晨会纪要（2025/4/10） [Table_Contactor] 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SACNO: S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com [Table_MainInfo] 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要 行业专题评述 金融工程研究 主要指数全部调整，两融余额大幅下降——融资融券周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 3 月挖机销售延续高景气，关注关税政策变化——机械设备行业周报 晨会纪要（2025/4/10） [Table_MorningSection] 行业专题评述 3 月挖机销售延续高景气，关注关税政策变化——机械设备行业周报 宁前羽（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150522070001） 1、行业要闻 （1）3 月挖掘机销量为 29590 台，同比增长 18.50%； （2）3 月装载机销量为 13917 台，同比增长 12.90%； （3）中共中央、国务院印发《加快建设农业强国规划（2024-2035 年）》。 2、公司公告 （1）徐工机械拟回购公司股份用于实施股权激励 ...

晨会纪要（2025/4/9） [Table_Contactor] 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SACNO: S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com [Table_MainInfo] 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要 行业专题评述 3 月钴价大幅上行，4 月需关注关税政策走向——金属行业 4 月投资策略展 望 金融工程研究 收益率下行，积极寻找较高性价比的品种——信用债 4 月投资策略展望 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 晨会纪要（2025/4/9） [Table_MorningSection] 行业专题评述 3 月钴价大幅上行，4 月需关注关税政策走向——金属行业 4 月投资策略展望 张珂（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150523120001） 核心观点 1、行业数据 （1）钢铁：预计 4 月钢铁需求将继续回暖，钢厂生产也将随之提升，供需双增格局下，价格或震荡运行； 需关注实际需求恢复情况、国内宏观政策和国外关税措施对价格的影响。 （2）铜：铜矿端持续偏紧，铜价下方有支撑，4 月是传统消费 ...

收益率下行，积极寻找较高性价比的品种 ――信用债 4 月投资策略展望 分析师：李济安 SAC NO：S1150522060001 2025 年 4 月 8 日 核心观点： 3 月各期限发行指导利率有所分化，整体表现为中高等级走阔，低等级 收窄态势，整体变化幅度为-30 BP 至 11 BP。3 月信用债发行规模环比增长， 企业债零发行，其余品种发行金额增加；信用债净融资额环比减少，各品种 净融资额均减少，中期票据净融资额为正，其余品种净融资额为负。二级市 场方面，3 月信用债成交规模环比大幅增长，各品种成交金额均增加。收益 率方面，3 月信用债收益率整体下行，均值较 2 月明显下降。信用利差方面， 中短期票据、企业债、城投债多数品种信用利差走阔。分位数来看，目前高 等级品种分位数普遍仍高于其余等级，AAA 级处于 9%~35%左右分位，其 余等级品种普遍处于 10%以内分位。绝对收益角度来看，相对旺盛的配置需 求推动修复行情再次启动，尽管多空因素影响下震荡调整难以避免，但总体 而言，信用债全面走熊的条件依旧不充分，长远来看未来收益率仍将步入下 行通道，逢调整则增配的思路依然可行；相对收益角度来看，短端信用利差 ...

行 业 研 究 （1）铜/铝：铜矿供应干扰不断，从原料端对铜价格形成支撑；随氧化铝新 项目产能释放，电解铝厂利润有扩张的预期。需关注国内经济刺激政策和海 外关税政策的影响，建议关注相关板块。（2）黄金：近期金价上涨，与避险 情绪和美国关税政策有关；长期看，美国居高不下的债务和赤字率、美国潜 在的再通胀风险、全球复杂的地缘局势、多国央行购金等因素均利好金价， 建议关注相关板块。综上，我们维持对钢铁行业的"中性"评级、对有色金 属行业的"看好"评级，维持对洛阳钼业（603993）、中金黄金（600489）、 山东黄金（600547）、紫金矿业（601899）、中国铝业（601600）的"增持" 评级。 风险提示 原材料价格波动风险、下游需求不及预期风险、地缘政治扰动风险。 [Table_MainInfo] 3 月钴价大幅上行，4 月需关注关税政策走向 ――金属行业 4 月投资策略展望 | 究 | 分析师： 张珂 | | | | SAC NO： 年 月 S1150523120001 2025 4 8 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | [Tab ...

