行 业 研 究 [Table_MainInfo] "两新"政策加力扩围，宠物食品进口关税上调 ――轻工制造&纺织服饰行业周报 | | 分析师： 袁艺博 | | | | SAC NO： | | | S1150521120002 | | 年 2025 | 月 1 | 6 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | [Table_Author] 证券分析师 | | [Table_Summary] 投资要点： | | | | | | | | | | | | | 袁艺博 | | 行业要闻 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 022-23839135 yuanyb@bhzq.com | | （1）2025 | | | | 年多个纸种继续实施进口零关税。 | | | | | | | | | [Table_Contactor] | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | [Table_Contactor] [Table_IndInvest] 子行业 ...

业 ――金属行业 1 月月报 [Table_Author] 证券分析师 张珂 022-23839062 zhangke@bhzq.com 分析师： 张珂 SAC NO： S1150523120001 2025 年 1 月 2 日 [Table_Contactor] [Table_IndInvest] 行业评级 钢铁 中性 有色金属 看好 [Table_StkSuggest] 月度股票池 洛阳钼业 增持 中金黄金 增持 山东黄金 增持 锡业股份 增持 紫金矿业 增持 中国铝业 增持 行业月报 [Table_MainInfo] 受节假日等因素影响，部分品种供需或走弱 究 研 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 行业数据 铜：考虑到铜矿偏紧、冶炼加工费下跌和 1 月节假日的影响，预计铜供给将 下滑；需求方面，预计 1 月家电领域需求表现较好，而其他需求领域将走入 淡季，铜价或延续高位震荡。 钢铁：1 月在节日假期影响下，供需两端均有走弱的预期，同时特朗普上台 后加征关税有落地的可能，钢价或继续承压。 铝：1 月特朗普正式上台后加征关税落地的预期压制铝价；氧化铝方面，随 着国内氧化铝新项目的落地，氧化铝供应偏 ...

行 ——机械设备行业 1 月月报 [Table_Author] 证券分析师 宁前羽 022-23839174 ningqy@bhzq.com [Table_Contactor] [Table_IndInv 子行业评级 est] 通用设备 看好 专用设备 中性 交运设备 中性 工程机械 看好 自动化设备 看好 [Table_StkSuggest] 月度股票池 三一重工 增持 中联重科 增持 恒立液压 增持 中国中车 增持 -15.00% -10.00% -5.00% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% 业 行业月报 [Table_MainInfo] 工程机械开工表现较好，关注下游需求改善 研 究 分析师： 宁前羽 SAC NO： S1150522070001 2025 年 1 月 2 日 证 研 券 究 告 报 [Table_IndQuotePic] 最近半年行业相对走势 行 业 月 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 报 行情回顾 2024 年 12 月 1 日-2024 年 12 月 31 日，沪深 300 指数上涨 0.47% ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the Light Industry Manufacturing and Textile & Apparel sectors [3][4] Core Views - The home furnishing sector is expected to benefit from policy-driven demand recovery and valuation repair, with the PE-TTM of the Shenwan Home Furnishing sector at 18.66x, below the 5-year median of 24.60x [1] - The paper products sector saw a price increase due to production cuts and price hikes by leading companies, with whiteboard paper, coated paper, and corrugated paper rising by 250 yuan/ton, 200 yuan/ton, and 180 yuan/ton respectively [22][58] - The textile and apparel sector outperformed the CSI 300 by 3.39 percentage points, driven by strong performance in the apparel and home textile sub-sector [3][39] Industry Development Overview - From January to November, domestic furniture retail sales reached 150.49 billion yuan, up 2.9% YoY, while furniture manufacturing revenue was 601.68 billion yuan, up 0.8% YoY [10] - In November, furniture exports declined by 2.6% YoY to 5.929 billion USD, while furniture accessory exports grew by 0.5% YoY to 249 million USD [11] - The Building Materials Home Index (BHI) fell to 118.24 in November, down 9.41 points MoM, reflecting a seasonal slowdown post the "Golden September and Silver October" period [12] Paper Industry Data - From January to November, domestic paper and paperboard production increased by 9.1% YoY to 144.18 million tons [45] - In November, paper pulp imports fell by 13.2% YoY to 2.8 million tons, while paper and paper product exports rose by 10.8% YoY to 1.44 million tons [45] Textile and Apparel Industry Data - From January to November, retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles reached 1.307 trillion yuan, up 0.4% YoY, with clothing sales flat at 949.3 billion yuan [48] - In November, footwear exports declined by 1.9% YoY to 3.783 billion USD, while apparel exports grew by 4.3% YoY to 13.017 billion USD [49] Market Performance - From November 22 to December 27, the Light Industry Manufacturing sector outperformed the CSI 300 by 0.15 percentage points, with the entertainment sub-sector leading with an 8.85% gain [38] - The Textile & Apparel sector outperformed the CSI 300 by 3.39 percentage points, driven by strong performance in the apparel and home textile sub-sector [39] Policy and Strategy - The report highlights the potential for valuation repair in the home furnishing sector due to policy support for domestic demand expansion and the "old-for-new" consumer goods replacement policy [1][41] - The paper products sector is expected to see improved profitability due to price hikes and seasonal demand support from the upcoming Spring Festival [22][58]

