Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the steel industry and a "Positive" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, with "Buy" ratings for specific companies including Luoyang Molybdenum, Zhongjin Gold, Huayou Cobalt, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [7][8]. Core Insights - The geopolitical situation continues to create volatility, but gold prices are expected to remain supported due to ongoing tensions [3][52]. - The steel industry is anticipated to see improved profitability due to the implementation of growth policies and an optimistic demand outlook in sectors like shipbuilding and construction [4][5]. - The copper market is expected to tighten due to supply constraints from major mines, while demand is projected to increase in sectors such as electric power grids and new energy vehicles [4][41]. - The aluminum sector faces challenges with oversupply in alumina and potential short-term price corrections, but the demand from the new energy vehicle sector remains a key focus [4][48]. - The rare earth industry is expected to see a revaluation of related companies due to China's export controls and the strategic importance of rare earth resources [7][4]. Summary by Sections Steel Industry - Current steel mill inventory pressure is not significant, and short-term demand decline is limited, with expectations of price support before the Spring Festival [5][19]. - As of January 16, 2026, the total steel inventory was 12.4955 million tons, a decrease of 0.39% from the previous week, but an increase of 7.72% year-on-year [26][27]. - The comprehensive price index for steel on January 16, 2026, was 3,457.46 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.15% increase from the previous week [39][40]. Copper Industry - The copper market is facing a lack of driving force for price increases, but expectations for 2026 remain positive due to anticipated demand growth [3][41]. - As of January 16, 2026, LME copper prices were 13,000 USD/ton, with SHFE copper prices at 101,900 CNY/ton, showing a slight decrease in LME prices but an increase in SHFE prices [46]. Aluminum Industry - The aluminum processing sector is currently in a contraction phase, with a PMI of 42.4% as of December 2025 [48]. - The average price of alumina on January 16, 2026, was 2,666 CNY/ton, down 1.00% from the previous week [49]. Precious Metals - The geopolitical landscape and mixed economic data from the U.S. are influencing gold prices, which are expected to remain supported [52]. - As of January 16, 2026, COMEX gold prices were 4,601.10 USD/oz, reflecting a 1.83% increase from the previous week [53].

Macro and Strategy Research - The performance of corporate credit is better than that of household credit, with a slight year-on-year decrease in RMB loans in December 2025, where corporate short-term and medium-to-long-term loans significantly outperformed the same period in 2024 [3][5] - The increase in M2 year-on-year indicates a positive trend, with non-bank financial institutions showing better deposit performance compared to the same period in 2024 [4][5] - The financial data for December 2025 highlights the growth in corporate credit, while household credit remains under pressure, necessitating further observation of sustainability [5] Fixed Income Research - Green bonds are defined as securities issued to raise funds specifically for green industries, projects, or economic activities, with a cumulative issuance scale of 5.32 trillion yuan by the end of 2025 [6][9] - The development of China's green bond market can be divided into three stages: exploratory phase (2015), standardized development phase (2016-2020), and system improvement phase (2021-present), with significant growth in issuance scale and variety [9][10] - Green bonds generally exhibit a stable interest rate advantage, with their issuance rates lower than corresponding non-green bonds, although this advantage has slightly diminished in recent years [10] Fund Research - The first gold ETF exceeding 100 billion yuan has been established, indicating a significant milestone in the market [11] - The public fund market saw a net outflow of 157.33 billion yuan in the ETF sector, with stock-type ETFs experiencing the largest outflow [12][13] - The average performance of equity funds was positive, with a 74.98% positive return ratio, while fixed income funds also showed strong performance [11][12] Industry Research - The focus on cultivating service consumption is emphasized, with sports events and IP+ consumption expected to benefit directly from new policies aimed at enhancing service consumption [14][15] - Recent announcements include measures from the Shanghai government to promote service industry quality and consumption expansion, indicating a shift towards service sector reform [14] - The light industry and textile sectors have shown mixed performance, with the light industry underperforming the CSI 300 index while the textile sector slightly outperformed it [14][15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the light industry manufacturing and textile apparel sectors is "Neutral" [5][52]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the cultivation of service consumption, with sports events and IP+ consumption expected to benefit directly from new policies aimed at boosting service consumption [4][51]. - Recent government measures, including the "Several Measures to Promote the Quality Improvement and Efficiency Enhancement of the Service Industry" in