晨会纪要（2025/4/8） [Table_Conta 编辑人 ctor] 崔健 022-28451618 SACNO: S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com [Table_MainInfo] 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要 宏观及策略分析 受外盘大幅波动影响，A 股市场出现异动——A 股市场异动点评 行业专题评述 美国加征关税力度超预期，将加速推动扩大内需——轻工制造&纺织服饰行 业周报 金融工程研究 多只红利指数即将发布，主动权益基金仓位下降——公募基金周报 主要指数多数调整，两融余额小幅上升——融资融券 4 月月报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 6 [Table_MorningSection] 宏观及策略分析 受外盘大幅波动影响，A 股市场出现异动——A 股市场异动点评 晨会纪要（2025/4/8） 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 投资要点： 1、4 月 7 日，A 股市场出现异动。重要指数在全球 ...

晨会纪要（2025/4/7） [Table_Contactor] 编辑人 [Table_MainInfo] 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要 崔健 022-28451618 SACNO: S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 宏观及策略分析 外部不确定性暂时落地，关注稳内需增量举措——A 股市场投资策略周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 4 [Table_MorningSection] 宏观及策略分析 外部不确定性暂时落地，关注稳内需增量举措——A 股市场投资策略周报 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 投资要点： 1、市场回顾 近 5 个交易日（3 月 28 日-4 月 3 日），重要指数纷纷收跌；其中，上证综指收跌 0.94%，创业板指收跌 3.72%； 风格层面，沪深 300 收跌 1.80%，中证 500 收跌 1.88%。成交量方面有所 ...

Core Viewpoints - The excavator sales show a significant recovery trend, with domestic market sales reaching 17,000 units in January-February 2025, a year-on-year increase of 51.40% [4] - The government work report emphasizes stabilizing the real estate market, which is expected to drive demand for construction machinery through urban renewal and old community renovations [4] - The humanoid robot sector is experiencing rapid advancements, with Tesla planning to produce 5,000 humanoid robots in 2025 and aiming for a production target of 50,000 units by 2026 [4] Market Overview - From March 2 to April 1, 2025, the CSI 300 index decreased by 0.06%, while the Shenwan Machinery Equipment sector fell by 0.83%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 0.77 percentage points [3] - As of April 1, 2025, the TTM price-to-earnings ratio for the Shenwan Machinery Equipment sector was 28.47 times, with a valuation premium of 140.80% compared to the CSI 300 [3] Individual Stock Performance - Notable stock performers included Zhejiang Huaye (up 160.61%), Klete (up 107.01%), and Changfu Co. (up 92.60%), while stocks like Xinyuan Technology (down 36.01%) and *ST Xinyan (down 32.60%) faced significant declines [3] Investment Strategy - The report maintains a "positive" rating for the machinery equipment industry and recommends "overweight" ratings for companies such as Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion Heavy Industry, Hengli Hydraulic, and CRRC [5]

Group 1: Semir Apparel (002563) 2024 Annual Report - The company reported a revenue of 14.626 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.06%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.137 billion yuan, up 1.42% year-on-year. The basic earnings per share is 0.42 yuan, with a proposed cash dividend of 3.5 yuan per 10 shares [2] - In Q4 2024, the company saw a significant improvement in performance, with revenue growth of 9.76% year-on-year and a net profit increase of 32.07% year-on-year. The company's inventory turnover rate improved to 2.64 times, and the days of inventory turnover decreased by 19 days to 140 days [3] - The company has successfully opened over 500 "New Semir" stores nationwide and achieved a threefold increase in the scale of popular products. The children's clothing brand, Balabala, achieved a revenue of 10.268 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.55% [3][4] Group 2: China Aluminum (601600) 2024 Annual Report - The company achieved a revenue of 237.066 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.21%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.4 billion yuan, up 85.38% year-on-year [9] - The production of metallurgical-grade alumina increased by 1.2% to 16.87 million tons, while the production of primary aluminum rose by 12.1% to 7.61 million tons. The average price of domestic alumina increased by 39.9% year-on-year [10] - The company is actively expanding its resource base, adding 73.55 million tons of new resources in 2024, and has initiated multiple new projects, including clean energy initiatives that account for 45.5% of its electrolytic aluminum production [10][11] Group 3: Public Fund Market Overview - In March, 77 new funds were issued with a total scale of 63.583 billion yuan, including 12 active equity funds with a scale of 3.698 billion yuan. The active equity fund segment saw a significant increase in popularity [15] - The average performance of various fund types showed that commodity funds had the highest positive return rate at 88.57%, while large-scale equity funds performed better than smaller ones [15] - The ETF market experienced a net outflow of 39.155 billion yuan, with the average daily trading volume reaching 2.524 trillion yuan [16] Group 4: Equity Market Trends - Major equity indices continued to decline, with the historical percentile of price-to-earnings ratios for the ChiNext and Shanghai Composite Index dropping significantly [18] - The real estate sector showed the highest valuation percentile at 93.3%, indicating potential correction risks, while several sectors, including agriculture and non-bank financials, had low valuation percentiles below 20% [18] - The overall performance of equity funds was poor, with the average net value of mixed equity funds declining by 0.52% [18]