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Overweight" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for its future performance [67] Core Views - The company is a leading domestic pet food enterprise with a strong self-owned brand, continuously expanding and moving towards high-end markets [3] - The pet industry is in a favorable development phase, with the company benefiting from its strong R&D capabilities and product differentiation [3] - The company's self-owned brand, "Myfoodie," has achieved significant growth, with a CAGR of 40.33% from 2020 to 2023 [32] - The company's direct sales channel exceeded 1 billion yuan, with impressive performance during key e-commerce sales events like "618" and "Double 11" [39] Company Development and Brand Strategy - The company was founded in 2006, starting with OEM/ODM business and launched its self-owned brand "Myfoodie" in 2013 [3] - The company has been focusing on high-end markets since 2019, launching high-end cat food brand "Fleigarte" and acquiring the US brand "Waggin'Train" in 2021 [12] - In 2024, the company further advanced its high-end strategy by introducing a high-end dog food brand "Wang Zhen Chun" [12] - The company's self-owned brand revenue reached 2.745 billion yuan in 2023, accounting for a leading share in the industry [3] Financial Performance - The company's revenue in 2023 was 4.327 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 27.4% [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company in 2023 was 429 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 60.7% [4] - The company's gross profit margin increased from 32.6% in 2022 to 36.8% in 2023, and is expected to reach 40.6% by 2026 [4] - The company's net profit margin is projected to increase from 7.8% in 2022 to 12.1% by 2026 [4] R&D and Product Innovation - The company's R&D capabilities have effectively translated into product strength, with significant sales during key e-commerce events [3] - The company has developed a variety of product lines, including dual-grain series, probiotic-based main food series, and freeze-dried products [5][6][7] - The company's R&D expenses increased from 68 million yuan in 2022 to 132 million yuan in 2026, reflecting its commitment to innovation [4] Market and Industry Overview - The domestic pet industry exceeded 300 billion yuan in 2024, with the pet food industry reaching 158.506 billion yuan [82] - The pet food industry is expected to grow to 404.2 billion yuan by 2027, with significant potential in the cat food market [82] - Domestic pet food brands are gradually rising, with increasing consumer preference for local brands [82] Sales and Distribution Channels - The company's direct sales revenue reached 1.236 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 57.02% [39] - The company's online sales during "618" and "Double 11" in 2024 increased by 40% and 65% respectively [3] - The company's distribution channel revenue reached 1.668 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 35.45% from 2020 to 2023 [25] Geographic and Supply Chain Advantages - The company is located in Shandong, a major agricultural province, providing it with a supply chain advantage [43] - The company has diversified its supply chain, reducing its reliance on single suppliers, with the top five suppliers accounting for 15.91% of total procurement in 2023 [50] Future Projections - The company's revenue is expected to reach 7.575 billion yuan by 2026, with a CAGR of 18.4% from 2024 to 2026 [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to reach 912 million yuan by 2026, with a CAGR of 25.9% from 2024 to 2026 [4] - The company's EPS is expected to increase from 1.43 yuan in 2024 to 2.28 yuan in 2026 [55]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant trend towards high-horsepower tractors and emphasizes the investment opportunities arising from the increase in agricultural mechanization rates. It notes that since 2004, the proportion of agricultural employment in China has been declining, reaching only 22.57% in 2022. This reduction in agricultural labor necessitates a shift towards large-scale mechanized agricultural production to ensure food security [5][6]. - The report indicates that while the mechanization rates for crops like wheat and corn are relatively high, there remains substantial room for improvement in the overall mechanization rate. As of 2023, the total number of tractors in China is approximately 21.13 million, with large and medium tractors accounting for 26.07% of this total, reflecting a clear trend towards higher horsepower tractors [5][6]. - The report also discusses the growth in the area of contracted farmland, which has increased from 6.4 million acres in 2007 to 57.6 million acres in 2022, with some provinces reaching a land transfer rate of 50%. This trend supports the development of large-scale, intensive, and modern agricultural operations, positively impacting agricultural productivity and farmer income stability [6]. - The report notes that in 2024, the government will adjust subsidies for agricultural machinery purchases and scrapping, which will lower the costs of acquiring agricultural machinery and promote mechanization levels. Additionally, the recovery of agricultural machinery exports is expected to improve domestic demand, supported by favorable domestic policies [6][19]. - The company has seen revenue recovery in the first three quarters of 2024, with net profit continuing to rise, aided by the reduction of low-efficiency assets since 2017. The company leads in market share for large and medium tractors, showcasing its competitive advantages in high-end agricultural machinery [6][7]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, originally established as the First Tractor Manufacturing Plant in 1955, has evolved into a major player in China's agricultural machinery industry, with both A and H shares listed. The company has a stable shareholding structure, with the largest shareholder holding 48.81% of the shares [16][27]. Industry Background - The agricultural machinery sector is diverse, with tractors being a primary tool. The report emphasizes the ongoing need for mechanization in China's agriculture, highlighting the potential for growth in this area [39][40]. Financial Analysis - The report provides financial forecasts for the company, projecting total revenue of 11.93 billion, 12.79 billion, and 14.01 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. Net profits are expected to be 1.02 billion, 1.15 billion, and 1.33 billion yuan for the same years, with corresponding EPS of 0.91, 1.02, and 1.18 yuan [7][8]. Profitability Forecast - The report anticipates a PE ratio of 16.74 for 2024, indicating a positive outlook for the company's profitability and growth potential [7][8].