Shanghai, aim to stimulate service consumption and enhance supply quality [12][51]. - The report highlights the expected performance of key companies, with Jia Mei Packaging forecasting a decline in net profit for 2025 by 43.02%-53.38%, while Wo Le Home is expected to see a growth of 40.78%-56.42% in the same period [41][42]. Industry News - The State Council is focusing on accelerating the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, particularly in sectors like transportation, home services, performances, and sports events [4][12]. - The Shanghai government has introduced 28 measures targeting six key industries to enhance service quality and stimulate consumption [12][51]. Important Company Announcements - Jia Mei Packaging anticipates a significant decline in net profit for 2025, projecting a profit of 85.44 million to 104.42 million yuan, a decrease of 43.02%-53.38% year-on-year [41]. - Wo Le Home expects a net profit increase for 2025, estimating a profit of 171 million to 190 million yuan, representing a growth of 40.78%-56.42% year-on-year [41]. Market Review - From January 12 to January 16, the light industry manufacturing sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.54 percentage points, while the textile apparel sector outperformed it by 0.02 percentage points [2][42]. - The light industry manufacturing index decreased by 1.11%, while the textile apparel index decreased by 0.55% during the same period [2][42]. Weekly Strategy - The report suggests continuous attention to sectors benefiting from the new service consumption policies, particularly in sports equipment, athletic apparel, and related fields [4][51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From January 12 to January 16, 2026, major equity market indices showed mixed performance, with the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index having the largest increase of 2.58%. Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 13 industries rose, with the top five gainers being Computer, Electronics, Non - Ferrous Metals, Media, and Machinery and Equipment, and the top five decliners being National Defense and Military Industry, Real Estate, Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery, Coal, and Banking [1][12]. - In the public fund market, the first domestic gold ETF with a scale exceeding 100 billion was born, and the latest expansion of Hong Kong Stock Connect ETF became effective. Among equity funds, partial - stock funds had the largest increase of 1.35% on average, and the proportion of positive returns was 74.98% [2][31]. - In the ETF market, the overall net capital outflow last week was 157.331 billion yuan, with stock - type ETFs having the largest net outflow of 141.643 billion yuan. Software services, media, semiconductors, non - ferrous metals, and commercial space were the main sectors with capital inflows, while broad - based indices related to CSI 300, SSE STAR Market 50, ChiNext, SSE 50, and CSI Small - cap 500 saw significant capital outflows [3][44][45]. - In terms of fund issuance, 36 new funds were issued last week, 12 fewer than the previous period; 23 new funds were established, 12 more than the previous period, and the total funds raised by new funds were 19.294 billion yuan, 11.103 billion yuan more than the previous period [4] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Domestic Market Situation - From January 12 to January 16, 2026, major equity market indices showed mixed performance, with the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rising 2.58%. Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 13 industries rose, with the top five gainers being Computer, Electronics, Non - Ferrous Metals, Media, and Machinery and Equipment, and the top five decliners being National Defense and Military Industry, Real Estate, Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery, Coal, and Banking. In the bond market, the ChinaBond Composite Full - Price Index rose 0.14%, and the ChinaBond Treasury Bond, Financial Bond, and Credit Bond Total Full - Price Indices rose between 0.05% and 0.14%. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.08%, and the Nanhua Commodity Index in the commodity market rose 1.13% [1][12] 3.1.2 European, American, and Asia - Pacific Market Situation - Last week, major indices in European, American, and Asia - Pacific markets showed mixed performance. In the US stock market, the S&P 500 Index fell 0.20%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.32%, and the Nasdaq Index fell 0.66%. In the European market, the French CAC40 fell 1.23%, and the German DAX rose 0.14%. In the Asia - Pacific market, the Hang Seng Index rose 2.34%, and the Nikkei 225 rose 3.84% [19] 3.1.3 Market Valuation Situation - Last week, the valuation quantiles of major market indices mostly rose. In terms of the historical quantiles of price - to - earnings ratio, the ChiNext Index had the largest increase of 2.9 pct. In terms of the historical quantiles of price - to - book ratio, the CSI 500 had the largest increase of 2.2 pct. Among industries, the top five industries with the highest historical quantiles of price - to - earnings ratio of the Shenwan primary index were Electronics, Real Estate, Computer, Commercial Trade, and Comprehensive. The price - to - earnings ratio quantile of Electronics remained at a high level, and the price - to - earnings ratio quantile of Real Estate reached 95.1%. The bottom five industries with low historical quantiles of price - to - earnings