Macro and Strategy Analysis - The report discusses the evolution of fiscal policy in major economies, particularly the United States, highlighting a shift from laissez-faire to state intervention and from balanced budgets to functional finance [2] - It outlines four phases of U.S. fiscal policy: pre-1930 classical economics, Keynesianism from 1930 to 1960, new classical economics from 1970 to 2000, and a return to Keynesianism from 2000 to present [2] - The report notes that since the Great Depression, U.S. fiscal policy has transitioned from a "small government" approach to a more expansive fiscal policy, especially post-2008, with increased government spending and support for social welfare [2] Industry Review - The report highlights the digital transformation in the light industry, emphasizing the potential for leading companies to enhance their intelligence capabilities [4] - It mentions that in January-February 2025, the paper and paper products industry achieved a total profit of 5.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.7% [4] - Key announcements include Jia Yi Co. projecting a 55.27% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2024, and Wei Xing Co. expecting a 25.48% increase in the same period [4] Market Performance - From March 24 to March 28, the light manufacturing industry underperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.83 percentage points, while the textile and apparel industry lagged by 2.39 percentage points [6] - The report indicates that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a digital transformation implementation plan for the light industry, aiming for significant advancements by 2030 [6] Financial Engineering Research - The report outlines the regulatory evolution of quantitative trading in China, noting that as of March 21, 2025, there are 646 quantitative funds with a total scale of 234.577 billion yuan [8] - It highlights that index-enhanced funds account for 66.24% of the total scale of quantitative funds, with a significant number tracking the CSI 300 index [8] Credit Bond Report - As of March 28, 2025, the report indicates a general decline in issuance rates for credit bonds, with a net financing increase in short-term financing bonds and corporate bonds [11] - It suggests that the current market conditions favor a strategy of increasing allocations to short-term bonds while monitoring the impact of growth policies on the bond market [11]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Analysis - The U.S. economy shows signs of weakening, with policy fluctuations impacting corporate and consumer expectations, leading to a "stagflation" scenario [2][3] - The Federal Reserve maintains a neutral policy stance, with market expectations for interest rate cuts potentially starting in June [2] - In the Eurozone, market risk appetite has increased due to expectations of a ceasefire in Ukraine and fiscal expansion in Germany, despite the European Central Bank's recent rate cuts [3] Group 2: Domestic Economic Environment - China's economy started the year steadily, with government policies aimed at expanding domestic demand due to weaker export growth [3][4] - Positive macro policies are needed to boost consumer confidence, local government infrastructure investment, and corporate profits [3] - The government has prioritized expanding domestic demand, with fiscal policies showing a proactive stance, although challenges remain in fiscal revenue [4] Group 3: Financial Market Overview - In Q1 2025, the bond market faced significant supply pressure, with a total issuance of 7.6 trillion yuan, much higher than previous years [6] - The bond market experienced an upward adjustment in interest rates, with a notable shift from "loose monetary" to "tight monetary" policies [6][7] - The outlook for Q2 suggests potential for interest rate recovery, particularly in short-term instruments, with monetary policy and funding conditions being key focus areas [8] Group 4: Credit Bond Market Insights - The report highlights the relationship between credit bond yields and interest rate bonds, indicating that credit spreads reflect the strength of credit bonds relative to interest rate bonds [9] - Historical trends show that credit bond yields are currently at low levels, with the need for more active trading strategies to enhance returns [11][12] - The report anticipates continued downward pressure on credit bond yields, with fluctuations expected but not significant in magnitude [12] Group 5: Fund Management and Investment Strategies - The report discusses the importance of public funds in market pricing and asset allocation, emphasizing the need for a high-frequency, dynamic model to estimate fund positions [14][15] - Various models, including Lasso and Kalman Filter, were tested for their effectiveness in estimating fund positions, with Lasso performing best for equity funds [15] - Recent fund position estimates indicate a correlation between fund adjustments and market movements, highlighting the impact of market volatility on fund strategies [15]