行 业 研 究 [Table_MainInfo] 国内旺季需求待验证，刚果（金）暂停钴出口 | | | | | | ――金属行业 | | 3 | 月月报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 分析师： | 张珂 | | | S1150523120001 | | 2025 | 年 3 | 月 4 | 日 | | [Table_Author] 证券分析师 张珂 | | [Table_Summary] | | | | | | | | | | | 投资要点： 行业数据 | | | | | | | | | | | | SAC NO： | | | | | | | | 022-23839062 | |  | | | | | | | | 钢铁：3 月是传统旺季，建材端需求有望逐渐回暖，叠加汽车等行业支撑板 zhangke@bhzq.com 材端需求，钢价或受需求带动回暖，但需关注实际需求恢复情况；同时需关 注国内宏观政策和国外关税措施的对价格的影响。 铜：铜矿端持续偏紧，铜价下方有支撑；3 月是传统旺季，"两新"政策有望 刺激 ...

宏 观 研 究 | | | 宏观经济分析报告 chunj 政策预期锚点回归基本面 ――2025 年 3 月宏观经济月报 | 分析师： | 周喜 | | SAC NO： | S1150511010017 | 2025 | 年 | 2 月 | 28 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师 | | | | | | | | | | 周喜[Table_IndInvest] | |  | 海外经济及政策环境 | | | | | | | 022-28451972 | | | | | | | | | 尽管当下美国数据存在一定的季节性和技术性因素扰动，但是"通胀反 弹、就业强韧"的组合足以让美联储保持"不急于降息"的政策态度，同 时留有时间对潜在关税和移民政策变化可能给通胀带来不利影响做进一步 评估。联邦基金利率期货市场显示联储会在 7 月前后重启降息，该时点较 2 月初已有所提前。短期我们判断由于关税政策落地较慢、俄乌冲突谈判推 进和经济指标走弱，市场降息预期仍会有所提高。 随着欧央行持续降息效果显现以及俄乌冲突谈判介入，欧洲经 ...

行 业 研 究 行业周报 [Table_MainInfo] 人形机器人催化频出，建议持续关注产业链投资布局机会 | | | | ――机械设备行业周报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 分析师： 宁前羽 | | SAC NO： S1150522070001 | | 2 | | | | | | | | | 2025 | 年 | 月 26 日 | | [Table_Author] 证券分析师 | | [Table_Summary] | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 宁前羽 | | 投资要点： | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 022-23839174 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ningqy@bhzq.com | |  行业要闻 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 431 | （1 ...

行 业 研 究 行业周报 [Table_MainInfo] 钢铁下游复苏向好，关注稀土首批配额 ――金属行业周报 分析师： 张珂 SAC NO： S1150523120001 2025 年 2 月 25 日 [投资要点： Table_Summary] 行业情况及产品价格走势初判 钢铁：节后需求复苏，供应也将随需求增长，当前库存仍在积累，去库拐点 需等待来临；若需求恢复趋势较好带动库存下降，钢价或震荡走强。 铜：铜矿持续偏紧，原料端对铜价有支撑；铜库存的累积对铜价有压制；宏 观不确定因素较多，市场进入两会前的政策等待期，若两会有超预期的利好， 或将提振铜价；若美国继续加大关税的力度和范围，或对铜价走向有扰动。 铝：当前国内宏观经济宽松预期和消费季节性回暖预期对铝价有支撑，但库 存压力和成本松动限制铝价上行空间，需关注海外货币、关税和贸易政策的 动向，以及国内下游需求的实际恢复情况。 黄金：美国关税政策持续扰动市场，俄乌冲突的谈判充满争议，避险情绪推 [Table_Author] 证券分析师 张珂 022-23839062 zhangke@bhzq.com [Table_Contactor] [Table_Ind ...

晨会纪要（2025/2/21） 宏观及策略分析 崔健 022-28451618 SACNO: S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com [Table_MainInfo] 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要 [Table_Contactor] 编辑人 悦己消费遇谷子经济，成就千亿市场崛起——谷子经济行业专题报告 证 券 研 究 报 告 民营企业信心获提振，题材支撑市场维持活跃——A 股市场投资策略周报 行业专题评述 晨 会 纪 要 1.市场回顾 近 5 个交易日（2 月 14 日-2 月 20 日），重要指数纷纷收涨；其中，上证综指收涨 0.55%，创业板指收涨 2.27%； 风格层面，沪深 300 收涨 0.61%，中证 500 收涨 1.01%。成交量方面有所放量，两市统计区间内成交 8.93 万 亿元，较前五个交易日增加 1091.71 亿元，日均成交达到 1.79 万亿元。行业方面，申万一级行业跌多涨少， 其中，机械设备、通信、医药生物行业涨幅居前，而煤炭、房地产、传媒行业跌幅居前。 2.数据方面 2025 年 1 月社融同比多增近 6000 亿元，表内信贷和政府债券融资是主要支撑。1 月人民 ...