ratio were Non - Banking Finance, Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery, Food and Beverage, Beauty and Care, and Communication, and the valuation of the Non - Banking Finance industry was close to its historical low since 2013 [22] 3.2 Active Public Fund Situation 3.2.1 Market Hotspots - The first domestic gold ETF with a scale exceeding 100 billion was born. As of January 19, 2026, the scale of Huaan Gold ETF reached 101.528 billion yuan [31]. - The latest expansion of Hong Kong Stock Connect ETF became effective. Since January 19, 54 new ETFs were added to the northbound Shanghai - Hong Kong Stock Connect, and 44 new ETFs were added to the northbound Shenzhen - Hong Kong Stock Connect. Seven ETFs were temporarily removed from the Mainland - Hong Kong Stock Connect targets. After the adjustment, the total number of ETFs covered by the "ETF Connect" increased from 273 to 364, an increase of more than 30% [32] 3.2.2 Fund Performance - Among equity funds, partial - stock funds had the largest increase of 1.35% on average, and the proportion of positive returns was 74.98%; fixed - income + funds rose 0.32% on average, and the proportion of positive returns was 87.09%; pure - bond funds rose 0.10% on average, and the proportion of positive returns was 98.67%; pension target FOFs rose 0.58% on average, and the proportion of positive returns was 98.49%. In addition, QDII funds rose 0.97% on average, and the proportion of positive returns was 69.31% [2][32] 3.2.3 Industry Position and Overall Position - Through the calculation of the industry positions of active equity funds, the top industries with increased positions last week were Electronics, Power Equipment, and Non - Ferrous Metals; the top industries with decreased positions were Media, National Defense and Military Industry, and Computer. The overall position of active equity funds on January 16, 2026, was 79.71%, an increase of 4.16 pct. compared with the previous period [39][40] 3.3 ETF Fund Situation - Last week, the overall net capital outflow in the ETF market was 157.331 billion yuan. Stock - type ETFs had the largest net outflow of 141.643 billion yuan. The average daily trading volume of the overall ETF market last week reached 622.2 billion yuan, the average daily trading volume reached 248.479 billion shares, and the average daily turnover rate reached 9.96% [3][44] - In terms of individual bonds, software services, media, semiconductors, non - ferrous metals, and commercial space were the main sectors with capital inflows, while broad - based indices related to CSI 300, SSE STAR Market 50, ChiNext, SSE 50, and CSI Small - cap 500 saw significant capital outflows, mainly concentrated on January 15 and 16 [3][45] 3.4 Fund Issuance Statistics - Last week, 36 new funds were issued in China, 12 fewer than the previous period. Among them, there were 13 active partial - stock funds and 16 passive index funds. Ten of the passive index funds were stock - type funds, mainly tracking indices such as the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Theme, China Securities Consumption Electronics Theme, SSE STAR Market 200, and Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Theme. Currently, the issuance share of active equity funds is still at a historical low, but it has shown an obvious upward trend since this year [52] - Last week, 23 new funds were established in China, 12 more than the previous period. The total funds raised by new funds were 19.294 billion yuan, 11.103 billion yuan more than the previous period. The Fuda ChinaBond High - Grade Science and Technology Innovation and Green Bond A managed by Cheng Hao had the largest fundraising scale of about 4 billion yuan [57]

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Green bonds are securities raised for green industries, projects, or economic activities, and have become an important financing tool. As of the end of 2025, the cumulative issuance scale in China reached 5.32 trillion yuan [2]. - The development of China's green bond market can be divided into three stages: the exploration and launch stage (2015), the standardization development stage (2016 - 2020), and the system improvement stage (2021 - present) [2][16]. - By the end of 2025, the annual issuance scale increased from 207.231 billion yuan in 2016 to 1.079283 trillion yuan, and the number of issuances rose from 89 to 834. The stock of green bonds was 2,014, with a market size of 2.464521 trillion yuan. Green bonds are suitable for long - term investment [3][109]. - Green bonds generally have a "green spread" over non - green bonds, which has weakened in the past three years but still supports pricing. They are more suitable as a stable portfolio base rather than a source of significant excess returns [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Green Bond Development 1.1 Green Bond Concept - Green bonds are securities that raise funds for green industries, projects, or economic activities. They are divided into four types according to the "China Green Bond Principles (2022)" and play an important role in global green finance [13]. 1.2 Policy Context - China's green bond market has established a relatively complete system. The development is divided into three stages: - Exploration and launch stage (2015): The People's Bank of China and the National Development and Reform Commission issued relevant documents, marking the official start of the green bond market [16][17]. - Standardization development stage (2016 - 2020): Multiple departments issued a series of policies to improve the regulatory mechanism, project catalog, and evaluation and certification mechanism [16][18]. - System improvement stage (2021 - present): Policies continued to be refined, the standard system was integrated with international standards, and cross - border green financing advanced steadily [16][25]. 