5.29 million, indicating a significant increase since the system's inception [31][34] - The report discusses the reform directions of Japan's介护险, focusing on transitioning from passive care to proactive prevention, restructuring financial burdens, and integrating medical and care information systems [37][40] Group 3 - The report outlines the current state of China's LTCI, noting that as of 2024, 18.786 million individuals are participating, representing 50% of the basic medical insurance group, with a gradual increase in the number of beneficiaries [44][47] - It highlights the differences between China's LTCI and Japan's介护险 in terms of funding sources, coverage, and benefit structures, emphasizing China's focus on establishing a self-sustaining insurance model [56][57] - The report suggests that Japan's experience in developing a preventive care system can provide valuable lessons for China as it seeks to establish its LTCI framework [60]

证券分析师 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 晨会纪要（2026/02/09） 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2026.02.09） 宏观及策略研究 关注资金变动，把握品种利差——利率债 2 月投资策略展望 经济预期分化，市场波动加剧——宏观经济周报 行业研究 业绩预告密集披露，关注改善标的——医药生物行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 6 晨会纪要（2026/02/09） 宏观及策略研究 关注资金变动，把握品种利差——利率债 2 月投资策略展望 王哲语（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150524070001） 周 喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150511010017） 李济安（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150522060001） 1、2026 年 1 月市场回顾 资金价格：2026 年 1 月，央行各项工具流动性净投放 1.2 万亿元，较 2025 年 12 月增加近 4000 亿元，其中， 买断式逆回购、MLF 均超量续作，呵护资金 ...

固 定 收 益 研 究 固定收益月报 关注资金变动，把握品种利差 ――利率债 2 月投资策略展望 | 分析师： | 王哲语 | SAC NO： | 年 | 月 | 日 | S1150524070001 | 2026 | 2 | 6 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Table_Author] | 年 | 月市场回顾 |  | 2026 | 1 | 证券分析师 | [Table_IndInvest] | | | | | | 资金价格：2026 | 年 | 1 月，央行各项工具流动性净投放 | 1.2 万亿元，较 |  | 2025 | 王哲语 | 年 | 12 月增加近 | 4000 亿元，其中，买断式逆回购、MLF | 均超量续作，呵护 | 022-23839051 | | 资金面的意愿，同时也降低了春节前降准的必要性。1 | 月资金价格整体抬 | wangzheyu@bhzq.com | 升，DR007 | 上行至 | 1.5%以上，与年初季节性因素、政府债供给放量预期等 ...

Economic Overview - The US ISM non-manufacturing PMI remained stable in January, while the manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations, marking the largest expansion since February 2022[2] - Price pressures are rising, and employment is slightly weakening, posing challenges for businesses[2] - The geopolitical tensions have led companies to stock up in advance to mitigate uncertainties[2] Domestic Economic Conditions - January PMI data shows seasonal weakness, indicating insufficient domestic demand, with the construction PMI returning to contraction territory[2] - Local government meetings have resulted in lowered economic growth targets for most provinces, focusing on stabilizing investment and promoting technological innovation[2] - The real estate market shows slight recovery in transaction volumes, while agricultural wholesale prices are declining[2] Commodity Prices - Upstream coal prices are rising, while prices for non-ferrous metals and gold are declining, and crude oil prices have retreated[2] - Steel and cement prices are on a downward trend, reflecting broader commodity market dynamics[2] Policy and Market Implications - The new Fed chair nomination has increased global asset volatility, with potential implications for economic support and structural reforms[2] - The European Central Bank has maintained interest rates, downplaying the impact of a stronger euro on the economy[2]