A 股投资策略报告 +-[Table_MainInfo] 民营企业信心获提振，题材支撑市场维持活跃 策 略 研 究 告 周 ――A 股市场投资策略周报 | 分析师： 宋亦威 | | SAC NO： S1150514080001 2025 | 年 | 2 | 月 | 20 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Table_Analysis] 证券分析师 | [Table_Summary] 投资要点： | | | | | | | | 宋亦威 |  市场回顾，近 | 5 个交易日（2 月 14 日-2 月 20 日），重要指数纷纷收涨； | | | | | | | 022-23861608 | | 其中，上证综指收涨 0.55%，创业板指收涨 2.27%；风格层面，沪深 | | | | | 300 | | songyw@bhzq.com | 收涨 | 0.61%，中证 收涨 1.01%。成交量方面有所放量，两市统计区 500 | | | | | | | | 间内成交 | 8.93 万亿元，较前五个交易日增加 1091.71 | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the light industry and textile apparel sectors, while recommending an "Overweight" rating for specific companies including Oppein Home, Sophia, Explorer, Semir Apparel, and Guibao Pet [30][7][29]. Core Insights - The European Union has made a preliminary anti-dumping ruling against Chinese decorative paper, imposing temporary anti-dumping duties ranging from 31.0% to 34.9% on involved companies [12][4]. - Adidas is strategically positioning itself in the Chinese sports market through a partnership with Tsinghua University, focusing on technology innovation and talent development in the sports industry [12]. - The integration of AI models like DeepSeek by home appliance and furniture companies is expected to enhance their capabilities in customization, design, production, marketing, and operations, thereby improving customer service and consumer experience [6][29]. Industry News - The light industry sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.42 percentage points from February 17 to February 21, with a decline of 0.42% compared to the index's increase of 1.00% [6][23]. - The textile and apparel sector also lagged behind the CSI 300 index, underperforming by 1.91 percentage points during the same period, with a decline of 0.91% [25][6]. - The report highlights the performance of specific stocks, with notable gains in companies like Shengtong Co. (32.00%) and QuSleep Technology (25.83%) [24][6]. Company Announcements - Ruierte reported a 13.81% decline in net profit for 2024, despite a revenue increase of 8.23% [5][23]. - Pearl River Piano has entered a strategic partnership with Lehai Musical Instruments to establish a benchmark in the national musical instrument industry [6][23].

宏观经济分析报告 分析师：周喜 SAC NO：S1150511010017 2025 年 2 月 21 日 59 海外地缘波动不定，国内迎信贷开门红 ――宏观经济周报 证券分析师 周喜[Table_IndInvest] 022-28451972 zhouxi@bhzq.com 宋亦威 [Table_IndInvest] SAC NO：S1150514080001 022-23861608 songyw@bhzq.com 严佩佩 SAC NO：S1150520110001 022-23839070 yanpp@bhzq.com 研究助理 靳沛[Table_IndInv 芃 est] SAC NO：S1150124030005 022-23839160 jinpp@bhzq.com 就外围环境而言，美国方面，1 月零售销售数据高位回落，环比增速创近 1 年以来最大跌幅，一方面是受美国南部地区寒潮和洛杉矶山火等极端事件 影响，另一方面是假期过后消费的阶段性回归。由于零售销售数据更多反 映商品消费，因此更为全面的消费情况还需月末个人消费支出数据确认。 另外，美国 1 月工业产出环比增速超预期上行，主要受供热等公用事业 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Positive" [2][25] - Specific companies such as SANY Heavy Industry (600031), Zoomlion (000157), Hengli Hydraulic (601100), and CRRC (601766) are rated as "Buy" [2][25] Core Insights - In January 2025, the average working hours for major construction machinery products was 74.6 hours, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.61% but a month-on-month decrease of 20.6% [7] - The average operating rate for major construction machinery products in January 2025 was 56.2%, an increase of 1.43 percentage points year-on-year but a decrease of 8 percentage points month-on-month [7] - The excavator sales in 2024 reached 201,100 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.13%, with domestic sales showing significant growth while exports experienced a slight decline [25] Industry News - SANY Heavy Industry is planning to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance its global strategy and improve governance transparency [14] - Changfu Co. reported a 6.91% year-on-year increase in revenue for 2024, benefiting from the steady progress of national nuclear power construction [15] Market Review - From February 12 to February 18, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.76%, while the Shenwan Machinery Equipment sector fell by 0.44%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite by 1.21 percentage points [17] - As of February 18, 2025, the price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the Shenwan Machinery Equipment sector was 27.42 times, with a valuation premium of 125.06% compared to the Shanghai Composite [18] Upcoming Projects - A cross-border railway construction agreement between Mongolia and China is expected to start in April 2025, which may boost demand for rail transit equipment [25]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the light manufacturing industry [6]. Core Insights - The "Guzi" economy, which refers to merchandise derived from two-dimensional culture IPs, is rapidly developing with a market size projected to reach 168.9 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth of 40.63% from 2023, and is expected to exceed 300 billion yuan by 2029 [1][18]. - The industry chain of the Guzi economy encompasses various segments, including IP creation, operation, production, and terminal channels, with an average gross margin exceeding 40% [1][25]. - The Z generation (born between 1995-2010) is the primary consumer group, particularly in first-tier cities, with strong purchasing power driven by emotional satisfaction and identity recognition [1][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Rapid Development of the Guzi Economy - The Guzi economy is characterized by a market size surpassing 150 billion yuan, with significant growth potential [1.1]. - The industry chain includes multiple segments, each with favorable profit margins [1.2]. 2. Expanding Audience and Collaborative Development - The pan-two-dimensional population in China is steadily increasing, expected to reach 503 million by 2024, creating a favorable environment for the Guzi economy [2.1]. - The domestic animation and gaming industries are thriving, with sales revenues of 300 billion yuan and 245.92 billion yuan respectively in 2023 [2.2]. - The number of offline Guzi stores has exceeded 3,000, indicating a trend of expansion [2.3]. - The rise of self-satisfying consumption post-pandemic aligns well with the characteristics of the Guzi economy, which offers emotional fulfillment with low investment [2.4]. - The integration of the Guzi economy with the "first-release economy" is expected to elevate the industry in the medium to long term [2.5]. 3. Investment Strategy - The Guzi economy presents new monetization models for companies with IPs, particularly in the light manufacturing sector, which has already established a presence in IP co-branded products [3].