2. Green Bond Value 2.1 Value to Issuers - Green bonds generally have a lower issuance interest rate than non - green bonds, showing a "green spread," which has weakened in the past three years. They can also access overseas ESG funds [34]. 2.2 Value to Investors - Green bonds are fixed - income tools. Their credit risk is mainly determined by the issuer's quality and credit enhancement. They are suitable as a stable portfolio base and can meet institutional ESG and sustainable investment goals. Their tradability has also improved [46]. 3. Green Bond Issuance Statistics 3.1 Green Asset - Backed Securities - Their issuance rhythm has different stages. From 2016 - 2018, it was in the start - up phase; 2019 - 2020 saw market expansion; 2021 entered the accelerated development stage; 2022 - 2023 maintained a high - level operation; 2024 - 2025 had a decline in scale. They are mainly short - term and ultra - long - term products, with concentrated underlying assets [48][49]. 3.2 Non - Asset - Backed Green Bonds - The issuance showed phased characteristics. It expanded steadily from 2016 - 2020, jumped significantly in 2021, reached a high in 2022, declined in 2023, and significantly increased in 2025. State - owned enterprises are the main issuers, and bank - to - bank market is the main trading platform. Their issuance interest rate has been declining, and the term is mainly medium - short term [59][61][71]. 4. Green Bond Stock and Transaction Analysis 4.1 Green Bond Stock Analysis - As of the end of 2025, the stock of green bonds was 2,014, with a market size of 2.464521 trillion yuan. Financial bonds accounted for nearly half of the stock, followed by medium - term notes and asset - backed securities. The stock was concentrated in short - and medium - term bonds, a few industries, and regions such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong [83][90][95]. 4.2 Green Bond Transaction Analysis - The secondary - market trading volume of green bonds has been rising with fluctuations, and the turnover rate has shown a trend of "falling from a high level, fluctuating in the central range, and weakening again in recent years." Compared with credit bonds and financial bonds, the turnover rate of green bonds is relatively low, but it has stable trading and periodic surges. The valuation of green bonds shows a clear stratification [100][101][105]. 5. Investment Viewpoint - Similar to the core viewpoints, green bonds have good development prospects, supply - side expansion, and are suitable for long - term investment and portfolio optimization [108][109][110].

Group 1: Credit Performance - Corporate credit outperformed household credit in December 2025, with significant increases in short-term and medium-to-long-term loans compared to the same period in 2024[4] - Household sector continued to deleverage, with a net repayment in short-term loans and only 10 billion yuan in new medium-to-long-term loans, primarily due to poor real estate sales and decreased willingness to consume[4][21] - Overall, the total social financing scale increased by 3.34 trillion yuan year-on-year, reaching 35.6 trillion yuan for the entire year[13] Group 2: Monetary Supply and Deposits - M2 growth rate improved to 8.5% year-on-year in December 2025, up from 8% in November[13] - Non-bank financial institutions saw better deposit performance compared to 2024, influenced by regulatory changes in interbank deposit rates[5][23] - New household deposits exceeded those of 2024, indicating limited scale of deposit migration[5][24] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - Future positive factors include continued support from policy financial tools, proactive government bond financing, and structural interest rate cuts, with expectations for social financing growth to stabilize or slightly increase[6] - Risks include unexpected changes in the economic environment and policy adjustments that could impact market risk appetite and bond market dynamics[7][30]

晨会纪要（2026/01/19） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2026.01.19） 宏观及策略研究 海外降息趋弱，国内定调积极——宏观经济周报 固定收益研究 结构化降息落地——利率债周报 行业研究 荣昌生物与艾伯维签署授权许可协议，关注创新药产业链机遇——医药生物 行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 6 晨会纪要（2026/01/19） 宏观及策略研究 海外降息趋弱，国内定调积极——宏观经济周报 周 喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150511010017） 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 1、外围环境而言 美国方面，2025 年 12 月非农就业数据低于预期，其中以休闲酒店和教育健康为代表的服务业保持韧性，而 对利率更为敏感的传统周期性 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic and Strategy Research - In December 2025, China's exports increased by 6.6% year-on-year in USD terms, surpassing the previous growth of 5.9% and market expectations of 3.1%. Imports rose by 5.7%, up from 1.9% previously, exceeding the expected 0.9% [2] - The trade surplus reached $114.138 billion, compared to $111.676 billion previously, marking the third-highest level in history [2] - The export structure is improving, with significant contributions from high-tech and integrated circuit products, which accounted for over 6 percentage points of overall export growth [2] - The outlook for early 2026 suggests continued strong export performance