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2.2 铜 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 9 of 20 资料来源:iFinD、渤海证券研究所 不足；随着 12 月国内重要会议的结束，短期铜价将缺乏增量政策预期的支撑; 考虑到目前铜矿对铜价有底部支撑，预计短期钢价震荡运行。 12 月 20 日中国铜冶炼厂粗炼费/精炼费分别为 8.42 美元/吨、0.84 美分/磅，环比 12 月 13 日均下降 14.08%。 12 月 20 日 LME 铜现货价、长江有色铜观货价分别为 0.88 万美元/吨、7.39 万元 /吨，环比 12 月 13 日分别下跌 2.18%、下跌 1.19%; 12 月 20 日 LME 钢库存、 SHFE 铜库存分别为 27.23 万吨、1.95 万吨，环比 12 月 13 日分别下降 0.18%、 增长 1.92%。 图 16: LMB 铜及 SHFE 铜日度库存(吨) 行业周报 资料来源：iFinD、渤海证券研究所 图 19: 氧化铝/动力煤/预培阳板日度价格（元/吨） 氧化铝 = =动力煤 一预培阳极 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 资料来源: iFinD、渤海证 ...

行 ――机械设备行业周报 [Table_Author] 证券分析师 宁前羽 022-23839174 ningqy@bhzq.com [Table_IndIn 子行业评级 vest] 通用设备 看好 专用设备 中性 交运设备 中性 工程机械 看好 自动化设备 看好 [Table_StkSuggest] 重点品种推荐 三一重工 增持 中联重科 增持 恒立液压 增持 中国中车 增持 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% 40.00% 45.00% 50.00% [Table_Doc] 业 行业周报 研 [Table_MainInfo] 11 月开工持续改善，国内小松挖机开工小时数为 105.4 小时 究 分析师： 宁前羽 SAC NO： S1150522070001 2024 年 12 月 18 日 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 行业要闻 （1）11 月叉车销量约 10.49 万台，同比增长 5.07%。 （2）11 月我国完成城轨客运量 27.1 亿人次，同比增长 5.2%。 （3）11 月我国小松挖掘机开工小时数为 105.4 ...

行 ――金属行业周报 分析师： 张珂 SAC NO： S1150523120001 2024 年 12 月 17 日 [Table_Author] 证券分析师 张珂 022-23839062 zhangke@bhzq.com [Table_Contactor] [Table_IndInvest] 行业评级 钢铁 中性 有色金属 看好 [Table_StkSuggest] 重点品种推荐 中国铝业 增持 洛阳钼业 增持 中金黄金 增持 山东黄金 增持 锡业股份 增持 紫金矿业 增持 业 研 [Table_MainInfo] 基本面受淡季影响，国内宏观环境向好 究 行业周报 [投资要点： Table_Summary] 行业情况及产品价格走势初判 钢铁：目前宏观政策趋势向好，后续淡季影响下，钢铁行业基本面或承压， 预计短期钢价将震荡运行，需关注冬储情况。 铜：目前铜矿供应偏紧，对铜价有支撑；考虑到美国 12 月降息预期和国内宏 观政策环境向好，需求淡季内预计短期铜价震荡运行。 铝：季节性消费淡季内，需求对铝价拉动效果较为有限；原料端氧化铝价格 涨幅收窄，预计短期铝价震荡运行。 锂：12 月为传统淡季，预计后续需求转弱 ...