due to favorable external conditions, including US-China trade relations and increased AI investment [3] Group 2: A-Share Market Investment Strategy - The A-share market is expected to undergo a phase of consolidation, with a narrowing range of active themes as the market adjusts after significant gains [4][5] - The central economic work conference has set a tone for capital market development, indicating a gradual expansion of public equity fund sizes and a balanced investment environment [5] - Investment opportunities are identified in the TMT sector and robotics, driven by ongoing AI capital expansion and domestic technology substitution [6] Group 3: Computer Industry Research - The computer industry saw a 13.38% increase in the Shenwan Computer sector from January 8 to January 14, 2026, with all sub-sectors experiencing growth [7] - The upcoming release of the DeepSeek V4 model is anticipated to accelerate the penetration of AI applications, with significant improvements in AI computing capabilities expected from new chip platforms [8][11] - The integration of AI technology into manufacturing is being promoted by government policies, which may enhance the application of AI across various industrial sectors [11]

Market Overview - The A-share market saw most major indices rise last week, with the CSI 500 experiencing the largest increase of 4.21%, while the SSE 50 had the largest decline of 0.82% [2] - As of January 13, the margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2,673.881 billion yuan, an increase of 102.270 billion yuan from the previous week [2] - The average daily number of investors participating in margin trading increased by 24.25% to 660,158 [2] Industry Insights - The machinery equipment industry is projected to sell 235,300 excavators in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 17% [5][6] - In December 2025, sales of various types of excavators reached 23,095 units, up 19.2% year-on-year, while sales of loaders reached 12,236 units, up 30% [5] - The average working hours for major construction machinery products in December 2025 was 76.5 hours [5] Company Announcements - Ruina Intelligent plans to invest 169.9 million yuan to establish a research and production base for efficient heat pumps [5] - Jiaotong Iron and Steel has received the 2025 China Railway Society Science and Technology Progress Award [5] Performance Review - From January 7 to January 13, the SSE 300 index fell by 0.62%, while the Shenwan Machinery Equipment industry rose by 3.30%, outperforming the SSE 300 index by 3.92 percentage points [6] - As of January 13, the price-to-earnings ratio (PE) for the Shenwan Machinery Equipment industry was 50.03 times, with a valuation premium of 245.85% compared to the SSE 300 [6] Future Outlook - The machinery equipment industry is expected to continue its recovery in 2026, supported by the implementation of major water conservancy projects and policies favoring large-scale equipment updates [6] - Domestic leading machinery manufacturers are accelerating their expansion into overseas markets, leveraging strong competitiveness in technology maturity and product cost-effectiveness [6]

Fixed Income Research - The issuance rates for credit bonds have generally increased, with changes ranging from 0 BP to 8 BP, leading to a significant increase in credit bond issuance volume due to a low base effect [2] - The net financing amount for credit bonds has increased, while the net financing for targeted tools has decreased; corporate bonds have a negative net financing amount, while other types have positive net financing [2] - The secondary market saw an increase in transaction amounts for credit bonds, with most types experiencing growth [2] - Credit spreads have narrowed for most mid-term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds, as credit bonds continue to perform better than interest rate bonds [2] - The overall conditions for a bear market in credit bonds are insufficient, with a long-term downward trend in yields expected [2] Company Research: WuXi AppTec (药明康德) - WuXi AppTec expects to achieve a revenue of approximately 45.456 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of about 15.84%, with continuous operating business revenue expected to grow by approximately 21.40% [6][7] - The adjusted non-IFRS net profit is projected to be around 14.957 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 41.33%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach approximately 19.151 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of about 102.65% [6][7] - The strong growth is attributed to the advantages of the CRDMO model, with a focus on integrated services and continuous optimization of production processes [7] - The company plans to focus on its CRDMO business model and has sold parts of its equity in joint ventures, contributing to its profit growth [7] Industry Research: Metal Industry - The steel industry is expected to maintain production levels due to acceptable profit margins, although demand is in a seasonal decline [13] - Copper prices are influenced by market sentiment and resource competition, with potential for high volatility [13] - Aluminum prices are supported by high copper prices and strategic resource concerns, while supply remains ample [13] - Gold prices are expected to remain strong due to geopolitical risks and mixed U.S. employment data [13] - The rare earth market is anticipated to strengthen due to export control measures and strategic importance [14]